Holliday, Mayo or Basallo

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I don't think I'd do any of them straight up for Skubal or Crochet, so a question if Getz or another GM loves one is would they add?

Dave Cameron's analysis of the Bedard trade started with "I think this was a bad trade if it was Adam Jones even up for Bedard", and that's basically the ballpark of the transaction if one of these guys move.  

Crochet and Fedde for Mayo?

Skubal and Flaherty for Holliday?

There is no fair market value for aces.  Pitching aces are an extremely limited commodities and teams will do what they can to obtain them.  Having an ace pitcher in the postseason is a big advantage.  If the O's had 2, that would be a huge advantage.  Very high demand and limited supply means price will skyrocket.  I would probably do Basallo for Crochet and Holliday for Skubal.  Fans of those teams would probably say those offers are jokes.  Whether in contract price or prospect value, the price is always more than you would rationally think.

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

There is no fair market value for aces.  Pitching aces are an extremely limited commodities and teams will do what they can to obtain them.  Having an ace pitcher in the postseason is a big advantage.  If the O's had 2, that would be a huge advantage.  Very high demand and limited supply means price will skyrocket.  I would probably do Basallo for Crochet and Holliday for Skubal.  Fans of those teams would probably say those offers are jokes.  Whether in contract price or prospect value, the price is always more than you would rationally think.

Good call but I do not think Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet are Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole or Zack Greinke or Corbin Burnes, and think Elias/Sigbot have good taste assessing the elite vs. the very good.

[sportsfan8703]

The case for Skubal,

Other than Burnes or a healthy Cole, Skubal is favored in every H2H SP matchup in the AL. 

So if you can roll into a best of 5 with the possibility of Burnes, Skubal, Grayson, Burnes, Skubal, you’re going to be favored every game. 

That’s worth it to me. 

A best of 7 series looks like,

Burnes, Skubal, Grayson, Burnes, Skubal, Grayson, Burnes. 

[dystopia]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The case for Skubal,

Other than Burnes or a healthy Cole, Skubal is favored in every H2H SP matchup in the AL. 

So if you can roll into a best of 5 with the possibility of Burnes, Skubal, Grayson, Burnes, Skubal, you’re going to be favored every game. 

That’s worth it to me. 

A best of 7 series looks like,

Burnes, Skubal, Grayson, Burnes, Skubal, Grayson, Burnes. 

When was the last time a team went with only 3 playoff starters? There will be a 4th playoff starter. The whole 3 days rest stuff is a thing of the past.

[Bemorewins]

9 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Good call but I do not think Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet are Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole or Zack Greinke or Corbin Burnes, and think Elias/Sigbot have good taste assessing the elite vs. the very good.

Would you be willing to further explain what you mean in stating that Skubal or Crochet are not Verlander/Cole/Greinke/Burnes?

Are you saying that because they are not veterans Elias/Sig would not be as interested?  Or are you saying that they are not elite pitchers? If so, can you name all of the starting pitchers in MLB that you think are better in 2024? … I can’t imagine that list is too long.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Would you be willing to further explain what you mean in stating that Skubal or Crochet are not Verlander/Cole/Greinke/Burnes?

Are you saying that because they are not veterans Elias/Sig would not be as interested?  Or are you saying that they are not elite pitchers? If so, can you name all of the starting pitchers in MLB that you think are better in 2024? … I can’t imagine that list is too long.

A pitcher's ability to sustain their craft all season long is part of their quality.    Luhnow's three and Elias' one acquisition demonstrated that ability prior to the old Astros and today's Orioles making big investments in them.     Skubal and Crochet never have.

I agree at midseason 2024 they have been top pitchers so far this year.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

When was the last time a team went with only 3 playoff starters? There will be a 4th playoff starter. The whole 3 days rest stuff is a thing of the past.

Burnes’ wife had their baby in between his starts. You don’t think that dude would pitch in games 1,4, and 7?

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

A pitcher's ability to sustain their craft all season long is part of their quality.    Luhnow's three and Elias' one acquisition demonstrated that ability prior to the old Astros and today's Orioles making big investments in them.     Skubal and Crochet never have.

I agree at midseason 2024 they have been top pitchers so far this year.

That assessment probably holds some validity with Skubal. But I think that does not apply to Crochet whatsoever. He  is 25 and this is his first year starting.

Would you make that same assessment about Grayson Rodriguez who will be 25 in November? Or would it be too early to say about him?

Scherzer and Verlander have shown that in the past but you surely wouldn't want to bet on their old, broken down bodies being able to do it now or in the future would you?

By this designation/demonstration, the Orioles should resign Burnes?

[emmett16]

I like all three.  But for me it's a fairly easy decision.  2 of the 3 play a premium position.  Mayo would be the odd man out for me.  And I'm a huge Mayo fan.  I don't know who the hypothetical player coming back would be, but he'd need to be pretty darn special. 

[interloper]

5 hours ago, Just Regular said:

A pitcher's ability to sustain their craft all season long is part of their quality.    Luhnow's three and Elias' one acquisition demonstrated that ability prior to the old Astros and today's Orioles making big investments in them.     Skubal and Crochet never have.

I agree at midseason 2024 they have been top pitchers so far this year.

Yeah. I almost guarantee that whomever Elias acquires it will be a guy with a track record of durability (see also: Lyles, Gibson, Burnes, Kimbrel, Irvin). That seems to really be an important factor in the guys he acquires for the ML roster.

If you want to argue against this, you can point to Flaherty who, prior to us acquiring him had 3 straight years of very low innings due to injury. But I think we all know that Elias had some trouble with the deadline and ended up taking what he could get. Or, he was against giving up better prospects at that deadline specifically. 

So it will be interesting to see who he acquires and what kind of pitcher they are. But I am pretty confident that if he gives up quality prospects, the pitcher he is getting in return will have better-than-average durability. I don't think he'll go for the upside/risk associated with Crochet, etc. 

Edited July 9 by interloper

[interloper]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

That assessment probably holds some validity with Skubal. But I think that does not apply to Crochet whatsoever. He  is 25 and this is his first year starting.

Would you make that same assessment about Grayson Rodriguez who will be 25 in November? Or would it be too early to say about him?

Scherzer and Verlander have shown that in the past but you surely wouldn't want to bet on their old, broken down bodies being able to do it now or in the future would you?

By this designation/demonstration, the Orioles should resign Burnes?

Grayson threw 122 innings last year, so he really won't have a ton of limits this year. I could see them limiting him if the division is well in-hand in September. 

Crochet is coming off 12 innings, and TJS before that. 

Not sure how these two are remotely similar cases. 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Grayson threw 122 innings last year, so he really won't have a ton of limits this year. I could see them limiting him if the division is well in-hand in September. 

Crochet is coming off 12 innings, and TJS before that. 

Not sure how these two are remotely similar cases. 

This was the post that I responded to.

 

 

6 hours ago, Just Regular said:

A pitcher's ability to sustain their craft all season long is part of their quality.    Luhnow's three and Elias' one acquisition demonstrated that ability prior to the old Astros and today's Orioles making big investments in them.     Skubal and Crochet never have.

I agree at midseason 2024 they have been top pitchers so far this year.

@Just Regular was talking about a pitcher's ability to "sustain their craft all season".

My point was Crochet is 25 and this is his first year as a starting pitcher, so it's probably a little unfair to talk about what he has never done. I was asking the question would he apply that same sort of assessment upon Grayson Rodriguez?

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

This was the post that I responded to.

 

 

@Just Regular was talking about a pitcher's ability to "sustain their craft all season".

My point was Crochet is 25 and this is his first year as a starting pitcher, so it's probably a little unfair to talk about what he has never done. I was asking the question would he apply that same sort of assessment upon Grayson Rodriguez?

I’m not sure I’m following you.  @Just Regular’s point was that the pitchers acquired by the Astros and Orioles have demonstrated their ability to pitch well late in the season.  It’s not that Crochet and Skubal definitely can’t do it - it’s that they haven’t proven they can, so that’s a risk that the Astros and O’s haven’t taken to date.   

I’m not sure what Grayson has to do with this, but he did have a spectacular second half last year and threw 163.1 innings between the majors and the minors.   So, I think he did show he could sustain his stuff late into the season.  He certainly screwed the pooch vs. Texas, however.   

 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

This was the post that I responded to.

@Just Regular was talking about a pitcher's ability to "sustain their craft all season".

My point was Crochet is 25 and this is his first year as a starting pitcher, so it's probably a little unfair to talk about what he has never done. I was asking the question would he apply that same sort of assessment upon Grayson Rodriguez?

I would not.     Minors/majors/playoffs, Grayson was near 3000 game pitches last year - he is about as well platformed as any individual pitcher for 2024, and has already had a 2-week cooldown from inflammation.

Crochet is his equal in the sense of a ballplayer born in 1999 that the gods put top-tier lightning bolts in their arms, but their baseball lives this decade have had a lot of contrast.   No 2-week vacation and before 2024 he had never surpassed 70 innings in a season, even in his full 2018-2019 college years at Tennessee with Garrett Stallings.

Crochet relieved more than he started even in college.    Grayson has been training as a starting pitcher his entire professional life - even Mike Elias' player development people never made him follow someone.

[Orioles5258]

18 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

There is no fair market value for aces.  Pitching aces are an extremely limited commodities and teams will do what they can to obtain them.  Having an ace pitcher in the postseason is a big advantage.  If the O's had 2, that would be a huge advantage.  Very high demand and limited supply means price will skyrocket.  I would probably do Basallo for Crochet and Holliday for Skubal.  Fans of those teams would probably say those offers are jokes.  Whether in contract price or prospect value, the price is always more than you would rationally think.

It's been reported as of yesterday that the Yankees want Crochet badly but are unwilling to trade Jones whose the number 74 pipeline prospect to get Crochet. I'm sure the White Sox GM would love to work with you on a trade instead of having to deal with a GM that values controllable elite prospects.   

Edited July 9 by Orioles5258