Excellent Meoli article on Zach Fruit's deveopment

[Go_Os]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

It's been 5 drafts, coming up on their 6th, and they not only have never drafted and developed a pitcher yet, they don't have one in the top ten of their prospects. 

I know it's not popular to question the Orioles on here, but the results matter, not words. Holt, Elias and his scouts can start spiking footballs and celebrating when their system of identifying and developing pitchers bears fruits at the major league level.

Call me unimpressed at this point and a fluff piece on a 24-year old guy, with a 3.90 ERA in High-A ball, who right-handers slash .285/.356/.486/.842 against, is not going to change my mind. 

Forrett now is a guy with some impressive pitches, youth, and ability that could be something to get "excited" over.

The facts are this, the Orioles have shown zero ability to identify and/or develop impact pitching talent in 5-years of drafting. I mean, not even a reliever of use. Nothing, nada. Their best pitching prospects at the upper levels are guys they traded for.

Whatever system they are using needs to be scrapped or at the very least, re-evaluated. 

 

 

It would help if they started drafting pitchers in the higher rounds.  If you draft a lot of turds, you can only polish a few to be significant contributors to the major league roster.  I hope we take several pitchers early.  Our offense seems set for the next 5 years, so let's balance things out.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

A bit of a counter is having 3 #1 (a/b/c) in the org.  Povich (at least) would be top 10 in most orgs.

What does that have to do with my point about pitching? Povich was not drafted by the Orioles. If you want to counter my points, maybe actually counter my points.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

To be fair, last year was the first time they really drafted many pitchers in the first 10 rounds.

2019 - none until 8th round 

2020 -only Baumler, who got hurt

2021 - only Tavera before 11th tound

2022 - couldn’t sign McLean, highest signee was Bright (5th round).  Did also take pitchers in rounds 7, 8, 10.

2023 - much heavier on pitching

Now, you could say that (1) deferring on picking pitchers was a bad strategy, or (2) they claim they can get pitchers with the traits they like in the later rounds, but where’s the proof?  Those are defensible points, but given the overall success of the team (including above average pitching the last two years), I’m certainly not ready to say the strategy was wrong.  As to proof they can succeed with guys picked in lower rounds, I agree it’s not there yet.  But I’ve seen some outside observers (Longenhagen, Sarris) who seem to think they’re headed in a good direction.  So, I’ll be patient.   It stands to reason that guys picked in later rounds may take longer to develop than early round picks.  

No, I refuse to take that argument. That argument no longer holds weight with me. 

My point is 100% backed up by FACTS. Something that you or whatever national guy touting 24-year olds in High-A ball that you want to listen to don't have. 

The Orioles felt they knew better. They felt they had some magic formula that Holt talked about. But guess what? Nada. That's how many of these pitchers that they knew what to look for from have made it to the majors or even look like impact guys.

The Orioles went hitter heavy and thought they were smarter than everyone else and that they could find guys 7th round and later with "what they look for" in pitch shapes and spin rates. 

Has that developed, oh I don't know, one single major league pitcher? Even a reliever? How bad are you at finding and developing pitching that you can't even find a reliever in five years?

So you'll have to excuse me if I'm not going to drool over what Holt says and give them a pass for not drafting and developing any pitching. 

Now I think Elias has done a great job in rebuilding this franchise from the ground up including some great early draft picks selections, but there is not one single reason to give the Orioles the benefit of the doubt that they know how to scout and/or develop major league pitching from players they acquire through the draft. 

Could that change with guys like Forret, or reliever candidates like Bright or Brandon Young? Maybe. I just don't take anything out of these fluff pieces because the results are not there.

[Frobby]

Your points are fine, but why so snippy?  I don’t remember pissing in your corn flakes….

[Tony-OH]

30 minutes ago, Go_Os said:

It would help if they started drafting pitchers in the higher rounds.  If you draft a lot of turds, you can only polish a few to be significant contributors to the major league roster.  I hope we take several pitchers early.  Our offense seems set for the next 5 years, so let's balance things out.

But that was part of their plan. They felt they could "game the system" by finding guys that fit "what they were looking for" and didn't have to "waste" early picks on them.

Meanwhile they were wasting picks on players like Donta Williams (4th round) with literally no upside. I could have picked who whole bunch of other guys, but he's just the first one that popped into my head.

Meanwhile, look at these teams that we're playing and we're seeing starting pitchers that were 5th or 7th round picks and impact relievers taken throughout these last five drafts.

People need to stop making excuses for Elias/Sigbot/Holt on drafting and developing pitching. Go look at the Pirates top ten and look at that pitching.

Elias is great at a lot of things. Drafting and developing pitching is not one of them. 

Maybe we'll see more Forret-types taken in this draft? Maybe we'll actually see some high end high school arms taken early? All I know is there's not a lot of impact pitching in this system and the reason why the pitching has filtered it's way up is because the good hitting prospects have lost their eligibility and the ones of late have not been doing very good this year.

 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Your points are fine, but why so snippy?  I don’t remember pissing in your corn flakes….

I'm just a little annoyed that people are so easily influenced by a puff piece. 

I'm also annoyed that the Orioles keep crapping up against the Cubs, so that doesn't help.  

[733baseball]

Well, he had a great outing tonight. 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 unearned run in 4.2 scoreless.

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm just a little annoyed that people are so easily influenced by a puff piece. 

I'm also annoyed that the Orioles keep crapping up against the Cubs, so that doesn't help.  

I appreciate that you pointed out that it was a fluff piece. I think most of us aren’t experts on the minors so we probably are more easily swayed by seeing any good info about us.

Fruit is a nice story as a 9th rd pick, but we did have Tyler Wilson recently as a 10th rd pick. We developed him during the “dark ages”. 

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

But that was part of their plan. They felt they could "game the system" by finding guys that fit "what they were looking for" and didn't have to "waste" early picks on them.

Meanwhile they were wasting picks on players like Donta Williams (4th round) with literally no upside. I could have picked who whole bunch of other guys, but he's just the first one that popped into my head.

Meanwhile, look at these teams that we're playing and we're seeing starting pitchers that were 5th or 7th round picks and impact relievers taken throughout these last five drafts.

People need to stop making excuses for Elias/Sigbot/Holt on drafting and developing pitching. Go look at the Pirates top ten and look at that pitching.

Elias is great at a lot of things. Drafting and developing pitching is not one of them. 

Maybe we'll see more Forret-types taken in this draft? Maybe we'll actually see some high end high school arms taken early? All I know is there's not a lot of impact pitching in this system and the reason why the pitching has filtered it's way up is because the good hitting prospects have lost their eligibility and the ones of late have not been doing very good this year.

 

You are very right to question some of the 2nd rd - 5th rd choices we’ve made. As you point out, guys with little upside. A pipeline of some version of arms would’ve been better by the upside of what Williams, Trimble, Josenberger, etc… have offered. Niche role types versus pitching. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I appreciate that you pointed out that it was a fluff piece. I think most of us aren’t experts on the minors so we probably are more easily swayed by seeing any good info about us.

Fruit is a nice story as a 9th rd pick, but we did have Tyler Wilson recently as a 10th rd pick. We developed him during the “dark ages”. 

Thanks. BTW, I'm not really picking on Fruit who does have some pitches to work from and considering his awful college stats is a nice development just to get to this point. 

I'm certainly not rooting against nor do I no one develops, it just the who "Orioles are masters at drafting and development" really holds no weight when it comes to pitching so far.

Are they learning from past mistakes and finding better pitchers? Are they now going invest early draft capital more often, maybe even their first pick since it's late 1t round on pitching? Could they decided to take on more risk/reward High School arms early in teh draft? Perhaps.

I know that Elias and Sig are smart guys. I think Holt is a good development guys given the right guys (Bradish, Kremer and even Grayson come to mind), but this organization is in need of pitching on a really good major league team and there's not a lot to bring up because they have not been good and drafting and/or developing their minor league pitching.  

I'm hopeful like with anyone else, they've learned from their mistakes and will take a more balanced approached in the draft because as I've also shown, they've haven't exactly hit too often after the 1st round with college hitters since 2020 (Can't really judge Norby). 

[Rbiggs2525]

It did need to be pointed out though. 24 year old at high A is no great feat. Basallo is at double A 5 years younger. Sometimes you have to swallow your pride and look around for help. I would continue to try to poach coaches and scouts from great organization at developing pitching. The Pirates already had Skenes and Jones come up. They have 2 kids in Harrington and Chandler coming soon. They have invested in pitching and now are set for the future barring injury.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

It did need to be pointed out though. 24 year old at high A is no great feat. Basallo is at double A 5 years younger. Sometimes you have to swallow your pride and look around for help. I would continue to try to poach coaches and scouts from great organization at developing pitching. The Pirates already had Skenes and Jones come up. They have 2 kids in Harrington and Chandler coming soon. They have invested in pitching and now are set for the future barring injury.

I don’t hold it against Fruit that he’s 24.   He was drafted last year and it’s his first full year in pro ball.  It’s not like he was drafted from high school and has been in the minors six years.  I’d say he’s doing fine for a 9th round pick.  I wouldn’t expect him to be in AA yet, though he might get there in the next few weeks if he pitches well.  

As to the Pirates’ pitching development, I think any of the 30 teams could have gotten Skenes to where he is.  He was touted as the best college pitching prospect in a decade and he’s proven that assessment correct.  That’s not rocket science by the Pirates IMO.  Jones was a nice pick and they’ve done well with him.  Still, the O’s team ERA is 0.25 runs/game better than the Pirates, so I’m not going to slobber all over their pitching development.  
 

[Tony-OH]

45 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

It did need to be pointed out though. 24 year old at high A is no great feat. Basallo is at double A 5 years younger. Sometimes you have to swallow your pride and look around for help. I would continue to try to poach coaches and scouts from great organization at developing pitching. The Pirates already had Skenes and Jones come up. They have 2 kids in Harrington and Chandler coming soon. They have invested in pitching and now are set for the future barring injury.

Since Elias has not spent much early draft capita on pitching until last year, I do want to hold off on being too upset at the development side. I would not be upset if the Orioles did go in a different direction with their pitching development folks, but I also think this comes down to how they scout pitching too. 

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t hold it against Fruit that he’s 24.   He was drafted last year and it’s his first full year in pro ball.  It’s not like he was drafted from high school and has been in the minors six years.  I’d say he’s doing fine for a 9th round pick.  I wouldn’t expect him to be in AA yet, though he might get there in the next few weeks if he pitches well.  

As to the Pirates’ pitching development, I think any of the 30 teams could have gotten Skenes to where he is.  He was touted as the best college pitching prospect in a decade and he’s proven that assessment correct.  That’s not rocket science by the Pirates IMO.  Jones was a nice pick and they’ve done well with him.  Still, the O’s team ERA is 0.25 runs/game better than the Pirates, so I’m not going to slobber all over their pitching development.  
 

Not trying to pick on you, but what does the major league team's ERAs have to do with pitching development? How many Orioles pitchers were drafted and developed by the Orioles on their current staff? Zero.

No one is holding anything against Fruit, just pointing out facts. Just like the fact that despite all his development, he's having a hard time getting High-A right-handed hitters out consistently.

Now, maybe he'll continue to develop and maybe he'll end up guy, as Orioles fans, we sure hope so, but I think if you are going to tout a guy to show off your development system, maybe not pointing out a 24-year old in High-A ball who's stats or stuff really don't scream out, "Wow!"

I've watched Fruit pitch a few times and came away not very impressed. Now guys do improve and I'd never call anyone who can touch high-90s a non prospect when they're 24-years old, but I think there's still a long road ahead. 

Again, I'm not rooting against the guy at all. 

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

until last year

I feel like this is the operative point. The O’s didn’t just put more into picking pitchers last year, they went pretty heavy with it. I feel like they understand what Tony is saying and have already started to adjust. I hope so. We have all been lamenting the fact that the Orioles have not spent high draft capital on pitching. I honestly wish they did so instead of drafting Bradfield last year. I also hope their top two pics this year are pitchers.

From a roster management perspective, I think it will be easier to find solid players to round out our positional group then it will be to find good pitchers for our staff. I think we need to draft those.