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Deadline Predictions

Greg Pappas

By Greg Pappas
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G54377 Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

G54377

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Posted

We don't need to trach for a LHP just for the sake of getting a lefty. We need to make the best deal we can for the best pitcher we can. I don't think Snell is getting traded. Crochet seems like a risk Elias wouldn't send an elite prospect for. Kikuchi is a JAG. Skubal... we'll see. That's the only big name that makes sense. 

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interloper
interloper

My current prediction for reliever is the Angels' Carlos Estevez. Estevez would fit great in this bullpen and probably wouldn't cost a ton.  My current prediction for SP is actually Skubal, as un

ChicagoTerp
ChicagoTerp

SP: Eflin or Flaherty. RP: No idea, but it won't be Miller. Who we give up: No Holliday, Mayo or Basallo. But Norby and Stowers and others will be dealt.

oriolefan1035
oriolefan1035

Tyler Anderson + Carlos Estevez with Connor Norby the top prospect going in return.

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e16bball Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

e16bball

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Thanks for pointing that out. I hadn’t realized that. 

For the record I don’t want either as an impact guy.  I wouldn’t be upset if we picked up an innings eater type to absorb some load.  

Agreed. On that front, I think I actually might prefer Kikuchi, because his upside is probably higher. He’s got good enough stuff that you could imagine him getting hot and ripping off a month of great starts at the right time — particularly once the weather gets a little cool again.

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

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20 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

My prediction is Fedde and Brebbia or Kopech. I think it will be a rental or 1.5 yr SP and a RHP middle reliever type and that would be all in one deal.

I really like Fedde. I think we should in theory get a LH SP because we have the WALL, but Fedde might be the best fit.

We don’t know if Snell is available. Skubal and Crochet are awfully expensive with limited history of high IP.

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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15 hours ago, G54377 said:

We don't need to trach for a LHP just for the sake of getting a lefty. We need to make the best deal we can for the best pitcher we can. I don't think Snell is getting traded. Crochet seems like a risk Elias wouldn't send an elite prospect for. Kikuchi is a JAG. Skubal... we'll see. That's the only big name that makes sense. 

Tyler Anderson has one more year of control. The Angels are bad….

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dystopia Hangout Grand Counsel

dystopia

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16 hours ago, G54377 said:

We don't need to trach for a LHP just for the sake of getting a lefty. We need to make the best deal we can for the best pitcher we can. I don't think Snell is getting traded. Crochet seems like a risk Elias wouldn't send an elite prospect for. Kikuchi is a JAG. Skubal... we'll see. That's the only big name that makes sense. 

What is a JAG?

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eddie83 Hangout Grand Counsel

eddie83

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22 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

My prediction is Fedde and Brebbia or Kopech. I think it will be a rental or 1.5 yr SP and a RHP middle reliever type and that would be all in one deal.

That’s my call as well. Can see another RP from elsewhere as well. 

50/50 they get RH CF like a Pillar. 

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UMDTerrapins Hangout Veteran Council

UMDTerrapins

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I think we make several deals that aren’t as sexy as we’re hoping for. My prediction is Norby/Stowers/Chace for JP Sears. He’s a lefty, experienced, an innings eater, under club control through 2028, won’t cost us any top prospects, and we’ve made multiple deals with Oakland under Elias. Not what I’m advocating, just what I’m predicting (or something similar). I wouldn’t dream of trying to predict what kind of reliever Elias would trade for……I mean look at who he’s acquired for the bullpen in the past. 

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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1 hour ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I think we make several deals that aren’t as sexy as we’re hoping for. My prediction is Norby/Stowers/Chace for JP Sears. He’s a lefty, experienced, an innings eater, under club control through 2028, won’t cost us any top prospects, and we’ve made multiple deals with Oakland under Elias. Not what I’m advocating, just what I’m predicting (or something similar). I wouldn’t dream of trying to predict what kind of reliever Elias would trade for……I mean look at who he’s acquired for the bullpen in the past. 

Sears would be a better Cole Irvin in a Gibson better than Lyles kind of way.     Maybe Irvin could be part of the return as I don't believe SIGBOT would want 3 pitchers like Sears, Povich, Irvin in one rotation.

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eddie83 Hangout Grand Counsel

eddie83

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19 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Maybe 100/0 if Cowser instead of Kjerstad is a very big piece that goes.

True. One can impact the other. 
 

I don’t see us moving any “big piece” myself. I see the next tier being dealt. 

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Bemorewins Hangout Grand Counsel

Bemorewins

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I think we make several deals that aren’t as sexy as we’re hoping for. My prediction is Norby/Stowers/Chace for JP Sears. He’s a lefty, experienced, an innings eater, under club control through 2028, won’t cost us any top prospects, and we’ve made multiple deals with Oakland under Elias. Not what I’m advocating, just what I’m predicting (or something similar). I wouldn’t dream of trying to predict what kind of reliever Elias would trade for……I mean look at who he’s acquired for the bullpen in the past. 

I'm not saying that you are wrong. But didn't we just try the lefty "innings eater" from the A's in Cole Irvin? That hasn't exactly worked out wonderfully for us. Not sure why it makes sense to repeat the same type of move two years later with a team who is much better?

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I think we make several deals that aren’t as sexy as we’re hoping for. My prediction is Norby/Stowers/Chace for JP Sears. He’s a lefty, experienced, an innings eater, under club control through 2028, won’t cost us any top prospects, and we’ve made multiple deals with Oakland under Elias. Not what I’m advocating, just what I’m predicting (or something similar). I wouldn’t dream of trying to predict what kind of reliever Elias would trade for……I mean look at who he’s acquired for the bullpen in the past. 

I don't see why we would trade for an innings eater. If we make a move it should be to upgrade our rotation for the playoffs, i.e. a #3 or better starter. I agree that Norby and Stowers make the most sense to trade but I would hope for more of a return than a guy like Sears. 

I wouldn't necessarily use the past as a guide for what we will do at the deadline now. We signed Burnes and Kimbrel. This year is different, at least to an extent. 

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clapdiddy Hangout Grand Counsel

clapdiddy

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Posted
1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think we get a solid BP arm and a middling starter (Fedde or less).

This would be the "Elias Approach".   I'm fine with that and I think Fedde, for this season, would be a fine #3 for the playoffs.

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  • Posts

    • Frobby
      This is the kind of thing that drives me crazy

      By Frobby · Posted

      Another thing I should say is that my chart doesn't speak to pitch efficiency or how may pitches teams allow their pitchers to throw.   That data isn't easily collected.   But it could be that O's pitchers don't throw a ton of innings because they walk a lot of guys and reach their pitch count limits sooner than a typical team's pitchers do.
    • Frobby
      This is the kind of thing that drives me crazy

      By Frobby · Posted

      On the specific question of whether the O's push their starting pitching prospects' workloads far enough, I had a look at all MiL pitchers in the AL who had thrown at least 90 innings, by team, and broke them into groups of 90-99, 100-109, 110-119, and 120+ innings.   This chart summarizes my findings: Team 120+ 110-119 100-109 90-99 Total 90+ Total 110+ BAL 0 1 4 9 14 1 NYY 4 4 2 6 16 8 BOS 0 3 1 5 9 3 TBR 5 4 4 1 14 9 TOR 1 0 5 2 8 1 CLE 7 3 3 2 15 10 MIN 1 3 3 3 10 4 KCR 3 4 4 7 18 7 DET 0 2 4 7 13 2 CWS 2 3 5 4 14 5 HOU 1 4 6 6 17 5 SEA 4 6 3 4 17 10 TEX 1 1 4 8 14 2 OAK 2 1 2 5 10 3 LAA 4 1 4 4 13 5 AL Ave. 2.33 2.67 3.60 4.87 13.47 5.00 Now, there is some incomplete information here.   It won't pick up a pitcher who had 70 innings with one organization and 20 with another, for example.  It obviously can't tell you which organizations lost pitchers to injuries.  And, it doesn't account for the age and experience of pitchers, which can matter a lot with regard to how much workload a team is comfortable with for a pitcher.    All that said, you can see that the Orioles are at the very bottom of the number of pitchers who have thrown 110+ innings.   They only have one, Alex Pham, who is at 115.   The average team has 5, and two teams have as many as 10.  The O's also are one of only three AL teams that have no pitcher who has thrown 120 innings.  The average team has 2.33, and Cleveland has 7.    I might also add that there are a good number of pitchers on the list who have thrown 130+ innings or more.    On the other hand, the O's have a pretty normal number of pitchers (14) who have thrown at least 90 innings (average was 13.47 and the median was 14).  There are some teams like Boston and Toronto who have a lot fewer than that. All in all, I wouldn't say the Orioles are at the very top of the "baby the pitchers" list, but they are certainly leaning heavily in that direction, based on this data (with the caveats I gave above).
    • Sanfran327
      GM Mistakes Elias/Cashman

      By Sanfran327 · Posted

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      GM Mistakes Elias/Cashman

      By Ven6 · Posted

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      By 7Mo · Posted

      That seems to require that Dominguez would be the better contributor. 
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      I live in California and prices for games in SF and Oakland change day-to-day. That is just normal in 2024, any price is only the price at the moment.

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