Prospect rankings?

[Mackus]

1. Wieters

2. Rowell

3. Reimold

4. Liz

5. Erbe

6. Arrieta

7. Snyder

8. Bascom

9. Beato

10. Spoone

Would be my list.

[Big Mac]

1. Wieters

2. Rowell

3. Liz

4. Reimold

5. Spoone

6. Erbe

7. Arrieta

8. Bascom

9. Bergesen

10. Henson/Mahoney (virtual tie)

[Sports Guy]

Rowell has a higher ceiling, but Wieters will have the higher value because of his position coupled with his defense and offense. Plus the fact that he could be helping the Orioles in September 2008 doesnt hurt his standing.

That's what i think and for that reason, i think Rowell should be ahead of Wieters.

I mean, these prospect lists are usually, higher ceiling type guys.

However, because of closeness to the majors, i don't disagree too much with Wieters being ahead of him.

[Ely]

Tony why isnt liz top two after the season hes put up and his huge potential i was under the impresrion that his stuff was cabrera-like or is that the problem?

[orioole28]

1)Weiters

2)Liz

3)Rowell

4)Reimold

5)Spoone

6)Synder

7)Erbe

8)Hernandez

9)Arrieta

10)Beato

That's my Top 10

11)Tripp

12)Henson

13)Bergesen

14)Bascom

15)Mahoney

My next 5 picks

[hallmt18]

Rowell has a higher ceiling, but Wieters will have the higher value because of his position coupled with his defense and offense. Plus the fact that he could be helping the Orioles in September 2008 doesnt hurt his standing.

When you say higher ceiling, it seems like maybe you mean higher offensive ceiling. Like you said, Wieters has higher value because of his position and defense. So, to me, Wieters' ceiling is at least as high as Reimold's because he could fill arguably the most important defensive position (other than the pitcher, i suppose) for the next 10+ years.

[Tony-OH]

Tony why isnt liz top two after the season hes put up and his huge potential i was under the impresrion that his stuff was cabrera-like or is that the problem?

Liz has had an outstanding year, and he'll most likely occupy the number three spot on the list. However, he still has some command and endurance issues to overcome before I can put him ahead of two potential impact bats/position players.

If Rowell keeps striking out at his current rate, he could slip back but I doubt it. I believe in all three, so the order may be irrelevant.

[Skywalker76]

1)Weiters

2)Rowell

3)Liz

4)Reimold

5)Erbe

6)Synder

7)Spoone

8)Tripp

9)Bascom

10)Arrieta

I wonder after the signing of Wieters and Arrieta how BA will rank the O's farm system in 2008. I think we could make 10-12 for the first time in years.

[davearm]

Olson will not be eligible anymore, but Hoey and Penn could possibly go either way.

So why is Garrett Olson out?

He's only thrown 18 IP. You need 50.

[srh523]

Liz has had an outstanding year, and he'll most likely occupy the number three spot on the list. However, he still has some command and endurance issues to overcome before I can put him ahead of two potential impact bats/position players.

If Rowell keeps striking out at his current rate, he could slip back but I doubt it. I believe in all three, so the order may be irrelevant.

Rowell has also been very sub-par against lefties this year. Hopefully he can improve on those 2 areas next year.

Tony,

Do you see Rowell moving to Fred. next season or starting in Delmarva again?

[davearm]

Liz has had an outstanding year, and he'll most likely occupy the number three spot on the list. However, he still has some command and endurance issues to overcome before I can put him ahead of two potential impact bats/position players.

If Rowell keeps striking out at his current rate, he could slip back but I doubt it. I believe in all three, so the order may be irrelevant.

I pointed this out the last time one of these threads rolled through.

Seems to me that there's good reason to slot a guy or two with lower ceilings, like Liz and Olson, ahead of a guy with a higher ceiling like Rowell, simply due to their far higher probability of reaching the bigleages, and contributing.

As we sit here today, what are Rowell's odds of getting, say, 200+ ABs in the majors, ever? And before anyone jumps on me, I'd ask the same question of Josh Vitters. The list of first-round HS kids that just don't ever make it is long enough to circle the globe.

On the other hand, at this point I'd feel pretty confident about predicting that Liz and Olson will have at least decent MLB careers, since they're excelling in the high minors.

Interested to hear how you balance these ceiling vs. probability considerations when you make your lists Tony.

[Crazysilver03]

So why is Garrett Olson out?

He's only thrown 18 IP. You need 50.

Heh. For some reason I had felt like he had thrown more innings.

There is a chance that Olson would go back on the prospect list. The only way for Olson to make that is by pitching 50 innings. He wasnt on the 25 man roster for 45 days during the 25 man roster restriction period.

So technically, Hoey, Olson, and Penn could all remain on the list. All will be fringe on/off the prospect list.

[davearm]

Heh. For some reason I had felt like he had thrown more innings.

There is a chance that Olson would go back on the prospect list. The only way for Olson to make that is by pitching 50 innings. He wasnt on the 25 man roster for 45 days during the 25 man roster restriction period.

So technically, Hoey, Olson, and Penn could all remain on the list. All will be fringe on/off the prospect list.

Penn's already surpassed 50 IP.

[Elbren]

1. Wieters

2. Rowell

3. Liz

4. Reimold

5. Erbe

6. Hoey

7. Snyder

8. Beato

9. Spoone

10. Arrieta

11. Henson

12. Bascom

13. Hernandez

14. Tripp

15. Bergesen

Is Wieters a better prospect than Rowell???

Is that more because he is closer to the majors??

I'd say that's part of the reason.

- starting at a higher level

- higher probability of having an impact on the ML team in a year or two

- probably equal power potential

- switch hitter

- power at a premium position that most teams have a problem developing

At least that's what I think.

[blazer]

1. Weiters

2. Rowell

3. Liz

4. Reimold

5. Erbe

6. Snyder

7. Beato

8. Hoey

9. Arrieta

10. Spoone

11. Henson

12. Bergesen

13. Tripp

14. Hernandez

15. Bascom

IMO, Olson will reach the innings limit if he stays in the rotation the rest of the season. Hoey won't reach the innings or service limit, thus will still be eligible.