What to make of Matt Hobgood's season?

[QBsILLEST1]

I was curious as to what you guys thought of Hobgood's season. I wanted to start this thread because I still feel people are disappointed with Hobgood's rookie debut which didnt help the morale of the people who thought we overdrafted him. What you have to keep in mind, aside from the fact that he surely had the jitters, evidenced by his first few games in which he threw a few WP's hit a few batters and walked too many as well. But, remember the O's kept him on a very strict pitch limit and I do not think he was ever allowed to make it out of the 5th inning. Shoot, even 2ER allowed in 5Ip is nearly a 4 ERA. And considering that one of Hobby's calling cards is his ability to pitch better and get stronger as he goes deeper into the game, uits very possible that he may have been able to have gone 6 or 7 IP and the ERA would look much better. So this is why I believe his ERA was where it was.

Now, at this stage as a 18 year old kid, their development can happen so rapidly, its almost like being in baseball puberty. Things can change so much with his developement between now and next season, and there are some minor tweaks with him that could take place to help him have better command as well as possibly gain some mroe velo or help him get more tighter spin on the curve to make ti an even better pitch.

He so far has good groundball tendencies, and from every ndicatiopn I can come up with, uses mostly if not only a 2 seamer in which ranges between 92-95 which has excellent sinking action. This is already a plus pitch, I could see him gaining a few more MPH, but its not something I necessarily expect. By getting into better shape and toning down some, he could gain a few more MPH on his fastball, but also Im reading that his mechanics on the front side may leak a slight bit of energy. He apparently opens up to early sometimes which is the problem. In doing that you lose energy and power, not to mention it makes it much harder to command your pitches. By staying closed longer, it enables you to explode when you rotate your hips thus opening up more power, more power, more velo and on the curve ball, more power can equal more spin thus giving it even better break. Thats how I see him improving.

Now, Like I said, the fastball is a good offering, already plus and he will keep most batted balls on the ground as it seems. The curve also a plus pitch could get better. In the future, it may become plus-plus as he tightens up on his delivery some. It was already labeled as the best curve in the draft, so imagine what it could be a few years down the road as its tweaked here and there. Alright, so now this is why he was labeled as a 1st rounder, because he already got 2 plus pitches and 2 other average(ish) pitches which in the future, with work and development could become above average or better.

Why did we choose Hobgood over the other guys? Well, because most of them were pretty closely rated. Some had slightly better stuff than others, but it seemed that the one guy who had the better stuff may have had the worst intangibles, giving the O's the thought that it would effect his ability to really break into his upside. Ill take the guy with 2 plus pitches and off the charts intangibles. His intangibles will enable him to make the most out of his potential, he works hard and is very competitive on the mound, something the O's have come to value. As he improves his slider and change up, we are looking at a guy who could head a play off potential rotation.

So in order for him to be a #2 or better starter, what Im looking of rlike I said will start with tweaking his delivery and keeping his shoulder closed. Im sure the O's will put him on a pretty strict conditioning program as well to get him into better shape. As he does this while at the same time, getting a better feel for the change up and slider, you may wind up with a kid who has 4 pitches that are atleast above average with GB tednencies and a good K rate. He COULD develop into a GB inducing Matusz with a better fastball and possibly lesser command.

And I know its not a perfect comp, but at this point, I dont know if hes gonna develop into a more power guy, or if his velo will hold where its at, and he turns into something like Trevor Cahill with a slightly harder fastball.

Something to keep in mind though, I dont remember who said it, but comparing him to Matusz, Hobgood has the higher ceiling. Matusz was drafted in the 4th round as a HSer, Hobgood a top 5 1st rounder, at the same point in their development, Hobgood is better. If Hobgood develops quickly, its not hard to see how good he could become.

The one thing that may be concering is his low K rate, but its not something to worry too much about, not in the small smaple size, in his first pro season. He coulda been working on his other secondary pitches and we wouldnt know, but as a GB pitcher, the lower K rates is not as concerning, and they will improve....

By next year, Hobgood may end up being the top pitching prospect in our system, he hobnestly could be now, we just dont know it yet.....

What do you guys think about Hobgood and his ceiling and his season?

[bobmc]

I'd like to hear the uncle's report on what Matt said to him and what he may have observed. Maybe he can shed some light on pitch count, etc. Also, it would be nice if we could get a report from the coaching staff at Bluefield or from JJ. Does the OH have any contacts?

Good summary QBILL! :clap3:

[Sports Guy]

Did enough to show his promise but did nothing, IMO, to justify him over Grant Green.

[hoosiers]

It's way to early to reach conclusions. He appears to have been selected high on merit and nothing has happened to diminish the expectations JJ had on draft day.

It's nice that Hobgood got his feet wet. I'm sure, all things equal, one would prefer better stats.

[tvz1997]

Did enough to show his promise but did nothing, IMO, to justify him over Grant Green.

Letting go

Letting go

The hardest part is knowing

That I'll miss you so

I'd like to wish you well

Oh but it hurts you know

Sometimes doing what is right

Means letting go -Joe Cocker

Repeat this three times and then pass it along into any JTrea thread of your choosing.

[QBsILLEST1]

Did enough to show his promise but did nothing, IMO, to justify him over Grant Green.

Why? What makes you say that? Grant Green had/has major questions about him that were never answered and wont be for a while. If we are gonna be having to develop a player as much as we are gonna have to develop Green, why not draft a HS kid who has some room for error and has a much higher ceiling. It seems as though people expect our HS pick to come out pitching like Matusz did this year, but thats not what drafting a HS player is about. It takes a while for the HS kid to develop and become what we want for them to become. Give him his time and he will show us why we drafted him...

It's way to early to reach conclusions. He appears to have been selected high on merit and nothing has happened to diminish the expectations JJ had on draft day.

It's nice that Hobgood got his feet wet. I'm sure, all things equal, one would prefer better stats.

Of course we would prefer better stats, but it is what it is. In a game he pitches 5 inning snand gives up 2 runs is a game he woulda probably went 7 innings, and giving up 2 runs in 7 innings makes a huge difference in your ERA. I honestly dont mind the ERA as much, I wish he woulda missed more bats, but it will come. I think he was working on his other secondary offerings, especially since his future rides on his ability to improve the other 2 pitches....

[ChaosLex]

What's his comp? Joba Chamberlain?

[Baseball2889]

i just wanna get in this by saying what ever reports of hobgood throwing in the low to mid 90s this season is a lie... i watched every game and his velo was always the same 86 to 91 and the 91 was always in the dirttt

[BringBackMagic]

Did enough to show his promise but did nothing, IMO, to justify him over Grant Green.

Glad to see you've gotten over it.

There is no need to surgically attach Hobgood to Green for the rest of his career as some posters here have done with Matusz and Smoak.

This summer, Hobgood didn't show anything that justified him being selected of Ryan Palsha. You can't base anything off of this summer's statistics.

Looking at numbers alone... Hobgood was medicre, walking too many batters, and getting hit pretty hard. At the same time, Grant Green hit alright, but struck out too much and only took one walk.

The draft is over. There is no reason to continue to harp on who should have been selected. We have our guys, lets move forward.

[QBsILLEST1]

What's his comp? Joba Chamberlain?

Nah I dont think so, unless your speaking of body size. Its kinda hard to say as far as a good comp because at this point, we dont know what pitches are going to develop and how good they will end up. But at this point, I think Cahill/Anderson is a decent comp. We will have a much better idea after next season. I remember Tony mentioning something about Roger Clemens mostly due to the intangibles and good fastball....

[ChaosLex]

There is no need to surgically attach Hobgood to Green for the rest of his career as some posters here have done with Matusz and Smoak.

Agreed. Now Rowell and Lincecum on the other hand...

[QBsILLEST1]

i just wanna get in this by saying what ever reports of hobgood throwing in the low to mid 90s this season is a lie... i watched every game and his velo was always the same 86 to 91 and the 91 was always in the dirttt

Its been reported even in the showcases that he throws that hard. I think even Joe Jordan mentioned something about him throwing that hard. It does occur a lot that a pitcher will tire as the season goes on, and considering he pitched through a whole HS season, then went through a good portion of the SS ball, it doesnt surprise me. Unless you were at the showcases, the HS games and had your own radar gun, then its not too valid. We will see how he does next year.....

[Lucky Jim]

i just wanna get in this by saying what ever reports of hobgood throwing in the low to mid 90s this season is a lie... i watched every game and his velo was always the same 86 to 91 and the 91 was always in the dirttt

Ok I am new to this site and I see that u said that frabizio didn't. Shine last night. He threw 70 inn this year and then he threw on 9 days rest up in the new York Penn league against one of the hottest teams in all the minors. The staton island Yankees have won 13 straight. I was at that game and he had some hits that should have been scored as errors. So don't write him off becuase of one bad outing all year

related?? not at all i just seen him pitch for the first time against burlington his second start and enjoyed watching him. i have talked to him and if u want any info on the kid let me know

Are you a scout? Was this your gun?

From your three posts, it appears you watched every Bluefield game AND made it to some NY-Penn games. Just curious.

[Lucky Jim]

But, remember the O's kept him on a very strict pitch limit and I do not think he was ever allowed to make it out of the 5th inning. Shoot, even 2ER allowed in 5Ip is nearly a 4 ERA. And considering that one of Hobby's calling cards is his ability to pitch better and get stronger as he goes deeper into the game, uits very possible that he may have been able to have gone 6 or 7 IP and the ERA would look much better. So this is why I believe his ERA was where it was.

You really are a silver lining kind of guy. I'm not upset with Hobgood's year, but there's little in there that tells me more exposure/innings during mediocre performances would've led to better numbers. You're assuming a whole lot here, it appears, in order to justify your favor towards Hobgood. I don't think you need to justify it, for one. But I'm not sure these kinds of assumptions help.

[QBsILLEST1]

You really are a silver lining kind of guy. I'm not upset with Hobgood's year, but there's little in there that tells me more exposure/innings during mediocre performances would've led to better numbers. You're assuming a whole lot here, it appears, in order to justify your favor towards Hobgood. I don't think you need to justify it, for one. But I'm not sure these kinds of assumptions help.

Well, like I said, and as its mentioned in reports on him, he gets stronger and pitches better as he gets deeper into the game. Its not hard to think that if he gave up 2 runs in the first and is cruising through the next 4 innings that if not under strict pitch limits he could stretch that out to 6 or 7 IP which would make his ERA atleast look slightly more favorable.

And assuming development is something that you do, Im projecting himn to improve his stuff. By keeping his front side closed, its going to benefit him in more than 1 way. Im sure the O's know this about him since it is able to be read in nearly any somewhat in depth report on him.