MacPhail cites Tex offer as proof the Orioles will spend money

[TonySoprano]

I don't know why it's hard for folks to grok this. Most of the uproar is based on people assuming that they know things that they don't. It's based on people making up stories about what "really" happened. We weren't there, we don't know. It comes down to whether (a) you believe AM was reasonable and sincere and truthful in what he's said about it, vs. (b) you believe he was putting on some phony facade to deceive Oriole fans or was a dope who knows nothing about negotiating with agents. Why anybody would believe the latter is beyond me, they've got nothing to base it on except the snakes in their head, but some people seem to believe it anyway.

Do you think a smart opening bid was for less money than what Texas offered?

[Dr. FLK]

If that's his evidence, then I'm not very encouraged. It's like me offering $300 for a 2 carat diamond ring, and telling me wife I'm willing to buy her anything she wants. I mean, I tried...right?

[Dr. FLK]

I don't know why it's hard for folks to grok this. Most of the uproar is based on people assuming that they know things that they don't. It's based on people making up stories about what "really" happened. We weren't there, we don't know. It comes down to whether (a) you believe AM was reasonable and sincere and truthful in what he's said about it, vs. (b) you believe he was putting on some phony facade to deceive Oriole fans or was a dope who knows nothing about negotiating with agents. Why anybody would believe the latter is beyond me, they've got nothing to base it on except the snakes in their head, but some people seem to believe it anyway.

What makes you believe the former? You really think that his low offer was a serious offer? He really thought that would land him here? Really? Wasn't it lower than offers that had previously been turned down? He may have meant that it was truthfully his best offer, but I don't think it shows that he was seriously trying to get him here.

[RShack]

Do you think a smart opening bid was for less money than what Texas offered?

Beats me. I fully admit that I'm not a FA negotiating expert. But here's one thing I'm sure about: it's not just the first number, it's the totality of the communication. So, if AM offered $20M for 7 years and also spent time with them explaining things and said that's our opening offer, not our final offer, we do have flexibility, then I fully believe that's a serious offer that warrants follow-up contact and negotiation to flesh out the flexibility. How much flexibility about years? Can you do 1 more year? How much flexibility about $M/year. Can you add $2.5M or $3M per year? These are very basic and very obvious things the agent would want to pursue... *if* BAL was really an option for Tex. The idea that it's just the first number that gets said, and nothing else about the interaction matters, well, I think that's just a goofy idea. I can't believe that anybody really believes that. Nobody in his right mind is gonna care about the first number, the number that's gonna matter is the final number... together with other factors that matter. In this case, I think it's pretty clear that the other factors mattered a whole lot, and that's true regardless of whether you're second guessing things from the standpoint of BAL or WAS or BOS.

I don't think AM is lying about it. Based on what he said, I think he did a good job of getting the Orioles foot in the door as far as it was welcome. Beyond that, I think he did a good job of not getting played like a fiddle, unlike the guys from BOS who clearly got stooged. I also can't believe we're still rehashing this thing. I guess it's because nothing's going on, so there's nothing else to talk about.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Them not asking for more money from us is pretty telling.

Actually, that says it all.

If the agent and client are looking for top dollar, you work the situation until you are sure that you've wrung out all that the market will bear.

The fact that Boras did not shop the NYY offer indicates pretty conclusively that they had the offer they wanted from the team they wanted to sign with.

People are (conveniently) forgotting how all this went down. Boras and Tex putzed around interminably with the Nats and Red Sox and Orioles, dragging it out. Is it possible that anyone has forgotten how excruciating this was -- how almost comical? Then at the moment that the Yankees stepped in with an offer, it was all over. Right away, Tex was grinning for the cameras, wearing a pinstripe jersey.

The Yankees' offer was never shopped. I have never seen a suggestion that the Yankees sat down with Boras, made the offer, and told him that it expired the minute he left the room. He could at least have made calls to the Sox, the Nats, even the O's. He didn't because his client didn't want to sign any of those places.

Why is this still a matter for debate? How much plainer could the reality be?

[wildcard]

MacPhail could have went all year without bringing up this can of worms as far as I am concerned. But a lot of you seem to love this junk.

[Guest rochester]

What was the Red Sawx last offer when they thought they had him - does anyone know?

[Sports Guy]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/12/nationals_repor.html

This is for those who say the Nats offered more...we don't really know and if they did, it was barely more.

Yes, it says Roch was told they would go 9 and possibly 10 years but we don't know how true that is.

[TonySoprano]

Beats me. I fully admit that I'm not a FA negotiating expert. But here's one thing I'm sure about: it's not just the first number, it's the totality of the communication. So, if AM offered $20M for 7 years and also spent time with them explaining things and said that's our opening offer, not our final offer, we do have flexibility, then I fully believe that's a serious offer that warrants follow-up contact and negotiation to flesh out the flexibility. How much flexibility about years? Can you do 1 more year? How much flexibility about $M/year. Can you add $2.5M or $3M per year? These are very basic and very obvious things the agent would want to pursue... IF Tex was truly serious about BAL being an option. The idea that it's just the first number that gets said, and nothing else about the interaction matters, well, I think that's just a goofy idea. I can't believe that anybody really believes that. Nobody in his right mind is gonna care about the first number, the number that's gonna matter is the final number... together with other factors that matter. In this case, I think it's pretty clear that the other factors mattered a whole lot, and that's true regardless of whether you're second guessing things from the standpoint of BAL or WAS or BOS.

I don't think AM is lying about it. Based on what he said, I think he did a good job of getting the Orioles foot in the door as far as it was welcome. Beyond that, I think he did a good job of not getting played like a fiddle, unlike the guys from BOS who clearly got stooged. I also can't believe we're still rehashing this thing. I guess it's because nothing's going on, so there's nothing else to talk about.

Please. Let's be objective. Common sense says $140M is a non-starter. Foot in the door? Not really.

I appreciate that it was an opening bid in the dance. However, we also said it was more than we wanted to pay. My bet is we weren't going to go much higher. Andy was being risk-adverse and again, I'm not getting into the mess of where he drew the bottom line. Hooray, he didn't get played like the Red Sox. woo hoo Andy 1, Epstein 0. One could argue that the Red Sox were in the game longer because of the aggressiveness of their pursuit. Their bid was taken seriously and given respect.

Heck, from the beginning, I knew we'd fall short to the Yankees, and got a ton of criticism for it. I didn't set myself up for a huge disappointment, and others that did, paid the price.

[Frobby]

Tony, show us where you are getting this stuff about the Texas offer. All I can find is that Texas offered 8 years, $140 mm. http://com3.runboard.com/boardsfgiantsfans.f16.t14459 Obviously, we topped that.

My other point is the press reports on what offers have "reportedly" been made are often wildly inaccurate. So I just don't know what other offers had actually been made, and what solid information the Orioles had about those offers, at the time the O's made their opening offer.

[RShack]

Please. Let's be objective. Common sense says $140M is a non-starter.

"Common sense" is what people say when they've got nothing else. What's "common sense" to you isn't necessarily "common sense" to other folks. If you wanna say a 7 year commitment at $20M is not grounds for negotiation, well, I think that's just silly. It's certainly not "objective". There's no arguing with your idea of what comprises "common sense".

This is why there's really no point in debating this. People start with their assumptions and then connect the dots to fit them. You have one bias about AM and make assumptions to support it. I have a different assumption about AM, and my assumptions fit that. So, let's not pretend we're talking about Tex negotiations, because we know zilch about that. What's really going on here is that the Tex story is just a proxy for everybody's biases about AM. We might as well admit it.

[TonySoprano]

Tony, show us where you are getting this stuff about the Texas offer. All I can find is that Texas offered 8 years, $140 mm. http://com3.runboard.com/boardsfgiantsfans.f16.t14459 Obviously, we topped that.

My other point is the press reports on what offers have "reportedly" been made are often wildly inaccurate. So I just don't know what other offers had actually been made, and what solid information the Orioles had about those offers, at the time the O's made their opening offer.

Frobby, hopefully you know by now, I have the stuff to back up my posts.

Agent Scott Boras describes Teixeira as "the ideal client," in part because his business sense is so clearly more refined than your average ballplayer's. Teixeira turned down $1.5 million from the Red Sox out of high school and wound up signing for $9.5 million with the Rangers out of college. He turned down $144 million from Texas two years ago and wound up with $180 million from the Yankees.

Source - Sports Illustrated, Nov 11, 2009

How did we "obviously top" $140 million when Texas has no state income tax?

"You have one bias about AM and make assumptions to support it. I have a different assumption about AM, and my assumptions fit that. So, let's not pretend we're talking about Tex negotiations, because we know zilch about that. What's really going on here is that the Tex story is just a proxy for everybody's biases about AM. We might as well admit it.

I have a bias, but you only have "assumptions." Sure thing, right-o

[Lucky Jim]

This is why there's really no point in debating this. People start with their assumptions and then connect the dots to fit them. You have one bias about AM and make assumptions to support it. I have a different assumption about AM, and my assumptions fit that. So, let's not pretend we're talking about Tex negotiations, because we know zilch about that. What's really going on here is that the Tex story is just a proxy for everybody's biases about AM. We might as well admit it.

This is really all that needs to be said at this point. And the thread should be left to die a quiet death.

[Arthur_Bryant]

This is why there's really no point in debating this. People start with their assumptions and then connect the dots to fit them. You have one bias about AM and make assumptions to support it. I have a different assumption about AM, and my assumptions fit that. So, let's not pretend we're talking about Tex negotiations, because we know zilch about that. What's really going on here is that the Tex story is just a proxy for everybody's biases about AM. We might as well admit it.

Great post but I do disagree with the bolded part.

We know that the Tex chase got underway with the opening of the free agent season in November, and dragged on until a couple of days before Christmas. What was offered or said between parties will never be publicly known, but we are certain that several solid, spectacular deals were put on the table, and that Boras and Tex didn't touch them. But on Dec. 23, the Yankees made an offer, and Tex accepted it almost immediately.

How immediately? Well, the Boston Globe article that was linked earlier in this thread is dated Dec. 23, contains this line: "Meanwhile, Yankees co-chairman Hal Steinbrenner told Newsday that the Yankees have no offers on the table to either Teixeira or Manny Ramirez." The Yankees' offer was made and accepted while that article was still on the Globe Web site.

Five-plus weeks, Yankees stay on the sideline, negotiations drag out.

Dec. 23, Yankees step in, make offer, offer is accepted.

Gee, do you suppose Tex and Boras were waiting for that offer?

[RShack]

I have a bias, but you only have "assumptions." Sure thing, right-o

Can't you read? I said everybody starts with what they beleive about AM and then make assumptions to fit it. There's no difference in this regard between you and me, except which opinion of AM we start out with. We each view the Tex situation through our biases about whether AM is a good man for the job, and we each have assumptions that fit that. Everybody does that. How you can take that as not fair is beyond me.