Bowden: O's have made significant offer to Konerko

[NATTYBO's]

Lee brings far less risk because the contract will be more favorable, the defense is better and the pick is kept.

If we are going to win we need to take risks.

[El Gordo]

I'll tell you what...after looking at Lance Berkman's statistics, I'd much rather have him on a 2-year deal than Konerko on a 3-year deal.

Berkman doesn't hit lefties. Lee and Konerko do.

[ChaosLex]

Konerko will gladly DH when we aquire a better First Baseman in a year or two.

Is this something you're hearing or wishful thinking?

[Johnny]

Well, since 2000, DLee has averaged 28 homers a season but other than that, you are pretty close.You are pretty much right there with Konerko.

The difference between the 2 has been the consistency of Lee and his defense is much better.

I rounded down on Lee for two reasons:

1) He's aging and although he averaged 28, Because 09 is such an anomaly a more accurate representation/prediction would be an average of the other four years, which is 21.5 HR (8, 22, 20, 35,19). He played 50 games in 06, but the 8 HR put him on pace for 25, so I factored that in. Of course, if we sign him and he blows up for 35, I'm ok with that ...:thumbsup1:

2) He posted those numbers playing against the Brewers, Pirates, Astros, and Reds for about 40 percent of the season. There's a whole lot of garbage lurking around the bullpens of these teams that simply isn't found in such quantity in the AL East = Probably not going to be an anomaly year and I should round down.

I also rounded down/ took the median-low for some stats on Konerko. For instance I left out Konerko's best 06-09 HR year (39) even though it's only 25 percent more than his average for the other 4 years (with extrapolation in 08 taking him to 28 for 152 games, he averaged 30.5). Lee's best year was 1.6 times his other-four-year average.

Anyway, taking all that jive in: I'll take either one and be happy with it if we can land them. I'd just prefer Konerko if everything is close to equal (contract length, money). He's a proven AL cleanup hitter with a higher offensive upside. His defense is not as good as Lee, but it's still very respectable. However, if Konerko wants like 3-4 years he can find it somewhere else AFAIC

[Sports Guy]

If we are going to win we need to take risks.

Konerko doesn't help us win more than Lee does.

[Sports Guy]

I rounded down on Lee for two reasons:

1) He's aging and although he averaged 28, Because 09 is such an anomaly a more accurate representation/prediction would be an average of the other four years, which is 21.5 HR (8, 22, 20, 35,19). He played 50 games in 06, but the 8 HR put him on pace for 25, so I factored that in. Of course, if we sign him and he blows up for 35, I'm ok with that ...:thumbsup1:

2) He posted those numbers playing against the Brewers, Pirates, Astros, and Reds for about 40 percent of the season. There's a whole lot of garbage lurking around the bullpens of these teams that simply isn't found in such quantity in the AL East = Probably not going to be an anomaly year and I should round down.

I also rounded down/ took the median-low for some stats on Konerko. For instance I left out Konerko's best 06-09 HR year (39) even though it's only 25 percent more than his average for the other 4 years (with extrapolation in 08 taking him to 28 for 152 games, he averaged 30.5). Lee's best year was 1.6 times his other-four-year average.

Anyway, taking all that jive in: I'll take either one and be happy with it if we can land them. I'd just prefer Konerko if everything is close to equal (contract length, money). He's a proven AL cleanup hitter with a higher offensive upside. His defense is not as good as Lee, but it's still very respectable. However, if Konerko wants like 3-4 years he can find it somewhere else AFAIC

It seems to me that you use criteria to go against Lee but not Konerko..Its not very consistent.

Konerko has put his numbers up against some bad AL Central teams and the new comiskey is a pretty good hitters park.

Why doesn't that come into play?

[AZOriole]

If we are going to win we need to take risks.

Agreed. But the risks needed to be taken aren't signing 35 year old 1B to stupid contracts. It's making a trade for a 3B who strikes out too much, and coming off a bad season, for pennies on the dollar. That's an example of a risk that needs to be taken.

[Johnny]

It seems to me that you use criteria to go against Lee but not Konerko..Its not very consistent.

Konerko has put his numbers up against some bad AL Central teams and the new comiskey is a pretty good hitters park.

Why doesn't that come into play?

didn't you say my Konerko numbers were agreeable? I was telling you how I got to 20 Hr, and thought everything i said made sense. I also mentioned i rounded Konerko's numbers down, and the reasons were pretty much the same.

But that's really beside the point. They're pretty close players and if the contracts are about the same I prefer Konerko's numbers/potential/familiarity with the AL and have no qualms about his ability to play 1B.

I wouldn't complain unless they start handing out 4 year contracts. Would you really find much fault in signing Konerko other than the draft pick?

[Johnny]

Agreed. But the risks needed to be taken aren't signing 35 year old 1B to stupid contracts. It's making a trade for a 3B who strikes out too much, and coming off a bad season, for pennies on the dollar. That's an example of a risk that needs to be taken.

oooo. oooooooooooooo. :eektf:

Can't it be both?

[Sports Guy]

didn't you say my Konerko numbers were agreeable? I was telling you how I got to 20 Hr, and thought everything i said made sense. I also mentioned i rounded Konerko's numbers down, and the reasons were pretty much the same.

But that's really beside the point. They're pretty close players and if the contracts are about the same I prefer Konerko's numbers/potential/familiarity with the AL and have no qualms about his ability to play 1B.

I wouldn't complain unless they start handing out 4 year contracts. Would you really find much fault in signing Konerko other than the draft pick?

Yes..Because it will take, at a minimum, a deal of 3/36 to get Konerko here. He is not worth another year, a draft pick and 15-20 million more than Lee.

There is just zero evidence to support that opinion.

If you want to just look at last year and say Konerko had a good year and Lee had a poor first half, fine...But all the peripheral stats(LD%, etc...) say that DLee had a little bit of bad luck..and because those numbers were down some, it makes Lee a lot cheaper and enables him to not be offered arbitration, meaning he doesn't cost us a pick.

And, if we can't get Lee, then the same theory applies to Adam LaRoche...and if we can't get LaRoche, putting Scott at first is the same. And if you don't want to put Scott at first, then perhaps a guys like Alonso or Loney become real possibilities.

[NCRaven]

I think a lot of this argument is pretty silly. Both Lee and Konerko would be the best 1Bmen for Baltimore since Raffy was in his prime. I'd be okay with it if we were able to entice either of them to come here - especially considering both have spurned us at different points in time. And, either could move to DH if we were able to sign one of the big 1Bmen available next season.

Unless we work a trade for a younger, ready to emerge first baseman, I'm fine with either and will be happy to have either bat hitting cleanup next year. Neither is a long-term answer, given their age, but I doubt either will be a disaster.

[Slappy]

I really could care less to be honest. Konerko makes us better, Lee makes us better, Pena makes us better. We talk about losing a draft pick, but it is not like we throw money around when it comes to the draft. If we gave away a second pick couldn't we just sign a first or second round player from the the Domincan? Couldn't we draft an overslot guy or two and pay up for them.

What the Orioles should be doing is landing as many draft picks as possible and investing heavily in the draft. We are likely going to lose in 2011 and 2012 with any combination of players we are likely to land in those two offseasons. Good players do not want to play for the Orioles. Even Tex didn't want to come here! Save the money, field a team that continues to develop and try to grow the minor league system. We have lost for so long that .500 seems like an accomplishment. Even if we make that jump, we will need to make a similar jump to become a true threat in the AL East.

It feels like we are getting better as our core gets older and more expensive. By the time we start playing really well we might be looking at an expensive Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, and Nick Markakis. Brian Roberts isn't getting any younger either. Guthrie is one good season away from being a 4/$48M type guy IMO. Jorge De LaRosa just got 3/$34M and Guthrie would do better than him in the NL (IMO).

I am really tired of the comments regarding players not wanting to play here, confederate money being offered, and the AL East being tough, but all of those things seem to be true. Now, if the Orioles go out and get Beltre, Konerko, and Bartlett/Hardy while helping their bullpen then I will feel that the Orioles could shock some people, but that is not likely to happen. Crawford/Werth and Beltre can easily be members of the Red Sox in 2011. Teams are just able to reload so quickly in the East. The Jays are good, the Red Sox are good, the Yankees are good, the Rays are good..... The Orioles need to be really good to compete with these teams.

What he said. Wringing our hands over Konerko, Lee, Dunn, etc. is pointless because any of them make the 2011 team significantly better. Money saved for some theoretical point in the future is dumb when you are losing 90+ games every year. Just improve the damn team, and get it done before they are all off the market.

[weams]

Is this something you're hearing or wishful thinking?

No, not directly but I have read up on him and he does not want to play until he is a liability. Let's face it, he is not a defensive wizard and DH would be a natural progression for him. So. I have read that he would DH. And I strongly believe it to be true. And he will gladly continue to play first base until his Eddie Murray comes along.

[Johnny]

Yes..Because it will take, at a minimum, a deal of 3/36 to get Konerko here. He is not worth another year, a draft pick and 15-20 million more than Lee.

There is just zero evidence to support that opinion.

If you want to just look at last year and say Konerko had a good year and Lee had a poor first half, fine...But all the peripheral stats(LD%, etc...) say that DLee had a little bit of bad luck..and because those numbers were down some, it makes Lee a lot cheaper and enables him to not be offered arbitration, meaning he doesn't cost us a pick.

And, if we can't get Lee, then the same theory applies to Adam LaRoche...and if we can't get LaRoche, putting Scott at first is the same. And if you don't want to put Scott at first, then perhaps a guys like Alonso or Loney become real possibilities.

I'd rather have a good 1B then risk going down your ladder there, which I see as another trip down the crap factory. Obviously we have budgeted up to $12 million for 1B/middle order bat based on the Martinez offer, so a 3/36 you mentioned it would take to land Konerko doesn't seem unreasonable to our budget -even though it is to you. Whether that money goes to Lee or Konerko is up to management and the player. I'm all right with either.

We have money to spend. We need a 1B who can anchor the cleanup spot and join Luke as a power threat, Konerko fits that and if we can afford him and management thinks he's a fit, how can we pass?

[24fps]

Well, while we are out there trying to sign guys that rejected us in their prime, we might as well throw a bone to Vladdy as well.

The new middle of the order can be Vladdy, Scott, and Konerko.

There's not enough room on the 40-man for everybody still playing who rejected us in their prime.

Loved your first post in this thread. :thumbsup1: