Zaaaaaaaach !!!

[Frobby]

We should actually be cycling through pitching, as the majority of it will likely have peaked before 27 as pitchers tend to peak earlier than hitters.

You should never extend a pitcher unless they are dominating and even then beyond 27 you won't likely get that performance when they were 23.

This year or next year could be Britton's career year so we need to get as many innings out of his arm at the ML level that we can at his peak level.

I'd much rather have more innings from Britton pre-prime than post-prime.

Besides, Britton is still going to be expensive in that 7th year and not as effective as he'll be a year or two from now, so now is the time to get as many innings from that arm that you can while he's still cheap and effective.

I have responded to these balantly foolish arguments from you so many times over the last 3-4 years, I don't know why I bother, but I can't help myself.

1. Let's assume you are right that a pitcher is more likely to be effective at age 23 than at age 29 (which would be the extra season we'd get by awaiting Britton's arrival). That's highly debatable, but put that to one side for a second. Do you not understand that 32-33 potential starts under team control, over a full season, is worth more than 2-3 starts in a pitcher'r rookie year? 32 vs. 3 -- is it really that hard to grasp?

2. For purposes of this analysis, it's irrelevant whether we keep Britton for all 7 years, or we trade him. If we trade him, the extra year of service time significantly enhances his trade value. So, even if one believes that we should be trading pitchers as they reach their "peak" at age 27, that extra year of availability increases the pitcher's value by a lot. It also improves our flexibility as to exactly when to trade them (if at all).

3. There were 210 games started by pitchers who were 23 years old last year. There were 397 games started by pitchers who were 29 years old. What does that tell you about the age where a pitcher is more likely to be effective?

By the way, I did a little research. The following chart shows the number of starts made by pitchers of various ages last year:

21 - 21

22 - 62

23 - 210

24 - 414

25 - 375

26 - 478

27 - 698

28 - 568

29 - 397

30 - 295

31 - 157

32 - 314

33 - 204

34 - 155

35 - 201

36 - 148

37 - 35

38 - 21

39 - 8

40 - 1

40+ - 38 (Wakefield and Moyer)

Obviously there is a lot of attrition after age 27, but there are still a lot of guys pitching up through age 36 or so.

[Hank Scorpio]

It is also not a max-effort delivery.

I think his change is already good, to judge from the two games I've seen, and he already throws it in critical spots and counts. I am pretty sure that he got two of his strikeouts yesterday on changeups. The secondary pitch that seems to need work is the slider.

I don't mind him relying on the sinker, though. I thought he could have thrown it more often (as opposed to the four-seam). He can show that pitch three or four times in an at-bat. Teixeira was sitting on it twice yesterday at 3-2 and couldn't do anything with it either time.

I saw Britton in Bowie one night where he threw 92 pitches, 87 of which were four seamers or sinkers. That kid could throw ALL fastballs and still be pretty damn good.

[murrayfan420]

Of all the ridiculous sentiments thrown around on this site.. advocating two starts being more important than an extra year of service time may take the cake.

[LookinUp]

Of all the ridiculous sentiments thrown around on this site.. advocating two starts being more important than an extra year of service time may take the cake.

Yeah, I'd have a hard time arguing for anyone of any talent level playing two extra games if it meant we could keep him for an entire extra season. Add in that we're talking about a potential #1/2 starter and not some utility infielder and it's even more ludicrous.

[Sports Guy]

Jtrea, answer these questions please:

1) Do you believe that it is a guarantee that Britton will win those 2-3 starts and whoever the other starter is will lose them?

2) Part 2 of the above question is do you believe those 2-3 wins will be the difference between us making the playoffs or not?

3) Do you believe that Britton will ALWAYS outpitch Tillman or Duscherer, in EVERY start that each could make?

[RandyM]

I have responded to these balantly foolish arguments from you so many times over the last 3-4 years, I don't know why I bother, but I can't help myself.

1. Let's assume you are right that a pitcher is more likely to be effective at age 23 than at age 29 (which would be the extra season we'd get by awaiting Britton's arrival). That's highly debatable, but put that to one side for a second. Do you not understand that 32-33 potential starts under team control, over a full season, is worth more than 2-3 starts in a pitcher'r rookie year? 32 vs. 3 -- is it really that hard to grasp?

2. For purposes of this analysis, it's irrelevant whether we keep Britton for all 7 years, or we trade him. If we trade him, the extra year of service time significantly enhances his trade value. So, even if one believes that we should be trading pitchers as they reach their "peak" at age 27, that extra year of availability increases the pitcher's value by a lot. It also improves our flexibility as to exactly when to trade them (if at all).

3. There were 210 games started by pitchers who were 23 years old last year. There were 397 games started by pitchers who were 29 years old. What does that tell you about the age where a pitcher is more likely to be effective?

By the way, I did a little research. The following chart shows the number of starts made by pitchers of various ages last year:

21 - 21

22 - 62

23 - 210

24 - 414

25 - 375

26 - 478

27 - 698

28 - 568

29 - 397

30 - 295

31 - 157

32 - 314

33 - 204

34 - 155

35 - 201

36 - 148

37 - 35

38 - 21

39 - 8

40 - 1

40+ - 38 (Wakefield and Moyer)

Obviously there is a lot of attrition after age 27, but there are still a lot of guys pitching up through age 36 or so.

This is all because some believe that a "potential" fractional win could put us in the playoffs this year. This goes back to Keith Law's point that the Guerrero signing may not be bad, but it gives people irrational thoughts of playoffs that could make for potential bad short term decisions.

I hope the front office is smarter than some people on this board.

[scOtt]

Let's look at some similar pitchers to what we hope Britton approaches, and see what you'd be trading if you'd picked their first three starts over their whole 7th year:

Kevin Brown: 21.1 innings, 9 runs, vs 233 innings of a 3.59.

Scott Erickson: 17 innings, 10 runs, vs 222 innings of a league-average ERA.

Brad Radke: 14 innings, 11 runs, vs 226 innings of a 3.94.

Tim Hudson: 19 innings, 6 runs, vs 192 innings of a 3.52.

Of course there are some others who work out less well, like Brandon Webb. But there's a legitimate chance you're trading 15-20 decent innings, for 200+ innings of a 120+ ERA+.

Well and truly stated. And I hate to generalize, but Trea and others seem to assume that Britton is going to continue this 0.64 ERA, or whatever it is today.

That WILL NOT last. Hitters will catch up to him (maybe on April 5th and 11th and when he finally pitches on the 21st...) or when he finally pitches in May or June. And hopefully he can catch BACK UP to the league!

He was a frazzled bunch of nerves in his first ST start, probably will be in his first ML start. NOBODY comes to the majors flawlessly... is one of the reasons I prefer Tillman as the 5th starter. He has already been here.

Britton is a wildcard. First ML start. 2nd and 3rd. None of us can guarantee those starts will be better than Tillman on the same days. Nor not to mention... maybe we score 6 or 8 runs those days. It could easily happen.

[scOtt]

maybe we score 6 or 8 runs those days. It could easily happen.

I hate to quote myself... but Trea harped all winter how Vlad was THE needed piece, to offset any Brian injury or anyone else... We HAD to have Vlad!

Well, we HAVE Vlad, and he seems to be producing just fine! Doesn't he guarantee Britton's starts as much as Tillman's starts, as much as Duke's starts?

Vlad is Trea's answer to every little thing that could go wrong with our offense... isn't he the answer to every little thing that could go wrong with the rotation too?

Not to mention that Trea has CONSISTENTLY claimed that the offense is MUCH more important than the starters. I ask you Trea... why is little ol' Britton of any consequence then? In you offense-o-centric world?

:slytf:

[Bradysburns]

It is also not a max-effort delivery.

I think his change is already good, to judge from the two games I've seen, and he already throws it in critical spots and counts. I am pretty sure that he got two of his strikeouts yesterday on changeups. The secondary pitch that seems to need work is the slider.

I don't mind him relying on the sinker, though. I thought he could have thrown it more often (as opposed to the four-seam). He can show that pitch three or four times in an at-bat. Teixeira was sitting on it twice yesterday at 3-2 and couldn't do anything with it either time.

Agreed on the change. When I saw him throw it, it came in a little high a couple times and inside (meat pitch for many righties if they're sitting on it). But it was such a departure from his normal arsenal that they seemed frozen by it. I didn't see anyone even swing at the change (in a small sample size of one game). Not saying it's great - but it's available.

He did start Tex out with two changeups in one at-bat, if I recall. So he understands what he's trying to do with it. That's another thing I like - he seems to have a lot of game smarts.

[OFFNY]

Zach may be the "best," regardless of whether he starts the season in AAA or Baltimore. Do I agree that Zach is the best ??? It's way too early to tell. Just give hime a chance, just like Andy has been giving almost all of our young starting pitching prospects a chance at either Baltimore and/or AAA-Norfolk and/or AA-Bowie, and see how things go.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-zach-britton-0323-20110322,0,1552077,full.story

[Frobby]

Zach may be the "best," regardless of whether he starts the season in AAA or Baltimore. Do I agree that Zach is the best ??? It's way too early to tell. Just give hime a chance, just like Andy has been giving almost all of our young starting pitching prospects a chance at either Baltimore and/or AAA-Norfolk and/or AA-Bowie, and see how things go.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-zach-britton-0323-20110322,0,1552077,full.story

This quote took a little steam out of my socks:

There has been debate among scouts this spring as to whether Britton or New York Yankees 20-year-old phenom Manuel Banuelos is the most impressive young lefty in the Grapefruit League.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Agreed on the change. When I saw him throw it, it came in a little high a couple times and inside (meat pitch for many righties if they're sitting on it). But it was such a departure from his normal arsenal that they seemed frozen by it. I didn't see anyone even swing at the change (in a small sample size of one game). Not saying it's great - but it's available.

He did start Tex out with two changeups in one at-bat, if I recall. So he understands what he's trying to do with it. That's another thing I like - he seems to have a lot of game smarts.

My pitch ID could be off, but I believe the "meat" pitch you saw was his mushy slider. He got away with it a couple of times to RHB, up in the zone without much break. I think you are correct: hitters were looking for something else, or it would have been crushed.

The change is a little slower and has nice screwball action, breaking down and away from RHB--I think it must be a circle change. He struck out Montero with it on Montero's 2nd AB.

[OFFNY]

This quote took a little steam out of my socks:

Me too. Still, I'm confidant that we can beat dem Yanks at least 10 out of 18 times over the next few seasons, even if Banuelos pans out for them.

[JTrea81]

Oh I know, there was a lot of discussion last year about pitcher aging, and some people seem to believe they peak at a different time than 27. But I'm firmly in the camp of believing that the evidence is at best ambiguous, and there's lots of data that indicates 27 is the peak age.

Even if mgl's theory is true, he's saying that pitchers are relatively flat through their mid-20s, then start creeping up after 27. So if Britton follows this pattern and is a 3.50 ERA guy through his mid 20s, he'll still be a very effective pitcher in his 7th season. You want to trade 200 innings of a 4.00-ish ERA for 15 innings in 2011 that couldn't possibly be worth more than a fraction of a win, and that's unfathomably absurd.

The question is to get that 4.00 ERA, will it be worth paying Britton what he'll get in arbitration that 7th year if he's performed well all along up to age 27?

Or would it be better to trade Britton or simply let him walk before that 7th and replace him from the minors with another arm that will have more prime years ahead of them.

My point is you won't want to pay for that 7th year anyway as you won't likely get your money's worth compared to the pitcher you could replace him with.

Once pitchers get past age 27, their production compared to their value drops faster than it does for hitters and as they age into their early 30s, pitchers get more expensive, not less due to FA and the demand for pitching.

Britton would be 28 and likely commanding over $12 million a year in arbitration when you could get a similar performance from a guy like a 24 year old Matusz for $7-8 million less.

The A's had the right idea, keep turning over your pitching every 5-6 years and don't give extensions unless the player is still showing signs of dominating past age 27. And if you will extend a pitcher, only go 1-2 years past their FA date.

[Say O!]

re: Banuelos.

Stuff-wise, maybe he has the edge over Britton. But can he maintain that stuff over 180 IP? Britton has at least shown his sinker keeps velocity ~150 IP the last 3 years.

And Britton's body type indicates that he may be able to maintain that consistently once approaching 200 IP. Banuelos is slighter build and smaller - he hasn't gone above 100 IP in the minors yet.