Bedard contract extension?

[TyCobb]

If you want to rebuild, you generally don't want to get rid of everybody who's good. That's not what good franchises do. The fact that so many people around here believe that is mainly the effect of SG and his 50,000 posts.

Bedard ain't past his prime, he's just now entering his prime. He's only now got it figured out. The next several years is exactly when you want him.

I also believe this. Bedard hasn't even improved his changeup yet.

[Leitch]

Thats laughable.

Why I oughtta

[os1971]

I also believe this. Bedard hasn't even improved his changeup yet.

He stopped throwing it after the first 5-6 games cause it was getting whacked every time. Curve and FB like hes got, you don't need a changeup.

[TyCobb]

He stopped throwing it after the first 5-6 games cause it was getting whacked every time. Curve and FB like hes got, you don't need a changeup.

He actually increased the amount of changeups he threw in a game the more the season went on.

[RShack]

He stopped throwing it after the first 5-6 games cause it was getting whacked every time. Curve and FB like hes got, you don't need a changeup.

That's exactly what Koufax said about himself. Still, it might be good to have on days when one of the other two ain't working...

Plus, it'd be fun to embarrass hitters he doesn't like... get 'em synched on FB speed, and then throw the only change-up of the whole game on a 2-strike count, just to make'm look silly ;-)

[os1971]

He actually increased the amount of changeups he threw in a game the more the season went on.

\

Wow, not the way I saw it at all. His change was getting getting killed the first few weeks of the season. Seamed, like it was mostly FB/Curve after that, pretty much the whole way through IMO.

[os1971]

That's exactly what Koufax said about himself. Still, it might be good to have on days when one of the other two ain't working...

Great stuff Rshack. Thats exactly who I was thinking about when I wrote that. Koufax didn't even bother much with 2 seamer. It was 4 seamer and curve. Hit it if you can.

[TyCobb]

\

Wow, not the way I saw it at all. His change was getting getting killed the first few weeks of the season. Seamed, like it was mostly FB/Curve after that, pretty much the whole way through IMO.

I watched every game Bedard pitch last season expect the night he threw the 2 hitter against the Rangers. He definately increased to around 5-8 changes a game his last 5 games.

[os1971]

I watched every game Bedard pitch last season expect the night he threw the 2 hitter against the Rangers. He definately increased to around 5-8 changes a game his last 5 games.

OK I'll take your word for it. I watched just about every game too, but didn't record pitches. Still he was getting killed on that pitch at the beginning of the season and had pretty much put it on the shelf for a while. I know that much for sure.

[CEB]

I am late to the party and see that the rock throwing has now begun, but I don’t understand the strategy behind several of these proposed salary offers. There are several concepts being tossed around this thread which are actually different considerations: the total amount of the contract offered Bedard, the contract’s duration, and the structure or timing of the offer.

SG’s initial question was, “…what is the most you would give Bedard for an extension?” But what is reasonable and what it will take to get him to agree are completely different questions entirely.

SG suggests an offer of $6M for 2008, $12M for 2009 and $16 M for the next three years or a total at $66M for 5 years. His inference being that $16 million was the annual equivalent of the Barry Zito contract, and thus should be reasonable and successful with Bedard. His other point being that $65M should be the most the O’s should offer Bedard.

DaveArm raises the amount to $18 per year in the out years -- for a total of $52M over 4 year or $72M over 5 years, potentially with a player option during the last two years. Belkast suggests an outward bound of $90M over 5 years. BB says $60M over 5 years.

Since his arrival, Andy MacPhail has commented repeatedly about the importance of pitching and defense. If I put myself in his shoes, I want to sign Bedard and build around him, because:

1. he is still just 28 years old and has no real history of post-TJ arm trouble;

2. he seems to have put it all together and could win 20+ games for 3-5 years or more;

3. he is under club control for 2 more years

But likewise, I am also worried because:

1. despite apparent “breakout” year he has won just 40 games over 4 seasons;

2. he may want to return to Canada and pitch for the Blue Jays (i.e. no home-team discount);

3. he may want to actually test the free agent waters and sign for major money at a time of unprecedented economic prosperity in the MLB;

4. having a dominant left handed-ace doesn’t do me much good while I am rebuilding, I want him in 2010 and 2011 when I am ready to challenge the RedSox (i.e. I might as well trade him if he is not going to extend);

5. he may actually want to play for a winner (and he cannot help but doubt whether the O’s can successfully rebuild); and

6. he may have been the one pitcher who worked well with the “legendary” pitching coach you recently fired.

Thus, if I were MacPhail, I want to try to sign Bedard now and if I can’t, I want to deal him this offseason while his value is high and I can offer the buyer two seasons of low-cost, premium pitching talent.

That being said, I suspect that Bedard would be indifferent to SG’s proposal of $65M for 5 years. Yes, it would give Bedard the security of a guaranteed contract. However, Davearm is right: professional athletes usually have supreme confidence in their ability to perform and remain injury-free. Further, Bedard is 28 and single. Security is not a huge concern for him at the moment.

Let’s assume SG is right that Bedard can reasonably expect to receive $6M for 2008 and $12M for 2009 from arbitration. Bedard could also look at the $16M for years 3-5 and conclude he could obtain that or even more on the free agent market in 2010. It might be reasonable, but if that is MacPhail’s offer, why wouldn’t Bedard wait and see what happens both with his pitching and next year’s free agent class?

The natural tradeoff in most contract negotiations is between average annual salary and contract duration. That is, a player will usually accept a smaller average salary for a longer contract, which yields a larger total. That approach often works with a player who values security or is in the latter stage of his career. Likewise, it is also an approach which works for clubs which are not reluctant to sign pitchers to large, long-term deals. I am not sure either applies in this situation.

Thus, if I were MacPhail, I would “frontload” the contract and try to take advantage of the fact that the Orioles are the only club that can offer him more for these next two years. Perhaps something like $10M in 2008, $12M in 2009, $14M in 2010 and $16M in 2011, for a total of $52M over 4 years. And maybe you even go a bit higher, but presumably not a fifth year.

This approach has several advantages for both sides: it conveys a level of respect for Bedard’s past and expected future performance, presumably forces him to reject a salary increase for 2080-2009 that he couldn’t otherwise receive, allows Bedard to re-enter free agency in 2012 and avoids the risk of a five or six-year contract for the club.

Bedard’s reaction to such a proposal would presumably tell you where he is coming from and let the club either weigh the risk of adding a fifth year or start shopping him around while he has maximum value.

CEB

[SHAWN555]

First of all I want to state that i never judge people by the number of posts about whether their respected opinion is better than posters which have less posts. That is foolish. I go by avatar and that alone.

I would offer him 4yrs 54 million, and when he declines I thank him and trade him by spring training.

I am not sold that he wants to be here. Going six years on a deal is foolish, and I would be worried about going five years. I say trade him now when he has the most value. There are some very good players being discussed being available for Johan and I think Bedard's value is similar if not better than Johan.

[eric0668]

I am late to the party and see that the rock throwing has now begun, but I don’t understand the strategy behind several of these proposed salary offers. There are several concepts being tossed around this thread which are actually different considerations: the total amount of the contract offered Bedard, the contract’s duration, and the structure or timing of the offer.

SG’s initial question was, “…what is the most you would give Bedard for an extension?” But what is reasonable and what it will take to get him to agree are completely different questions entirely.

SG suggests an offer of $6M for 2008, $12M for 2009 and $16 M for the next three years or a total at $66M for 5 years. His inference being that $16 million was the annual equivalent of the Barry Zito contract, and thus should be reasonable and successful with Bedard. His other point being that $65M should be the most the O’s should offer Bedard.

DaveArm raises the amount to $18 per year in the out years -- for a total of $52M over 4 year or $72M over 5 years, potentially with a player option during the last two years. Belkast suggests an outward bound of $90M over 5 years. BB says $60M over 5 years.

Since his arrival, Andy MacPhail has commented repeatedly about the importance of pitching and defense. If I put myself in his shoes, I want to sign Bedard and build around him, because:

1. he is still just 28 years old and has no real history of post-TJ arm trouble;

2. he seems to have put it all together and could win 20+ games for 3-5 years or more;

3. he is under club control for 2 more years

But likewise, I am also worried because:

1. despite apparent “breakout” year he has won just 40 games over 4 seasons;

2. he may want to return to Canada and pitch for the Blue Jays (i.e. no home-team discount);

3. he may want to actually test the free agent waters and sign for major money at a time of unprecedented economic prosperity in the MLB;

4. having a dominant left handed-ace doesn’t do me much good while I am rebuilding, I want him in 2010 and 2011 when I am ready to challenge the RedSox (i.e. I might as well trade him if he is not going to extend);

5. he may actually want to play for a winner (and he cannot help but doubt whether the O’s can successfully rebuild); and

6. he may have been the one pitcher who worked well with the “legendary” pitching coach you recently fired.

Thus, if I were MacPhail, I want to try to sign Bedard now and if I can’t, I want to deal him this offseason while his value is high and I can offer the buyer two seasons of low-cost, premium pitching talent.

That being said, I suspect that Bedard would be indifferent to SG’s proposal of $65M for 5 years. Yes, it would give Bedard the security of a guaranteed contract. However, Davearm is right: professional athletes usually have supreme confidence in their ability to perform and remain injury-free. Further, Bedard is 28 and single. Security is not a huge concern for him at the moment.

Let’s assume SG is right that Bedard can reasonably expect to receive $6M for 2008 and $12M for 2009 from arbitration. Bedard could also look at the $16M for years 3-5 and conclude he could obtain that or even more on the free agent market in 2010. It might be reasonable, but if that is MacPhail’s offer, why wouldn’t Bedard wait and see what happens both with his pitching and next year’s free agent class?

The natural tradeoff in most contract negotiations is between average annual salary and contract duration. That is, a player will usually accept a smaller average salary for a longer contract, which yields a larger total. That approach often works with a player who values security or is in the latter stage of his career. Likewise, it is also an approach which works for clubs which are not reluctant to sign pitchers to large, long-term deals. I am not sure either applies in this situation.

Thus, if I were MacPhail, I would “frontload” the contract and try to take advantage of the fact that the Orioles are the only club that can offer him more for these next two years. Perhaps something like $10M in 2008, $12M in 2009, $14M in 2010 and $16M in 2011, for a total of $52M over 4 years. And maybe you even go a bit higher, but presumably not a fifth year.

This approach has several advantages for both sides: it conveys a level of respect for Bedard’s past and expected future performance, presumably forces him to reject a salary increase for 2080-2009 that he couldn’t otherwise receive, allows Bedard to re-enter free agency in 2012 and avoids the risk of a five or six-year contract for the club.

Bedard’s reaction to such a proposal would presumably tell you where he is coming from and let the club either weigh the risk of adding a fifth year or start shopping him around while he has maximum value.

CEB

Excellent thread dude. He is single but has gf and baby

[JTrea81]

Regardless of what the offer is, why haven't we made an offer yet? What are we waiting for?

[NewMarketSean]

Regardless of what the offer is, why haven't we made an offer yet? What are we waiting for?

I agree. It should have been offered to Bedard the day after the World Series was over.

[Scribo]

I agree. It should have been offered to Bedard the day after the World Series was over.

Why would they make the offer if they were considering trading him? He might accept.

Most here take the attitude that they trade him only if he rejects a reasonable offer. But the FO may not feel that way. In fact, every day that goes by without an offer makes me think that they really are contemplating a trade.

(We don't know for sure that there hasn't been an offer, but probably not).