Adam Jones is amongst the worst defensive outfielders this year

[DrungoHazewood]

Any flaws in this measurement system are nothing compared to the insanely flawed system that is human observation. I get the feeling people would not be complaining if the system found that Jones was far better than they had observed (see Wieters, Matt).

People are often annoyed when some of the uncertainty in the world is taken away, because there's less room to insert opinions and have them be believed.

[JohnD]

Come on, defensive measurements don't really add that much certainty. Not the same way offensive stats do.

[DrungoHazewood]

Come on, defensive measurements don't really add that much certainty. Not the same way offensive stats do.

You're right, in that defensive numbers are about half as trustworthy over the same number of games as typical offensive numbers.

But just swagging defensive performance based on how a guy looks, with no objective baseline, is about as trustworthy as gauging hitting performance based on how pretty someone's swing is.

[Gurgi]

He didn't get either one in 2010. That was in 2009.

Yeah I know he didnt get one last year. I know it was 09. Just a sleepy error. But thanks for bringing it to my notice.

[O'sFanThruJune]

The average Centerfielder makes that catch 10 out of 20 times.

Jones makes that catch 8 out of 20 times.

Jones is 2 plays below average.

I am far from an expert in any of these stats, but I would word this slightly differently to answer other posters' questions about who determines what an average centerfielder is.

When a ball is hit into a particular zone, the UZR algorithm looks at what happened with every other ball that went to that zone. If there were 1,000 balls hit to that spot, and 600 were caught by the centerfielder, then you can say that the average CF makes that catch 6 out of 10 times. So if a guy makes that catch, he gets credit for 0.4 plays above average, and if he doesn't, he gets 0.6 plays below average. (This is my understanding; those more knowlegeable can correct me if I have something wrong).

So there's nobody out there that is defining "average centerfielder" and deciding on his own whether catches "should" be made. Adding up the data across all of baseball tells you how often plays are made in each zone, and does the work of defining "average" for us.

PS: CA-ORIOLE probably already knows this stuff better than I do; I just think people were confused by his use of "average centerfielder" in his example.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I am far from an expert in any of these stats' date=' but I would word this slightly differently to answer other posters' questions about who determines what an average centerfielder is.

When a ball is hit into a particular zone, the UZR algorithm looks at what happened with every other ball that went to that zone. If there were 1,000 balls hit to that spot, and 600 were caught by the centerfielder, then you can say that the average CF makes that catch 6 out of 10 times. So if a guy makes that catch, he gets credit for 0.4 plays above average, and if he doesn't, he gets 0.6 plays below average. (This is my understanding; those more knowlegeable can correct me if I have something wrong).

So there's nobody out there that is defining "average centerfielder" and deciding on his own whether catches "should" be made. Adding up the data across all of baseball tells you how often plays are made in each zone, and does the work of defining "average" for us.

PS: CA-ORIOLE probably already knows this stuff better than I do; I just think people were confused by his use of "average centerfielder" in his example.[/quote']

Understand. My purpose was to show him the concept in as simple a manner as possible. I did preface that and state that in actuality it's more involved than my explanation.

[Sports Guy]

I tend to think UZR is off here BUT I don't see Jones and say, damn, he is a GG CFer.

He makes too many mistakes, gets too many poor reads for me to believe that.

He should be a lot better than he is.

[Phantom]

People are often annoyed when some of the uncertainty in the world is taken away, because there's less room to insert opinions and have them be believed.

Sadly, human history is filled with examples of this. At least no one is claiming Bill James is a witch.

[Gurgi]

Sadly, human history is filled with examples of this. At least no one is claiming Bill James is a witch.

I think they did for a while. LOL>

[DrungoHazewood]

I tend to think UZR is off here BUT I don't see Jones and say, damn, he is a GG CFer.

He makes too many mistakes, gets too many poor reads for me to believe that.

He should be a lot better than he is.

I suppose it's plausible that Jones would get better reads and better positioning and make fewer mistakes with better coaching or teaching. But I'm very careful in saying that a major league baseball player should be something much more than he really is. It's also plausible that most players with Jones' natural gifts wash out in A ball.

[DrungoHazewood]

Sadly, human history is filled with examples of this. At least no one is claiming Bill James is a witch.

If you put Bill James on the mound and have him throw 150 pitches a game every game for 350 innings, he's a witch. If not, then we know PAP works.

That joke might not even work at a SABR convention.

[Gurgi]

I suppose it's plausible that Jones would get better reads and better positioning and make fewer mistakes with better coaching or teaching. But I'm very careful in saying that a major league baseball player should be something much more than he really is. It's also plausible that most players with Jones' natural gifts wash out in A ball.

There are some cases of guys getting better at defense in pro ball. But it doesnt seem anywhere near the majority of guys get better after they get here.

Just with my eyes I dont think Jones goes back on balls that well and honestly doesnt come in on balls that well.

He is extremely athletic. It just doesnt seem to be enough.

[TradeAngelos]

I tend to think UZR is off here BUT I don't see Jones and say, damn, he is a GG CFer.

He makes too many mistakes, gets too many poor reads for me to believe that.

He should be a lot better than he is.

Who is claiming he is a GG centerfielder?

Nobody.

We are saying to call him the worst defender in basball is preposterous. And it is.

[Phantom]

If you put Bill James on the mound and have him throw 150 pitches a game every game for 350 innings, he's a witch. If not, then we know PAP works.

That joke might not even work at a SABR convention.

Well I laughed my ass off, at least.

[Sports Guy]

Who is claiming he is a GG centerfielder?Nobody.

We are saying to call him the worst defender in basball is preposterous. And it is.

Did I say anybody claimed that? A little reading comprehension and intelligence can go a far way.