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Hammel/Chen/Hunter/Matusz/Arrieta -- a solid starting five?

Frobby

By Frobby
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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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For right now, my starting five is Hammel, Chen, Hunter, Matusz, Arrieta -- put in that order because I think Buck will want to split up the two lefties. Assuming that's it, how decent of a starting five can that be?

Right now, my gut feeling is that it's no worse than average. Clearly missing an ace, but the back end seems very strong to me. And, there's good depth in case someone gets hurt or performs poorly.

Sign me up for the Orioles' starters making a very significant jump from last year. Of course, the whole season depends on it.

Considering that last year, 12 starting pitchers combined to win 46 games and these 5 have a good shot to win 46 between them, I don't see how we wont improve. That leaves Wada, Britton, Tillman and Bergesen to combine for another 10 W's. Assuming the bullpen can account for 23 W's like last season, we are in the neighborhood of .500.
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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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Well Matusz is pitching tomorrow, so it almost has to be:

Arriet, Hunter/Chen, Hammel, Hunter/Chen, Matusz

It pretty much has to be Arrieta, Chen, Hammel, Matusz, Hunter. You don't want to give Chen his first ML start against the MFY's Matusz has faced them before. No big deal for him.
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crowmst3k! All-Star

crowmst3k!

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Yeah what was the best ERA any of those guys put up in the bigs last year? 5? I think this could be historically bad if Chen does't pan out.
Yeah what was the best ERA any of those guys put up in the bigs last year? 5? I think this could be historically bad if Chen does't pan out.

Looking at Matusz, you can't reasonably expect him to be anywhere close to his historically horrible 2011. Arrieta is healthy, again, and both Hammel and Hunter were in the 4's.

I'm going to go with the Bill James predictions from fangraphs for the rotation:

Hunter: Era: 4.38, FIP: 4.43

Arrieta: ERA: 4.76, FIP: 4.74

Chen: No Data, None Available

Hammel: ERA: 4.53, FIP: 4.12

Matusz: ERA: 4.74, FIP: 4.5

American League Average ERA for 2011 was 4.08

If the projections are spot-on, let's say, not counting Chen obviously, the staff mean ERA would be 4.59

In order for Chen to make it historically bad, he'd have to be an exceptionally inept pitcher.

The worst pitching staff in the history of the live ball era were the 1929 Philadelphia Phillies, with their 6.13 staff ERA.

To find out how crappy Chen would have to be, and for how long, to have the rotation reach this milestone I calculated his ineptitude to have to be around a 7.5ERA for 140 or so innings.

First: I don't expect Buck to give Chen that kind of a leash if he's bad. Second: I don't expect Chen to be that bad.

The predictions of the Orioles fielding a historically bad starting staff are a bit wild.

I feel way better about this staff than the wretched 2009 staff, who were largely unwatchable outside of Brad Bergesen.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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It pretty much has to be Arrieta, Chen, Hammel, Matusz, Hunter. You don't want to give Chen his first ML start against the MFY's Matusz has faced them before. No big deal for him.

This. You can't start Chen against the Skanks. I'm very much looking forward to seeing him Saturday night!

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I'm gonna go with 8 win 45 games.
That would be like a record or something.

I think that means the O's would have to go at least 360 and (-198). John Clarkson was the last 45-game winner when he tallied 49 back in '89. The current record for 45-game winners on a team is one, shared by 16 different teams. Seems it's been something of a struggle to win 45 since they moved the pitching distance back (and up) in '93. But we do have the considerable talents of Rick Peterson on our side now!

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I think each of the five will win at least 10 games.
If I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet, I wouldn't be more surprised.

What he didn't mention was that each would win exactly 10 games, and no other member of staff is going to notch a single decision this year. Each of the five starters is going to go 10-22 or 10-23 this year.

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NCRaven Hangout Grand Counsel

NCRaven

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What he didn't mention was that each would win exactly 10 games, and no other member of staff is going to notch a single decision this year. Each of the five starters is going to go 10-22 or 10-23 this year.

Seems unlikely since Guthrie lead baseball in losses over the last three years without losing more than 17 games in a season. ;):D

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Looking at Matusz, you can't reasonably expect him to be anywhere close to his historically horrible 2011. Arrieta is healthy, again, and both Hammel and Hunter were in the 4's.

I'm going to go with the Bill James predictions from fangraphs for the rotation:

Hunter: Era: 4.38, FIP: 4.43

Arrieta: ERA: 4.76, FIP: 4.74

Chen: No Data, None Available

Hammel: ERA: 4.53, FIP: 4.12

Matusz: ERA: 4.74, FIP: 4.5

American League Average ERA for 2011 was 4.08

If the projections are spot-on, let's say, not counting Chen obviously, the staff mean ERA would be 4.59

In order for Chen to make it historically bad, he'd have to be an exceptionally inept pitcher.

The worst pitching staff in the history of the live ball era were the 1929 Philadelphia Phillies, with their 6.13 staff ERA.

To find out how crappy Chen would have to be, and for how long, to have the rotation reach this milestone I calculated his ineptitude to have to be around a 7.5ERA for 140 or so innings.

First: I don't expect Buck to give Chen that kind of a leash if he's bad. Second: I don't expect Chen to be that bad.

The predictions of the Orioles fielding a historically bad starting staff are a bit wild.

I feel way better about this staff than the wretched 2009 staff, who were largely unwatchable outside of Brad Bergesen.

Nice analysis. I guess I'm not the only one who occasionally enjoys quantifying just how nuts some people are.

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