SI.com: Why the O's Post Season Dream is all but Impossible

[Snutchy]

The Orioles are doing something strange. I can't figure out what it is, but they've got something up their sleeves. They're on to something that the league hasn't figured out yet. Billyball type stuff.

[Lucky Jim]

You sure cling to the numbers like there has never been, or ever will be, an exception. You may be right, but your level of certainty is puzzling.

I'm going to guess that it's "puzzling" because you don't comprehend what I've posted about "numbers." Where do I cling to them? Where do I hold them up as certain? Find a post, then we'll talk.

[Fan4Life]

I'm going to guess that it's "puzzling" because you don't comprehend what I've posted about "numbers." Where do I cling to them? Where do I hold them up as certain? Find a post, then we'll talk.

I think I understand them. I am mostly referring to the discussion about O's outplaying their Pythag and the idea as to whether that can continue or not. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe you are heavy in the belief that the O's cannot continue to outplay their Pythag in the second half and will come back to earth as the numbers suggest they should? And if that is relatively close to your position, then the conclusion from it would be they aren't going to make it to the playoffs.

[Eutaw]

The Orioles are doing something strange. I can't figure out what it is, but they've got something up their sleeves. They're on to something that the league hasn't figured out yet. Billyball type stuff.

Fun to think about

iPhone 4 Tapatalk Master Race Out

[Lucky Jim]

I think I understand them. I am mostly referring to the discussion about O's outplaying their Pythag and the idea as to whether that can continue or not. Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe you are heavy in the belief that the O's cannot continue to outplay their Pythag in the second half and will come back to earth as the numbers suggest they should? And if that is relatively close to your position, then the conclusion from it would be they aren't going to make it to the playoffs.

I am not "heavy" in any belief. I am, however, "heavy bored"* w/ the constant mischaracterizations of other posters' thoughts and opinions - and the rampant, aggressive mischaracterization of statistics in general.

I believe it is unlikely that the Orioles will continue to outplay their pythag and thus continue to compete for a wildcard if their run-differential does not change. It's my opinion that the most likely forward scenario w/ this kind of run differential will be a redistribution of those runs into lesser outcomes. There's no certainty, however - merely probabilities (a fact this article makes clear).

Of course, it is also possible the team will improve their run differential, and compete for the rest of the year w/ a differential that's not so anomalous. And it is also possible they will start to lose more games. We have a strange team, with some enormous flaws. But we're in it, and will continue to be until we're not.

Arguing that we have an entirely (or nearly) new rotation is fine and good: it's a variable that may distinguish our case from other teams throughout history. But the point stands that, in general: having your entire rotation falter during the season isn't a particularly safe bet as a catalyst for positive results.

*DREAM SONG 14

John Berryman

Life, friends, is boring. We must not say so.

After all, the sky flashes, the great sea yearns,

we ourselves flash and yearn,

and moreover my mother told me as a boy

(repeatingly) "Ever to confess you're bored

means you have no

Inner Resources." I conclude now I have no

inner resources, because I am heavy bored.

Peoples bore me,

literature bores me, especially great literature,

Henry bores me, with his plights & gripes

as bad as Achilles,

who loves people and valiant art, which bores me.

And the tranquil hills, & gin, look like a drag

and somehow a dog

has taken itself & its tail considerably away

into the mountains or sea or sky, leaving

behind: me, wag.

[callahan09]

From the article:

Baltimore?s Pythagorean record ? its record based upon runs scored and runs allowed, a better predictor of future performance than a team?s actual record ? is 48-60.

I'd like to see some evidence of this. It's stated unequivocally, like it's just a fact that we all need to accept. I don't necessarily accept it. Where is the proof that partial-season pythag has any value for predicting the way a team will finish that season?

[NewMarketSean]

Here's what they don't mention, which are huge factors in our ability to outplay our Pythagorean record...

1. Our record in 1-run and extra-inning games, which comes from our outstanding bullpen.

2. Jim Johnson's ERA is skewed by his abysmal 6 ER game against the A's.

3. Chen, Gonzalez, and Tillman's recent success, not to mention Hammel coming back from the DL later this month.

4. The otherwise weak AL (East).

5. We are a team of destiny!!!

[Lucky Jim]

Here's what they don't mention, which are huge factors in our ability to outplay our Pythagorean record...

1. Our record in 1-run and extra-inning games, which comes from our outstanding bullpen.

2. Jim Johnson's ERA is skewed by his abysmal 6 ER game against the A's.

3. Chen, Gonzalez, and Tillman's recent success, not to mention Hammel coming back from the DL later this month.

4. The otherwise weak AL (East).

5. We are a team of destiny!!!

By "not mention" do you mean "talk at length about"?

They generally stem from an irregular distribution of runs. “Randomness” may be a better term, but there’s often a method to the madness, in that overachieving teams tend to win most of the close games — the ones where narrow leads are protected by a team’s best relievers — but get blown out a few times, in games where the team’s worst pitchers are most likely to be deployed.

The Orioles fit that pattern almost to a tee. They have the league’s third-best bullpen ERA at 3.16, though that mark is offset somewhat by their league-high 36 percent rate of allowing inherited runners to score. Their Fair Run Average, which divides up the responsibility for inherited runners between starters and relievers according to the base-out situation, ranks fifth in the league at 4.18.

What’s remarkable is that the Orioles are an astounding 21-6 in one-run games, producing the highest winning percentage (.778) in such games since 1901.

[Dipper9]

Here's what they don't mention, which are huge factors in our ability to outplay our Pythagorean record...

1. Our record in 1-run and extra-inning games, which comes from our outstanding bullpen.

2. Jim Johnson's ERA is skewed by his abysmal 6 ER game against the A's.

3. Chen, Gonzalez, and Tillman's recent success, not to mention Hammel coming back from the DL later this month.

4. The otherwise weak AL (East).

5. We are a team of destiny!!!

In my best Ronald Reagan impersonation....

"Mr. Sean...tear down that bag!"

[Fan4Life]

I am not "heavy" in any belief. I am, however, "heavy bored"* w/ the constant mischaracterizations of other posters' thoughts and opinions - and the rampant, aggressive mischaracterization of statistics in general.

Thanks for the clarification. I noticed in a post by Drungo that while we may not be the worst team with regard to losing games when our opposition scores 5 runs or more, I thought the fact that we've been outscored by 54 runs in those games was more telling. It seemed to support the theory by those of us who believe we win a lot of close games, and lose in some blowouts. Now, I haven't seen the run differential when we score 5 runs or more which will reduce the impact of the earlier number somewhat.

[VeveJones007]

By "not mention" do you mean "talk at length about"?

Heresy! Are you actually suggesting that someone should read an article before discrediting it?!

[VeveJones007]

The bullpen has been near perfect in close games. Could they keep up the pace? Sure. Is it the most likely outcome? Probably not.

[Lucky Jim]

The bullpen has been near perfect in close games. Could they keep up the pace? Sure. Is it the most likely outcome? Probably not.

We're actually relatively low-ranked in blown saves, which is odd. Though we've won a lot of the games where we've blown the save. Some might chalk that up to clutch-iness, some to luck. To me, it's just another anomaly in a season of anomalies.

[Fan4Life]

The Orioles fit that pattern almost to a tee. They have the league’s third-best bullpen ERA at 3.16, though that mark is offset somewhat by their league-high 36 percent rate of allowing inherited runners to score. Their Fair Run Average, which divides up the responsibility for inherited runners between starters and relievers according to the base-out situation, ranks fifth in the league at 4.18.

The information here almost doesn't seem to fit with what I've seen this year and can only presume that while we give up a league high of inherited runners to score, our pen must be entering games more often than most with nobody on.

[bdlj0887]

When using Pythag to evaluate future success, shouldn't we be eliminating statistical outliers; after all, it's a statistical analysis. I think there was a post in a gamethread a few days back that when you add up the blowout losses and the wins, it makes up for most of the negative run differential. I think that gives a better indicator of where we are now, a little bit lucky with an incredible bullpen.