Jurrjens Silence is Deafening (Deal in doubt?)

[El Gordo]

Go read post 8 in the thread.

Jim Duquette? :rofl: Again I ask is there a source for this.:rolleyestf:

[Tx Oriole]

It's really not a tough question at all. You simply walk away. The risk does not equal the potential reward for a player of Jurjens caliber.

You may be right.

[RichmondVA Orio]

I think you're mixing knee issues. If he's "bone-on-bone" that's a cartilage or meniscus issue. Damage to ligaments (especially the ACL) can be fixed by replacing the damaged part with patella tendon/hamstring graft/cadaver part. The cartilage or meniscus is a much more serious problem with less direct paths to fixing, including microfracture or injection of lubricants or various other near-experimental treatments. If he has serious cartilage or meniscus problems it may be very questionable if he'll be able to play effectively again. I've had two ACLs done and almost no issues. I have a buddy who had a serious meniscus tear and he's done, no more team/contact sports at all.

I had a meniscectomy for a meniscus tear and within a 6 weeks I was back to 100% with no lingering effects. This includes rec league basketball and softball. I guess with the meniscus it depends on how bad the tear is and how much they have to remove. Sometimes they can actually sew it back up without having to remove any of the meniscus.

[DrungoHazewood]

I had a meniscectomy for a meniscus tear and within a 6 weeks I was back to 100% with no lingering effects. This includes rec league basketball and softball. I guess with the meniscus it depends on how bad the tear is and how much they have to remove. Sometimes they can actually sew it back up without having to remove any of the meniscus.

My friend had a situation where a large piece of the meniscus essentially folded over after detaching from the bone. They patched it back together as best they could, but said re-injury and further damage was likely if he played any more.

[24fps]

There is still some wiggle room in treatment even if he has some fairly serious meniscus/cartilage damage. I think Randy Johnson pitched for a number of years with problems like that, and he'd get some kind of lubricant injected into his knee to minimize the problem. Magglio had some kind of experimental treatment in Germany, probably some kind of microfracture to try to get the cartilage to grow back. Depending on what's really going on inside his knee it might be worth some treatment while on an low initial value/incentivized contract.

The lubricant you're referring to is probably Hyaluronic Acid and it's value is dependent on the condition. It also naturally wears off relatively quickly. I believe Ordonez's microfracture surgery was performed primarily to improve blood circulation. I'm curious as to why simple knee replacement surgery isn't being mentioned if Jurrjen's problem is something along the lines of advanced osteoarthritis, which is the impression I'm getting from what little information there is out there.

[Rene88]

"Bone on Bone" Super. Sure sounds like we should have signed Saunders. Very very frustrating.

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2013/02/duquette-on-jurrjens-saunders-redmond-and-robinson.html

[Can_of_corn]

"Bone on Bone" Super. Sure sounds like we should have signed Saunders. Very very frustrating.

http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roch/2013/02/duquette-on-jurrjens-saunders-redmond-and-robinson.html

I don't see what one has to do with the other. I don't think Jurrjens was signed with the expectation he would make the team out of ST.

[Rene88]

I don't see what one has to do with the other. I don't think Jurrjens was signed with the expectation he would make the team out of ST.

Agreed, but now we don't have Saunders nor any serious level of hope for JJ. He is talking about this Rule 5 guy. Does anyone see him as a serious candidate to make the starting rotation?

[Can_of_corn]

Agreed, but now we don't have Saunders nor any serious level of hope for JJ. He is talking about this Rule 5 guy. Does anyone see him as a serious candidate to make the starting rotation?

No, but then again I didn't think they could make almost a full season with Flaherty taking up a roster spot.

[mdbdotcom]

I am hopeful that out of S. Johnson, Arrieta, and Britton, someone can hold down the #5 spot through the first half of the season. I expect one of Wada, Bundy, or Gausman to take it for the second half.

[Can_of_corn]

Seems pretty obvious the O's are just trying to decrease the guaranteed money to Jurrjens. Sounds like it still gets done since neither side has pulled out yet. I do think this throws a little more doubt on Jurrjens though. I think this news clearly boosts the chances for Matusz, Britton, Johnson, and Arrieta to take that 5th spot. It's also pretty clear that the O's were not too serious about bringing Saunders back. I am very suprised that DD keeps bringing McFarland up as basically an equal competitor with the others for the 5th spot. Looking at his minor league numbers and reading the scouting reports doesn't seem to justify those comments.

Then again he was impressed with Dana Eveland.

[mdbdotcom]

Then again he was impressed with Dana Eveland.

He will speak highly of any player under contract. Theoretically, any one of them could break out and become the next Jose Bautista. And, they are all Orioles.

[LookitsPuck]

Writing was on the wall when they picked up Redmond.

Redmond is insurance if/when the Jurrjens deal doesn't go through. Jurrjens was picked up as a kid with a lot of potential, but with a lot of question marks. That said, it's a bit curious of whether the (at the time) signing of Jurrjens is what pushed signing Saunders to the side. If so, it's a bit of pie in Duquette's face.

The issue I have with the current crop of #5 starters is that none of them can be particularly counted on to last the length of the season and pitch somewhat decently:

Jake Arrieta - inconsistent

Zach Britton - inconsistent, hurt

Brian Matusz - effective in bullpen, but as a starter inconsistent and hurt

Steve Johnson - very effective, but only started 4 games in 2012. Can he stick?

TJ McFarland - young (23), but overall lackluster numbers in AAA (4.82 ERA, 1.412 WHIP, 4.8 SO/9, 2.9 BB/).

Todd Redmond - A Zach Clark type, but we have no idea how his numbers translate to the majors.

Now, we do have other potential stop gaps like Tommy Hunter who could slot into the rotation, but we should stay away from that by all means.

And we need to look into this little fact:

Prior to the amazing 2012 season, would any of us have guessed: Gonzalez, Tillman, Chen, and Hammel would have been effective as they were? Now, I'd argue for Chen and Hammel, but Gonzalez and Tillman were mysteries. Hammel was hurt for a portion of 2012. So we definitely need insurance there.

So, yeah. I can give Duquette all the credit in the world for building up depth. We have a lot of SP options for 2013: McFarland, Redmond, Johnson, Matusz, Hunter, Britton, Arrieta, and then eventually (possibly) Bundy and Gausman.

But we're hedging a lot on our 4 SP options being effective so that the 5th isn't that much of an issue (can make it a revolving door).

So, Duquette probably believed in his heart of hearts that Saunders over a full season in Camden Yards would probably but up elevated numbers from his years in LA. Probably something like a 4.50 ERA. But that's not bad. Certainly not for a #5 starter. But Dan thinks he can hodge podge a concoction of #5 starters that would put up numbers close to that 4.50 ERA. I'm not so sure.

[El Gordo]

Writing was on the wall when they picked up Redmond.

Redmond is insurance if/when the Jurrjens deal doesn't go through. Jurrjens was picked up as a kid with a lot of potential, but with a lot of question marks. That said, it's a bit curious of whether the (at the time) signing of Jurrjens is what pushed signing Saunders to the side. If so, it's a bit of pie in Duquette's face.

The issue I have with the current crop of #5 starters is that none of them can be particularly counted on to last the length of the season and pitch somewhat decently:

Jake Arrieta - inconsistent

Zach Britton - inconsistent, hurt

Brian Matusz - effective in bullpen, but as a starter inconsistent and hurt

Steve Johnson - very effective, but only started 4 games in 2012. Can he stick?

TJ McFarland - young (23), but overall lackluster numbers in AAA (4.82 ERA, 1.412 WHIP, 4.8 SO/9, 2.9 BB/).

Todd Redmond - A Zach Clark type, but we have no idea how his numbers translate to the majors.

Now, we do have other potential stop gaps like Tommy Hunter who could slot into the rotation, but we should stay away from that by all means.

And we need to look into this little fact:

Prior to the amazing 2012 season, would any of us have guessed: Gonzalez, Tillman, Chen, and Hammel would have been effective as they were? Now, I'd argue for Chen and Hammel, but Gonzalez and Tillman were mysteries. Hammel was hurt for a portion of 2012. So we definitely need insurance there.

So, yeah. I can give Duquette all the credit in the world for building up depth. We have a lot of SP options for 2013: McFarland, Redmond, Johnson, Matusz, Hunter, Britton, Arrieta, and then eventually (possibly) Bundy and Gausman.

But we're hedging a lot on our 4 SP options being effective so that the 5th isn't that much of an issue (can make it a revolving door).

So, Duquette probably believed in his heart of hearts that Saunders over a full season in Camden Yards would probably but up elevated numbers from his years in LA. Probably something like a 4.50 ERA. But that's not bad. Certainly not for a #5 starter. But Dan thinks he can hodge podge a concoction of #5 starters that would put up numbers close to that 4.50 ERA. I'm not so sure.

The nice thing about depth is it allows us to replace anyone who is struggling quickly, rather than putting up with 6-8 bad starts before pulling the plug. Britton, Matusz, Wada, Arrieta, Johnson, Redmond, and Jurrjens, aren't sure things, but if they each get a shot to start they will likely win more than one game apiece before the plug gets pulled on them, and that adds up to more than than 10 W from the #5 slot. Could be a lot more. One of our big problems last season was we had to put up with Matusz,Hunter, and Arrieta far to long before sending them down, because there was no one to replace them.

[wildbillhiccup]

The nice thing about depth is it allows us to replace anyone who is struggling quickly, rather than putting up with 6-8 bad starts before pulling the plug. Britton, Matusz, Wada, Arrieta, Johnson, Redmond, and Jurrjens, aren't sure things, but if they each get a shot to start they will likely win more than one game apiece before the plug gets pulled on them, and that adds up to more than than 10 W from the #5 slot. Could be a lot more. One of our big problems last season was we had to put up with Matusz,Hunter, and Arrieta far to long before sending them down, because there was no one to replace them.

Depth is nice, but lets not forget quantity does not necessarily equal quality.