Matt Wieters to Boras: Keep me in Baltimore

[Frobby]

Well... if he's catching at this level 10 years into his career, then sure. But what makes you think he'll still be behind the plate in years 5 and 6 of that contract (years 9 and 10 in the bigs)? Mauer is entering his 10th year so he didn't even make it that far behind the plate (actually it's more like his 9th if you're picky).

Look, there is potential upside and potential risk with any deal. There are many examples of good defensive catchers who caught until they were 40 years old or older. We are talking about a deal that would take Wieters through his age 32 season. That is hardly ancient for a catcher. It would be interesting to do a study of all star/gold glove catchers at age 26 and see how many of them were not starting catchers at age 32.

In my opinion, Wieters' current level of performance is worth about $20 mm over a full season. If he blossoms offensively, he could be worth $30 mm in a full year. The market's going to go up, not down. So I'd take the risk of injury or deteriorated performance to lock in the guy I believe is the most important player to this franchise.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Yes. Here is what I'd had in mind for an opening bid (by the way, I formulated this before Wieters' 2013 salary was agreed):

2013 $5.5 mm (arb. eligible)

2014 $8.5 mm (arb. eligible)

2015 $11 mm (arb. eligible)

2016 $13 mm (FA)

2017 $14 mm (FA)

2018 $15 mm (FA)

To give some context here, Yadier Molina signed a 5/$75 mm deal that begins this season, covering 5 years in which he'd be a free agent. He signed that deal after posting an .814 OPS and backstopping the team that won the World Series, and earning his 4th straight Gold Glove and 3rd straight all-star appearance. In that context, I think what I suggested is a very fair starting point.

I think if we make the last 3 years a round 15MM each he goes for that. Maybe with a little sweetener like a signing bonus and/or an option year with a buyout.

I'd prefer to have 5 years and an option but 6 years (with or without an option) is palatable.

[webbrick2010]

Here's the thing: I want Wieters here for the next six years even if he hits exactly the same as he has for the first four years of his career.

Even if he starts breaking down and he can only catch 85-100 games a year.

The problem I have always had with Matt is his offensive numbers don't translate to 1B or DH. All his value is tied to catching, and he certainly doesn't have the typical body for a long term catching career.

[DrungoHazewood]

It would be interesting to do a study of all star/gold glove catchers at age 26 and see how many of them were not starting catchers at age 32.

So this is sort of what you're asking for. There have been 41 catchers who were All Stars at some point in their careers, and had 450+ games caught through age 26.

17 of those 41 (41%) caught at least 100 games at age 32:

[TABLE]

<TBODY>[TR]

[TH]Rk

[/TH]

[TH]Player

[/TH]

[TH]G

[/TH]

[TH]From

[/TH]

[TH]To

[/TH]

[TH]Age

[/TH]

[TH]PA

[/TH]

[TH]AB

[/TH]

[TH]R

[/TH]

[TH]H

[/TH]

[TH]2B

[/TH]

[TH]3B

[/TH]

[TH]HR

[/TH]

[TH]RBI

[/TH]

[TH]BB

[/TH]

[TH]IBB

[/TH]

[TH]SO

[/TH]

[TH]HBP

[/TH]

[TH]SH

[/TH]

[TH]SF

[/TH]

[TH]GDP

[/TH]

[TH]SB

[/TH]

[TH]CS

[/TH]

[TH]BA

[/TH]

[TH]OBP

[/TH]

[TH]SLG

[/TH]

[TH]OPS

[/TH]

[TH]Pos

[/TH]

[TH]Tm

[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]Jason Kendall

[/TD]

[TD]143

[/TD]

[TD]2006

[/TD]

[TD]2006

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]626

[/TD]

[TD]552

[/TD]

[TD]76

[/TD]

[TD]163

[/TD]

[TD]23

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]50

[/TD]

[TD]53

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]54

[/TD]

[TD]12

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]19

[/TD]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD].295

[/TD]

[TD].367

[/TD]

[TD].342

[/TD]

[TD].709

[/TD]

[TD]*2/D

[/TD]

[TD]OAK

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]Johnny Edwards

[/TD]

[TD]140

[/TD]

[TD]1970

[/TD]

[TD]1970

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]515

[/TD]

[TD]458

[/TD]

[TD]46

[/TD]

[TD]101

[/TD]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]49

[/TD]

[TD]51

[/TD]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD]63

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].221

[/TD]

[TD].299

[/TD]

[TD].319

[/TD]

[TD].618

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]HOU

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]Gabby Hartnett

[/TD]

[TD]140

[/TD]

[TD]1933

[/TD]

[TD]1933

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]535

[/TD]

[TD]490

[/TD]

[TD]55

[/TD]

[TD]135

[/TD]

[TD]21

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD]88

[/TD]

[TD]37

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]51

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]17

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].276

[/TD]

[TD].326

[/TD]

[TD].433

[/TD]

[TD].759

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]CHC

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]Ted Simmons

[/TD]

[TD]137

[/TD]

[TD]1982

[/TD]

[TD]1982

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]581

[/TD]

[TD]539

[/TD]

[TD]73

[/TD]

[TD]145

[/TD]

[TD]29

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]23

[/TD]

[TD]97

[/TD]

[TD]32

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]40

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]20

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].269

[/TD]

[TD].309

[/TD]

[TD].451

[/TD]

[TD].759

[/TD]

[TD]*2/D

[/TD]

[TD]MIL

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]Ivan Rodriguez

[/TD]

[TD]135

[/TD]

[TD]2004

[/TD]

[TD]2004

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]575

[/TD]

[TD]527

[/TD]

[TD]72

[/TD]

[TD]176

[/TD]

[TD]32

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]19

[/TD]

[TD]86

[/TD]

[TD]41

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]91

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD].334

[/TD]

[TD].383

[/TD]

[TD].510

[/TD]

[TD].893

[/TD]

[TD]*2/D

[/TD]

[TD]DET

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]Yogi Berra

[/TD]

[TD]134

[/TD]

[TD]1957

[/TD]

[TD]1957

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]545

[/TD]

[TD]482

[/TD]

[TD]74

[/TD]

[TD]121

[/TD]

[TD]14

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]24

[/TD]

[TD]82

[/TD]

[TD]57

[/TD]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD]24

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD].251

[/TD]

[TD].329

[/TD]

[TD].438

[/TD]

[TD].767

[/TD]

[TD]*2/79

[/TD]

[TD]NYY

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]Ramon Hernandez

[/TD]

[TD]133

[/TD]

[TD]2008

[/TD]

[TD]2008

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]507

[/TD]

[TD]463

[/TD]

[TD]49

[/TD]

[TD]119

[/TD]

[TD]22

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]65

[/TD]

[TD]32

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]62

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].257

[/TD]

[TD].308

[/TD]

[TD].406

[/TD]

[TD].714

[/TD]

[TD]*2/3D

[/TD]

[TD]BAL

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]Gary Carter

[/TD]

[TD]132

[/TD]

[TD]1986

[/TD]

[TD]1986

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]573

[/TD]

[TD]490

[/TD]

[TD]81

[/TD]

[TD]125

[/TD]

[TD]14

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]24

[/TD]

[TD]105

[/TD]

[TD]62

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]63

[/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]21

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].255

[/TD]

[TD].337

[/TD]

[TD].439

[/TD]

[TD].776

[/TD]

[TD]*2/3795

[/TD]

[TD]NYM

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]Jim Sundberg

[/TD]

[TD]131

[/TD]

[TD]1983

[/TD]

[TD]1983

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]423

[/TD]

[TD]378

[/TD]

[TD]30

[/TD]

[TD]76

[/TD]

[TD]14

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]28

[/TD]

[TD]35

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]64

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD].201

[/TD]

[TD].272

[/TD]

[TD].254

[/TD]

[TD].526

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]TEX

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD]Bill Dickey

[/TD]

[TD]128

[/TD]

[TD]1939

[/TD]

[TD]1939

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]565

[/TD]

[TD]480

[/TD]

[TD]98

[/TD]

[TD]145

[/TD]

[TD]23

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]24

[/TD]

[TD]105

[/TD]

[TD]77

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]37

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].302

[/TD]

[TD].403

[/TD]

[TD].513

[/TD]

[TD].915

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]NYY

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD]Darrell Porter

[/TD]

[TD]127

[/TD]

[TD]1984

[/TD]

[TD]1984

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]493

[/TD]

[TD]422

[/TD]

[TD]56

[/TD]

[TD]98

[/TD]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD]68

[/TD]

[TD]60

[/TD]

[TD]12

[/TD]

[TD]79

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD].232

[/TD]

[TD].331

[/TD]

[TD].363

[/TD]

[TD].693

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]STL

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]12

[/TD]

[TD]Lance Parrish

[/TD]

[TD]123

[/TD]

[TD]1988

[/TD]

[TD]1988

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]478

[/TD]

[TD]424

[/TD]

[TD]44

[/TD]

[TD]91

[/TD]

[TD]17

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]60

[/TD]

[TD]47

[/TD]

[TD]7

[/TD]

[TD]93

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].215

[/TD]

[TD].293

[/TD]

[TD].370

[/TD]

[TD].663

[/TD]

[TD]*2/3

[/TD]

[TD]PHI

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]13

[/TD]

[TD]Mike Scioscia

[/TD]

[TD]119

[/TD]

[TD]1991

[/TD]

[TD]1991

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]404

[/TD]

[TD]345

[/TD]

[TD]39

[/TD]

[TD]91

[/TD]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]40

[/TD]

[TD]47

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]32

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD].264

[/TD]

[TD].353

[/TD]

[TD].391

[/TD]

[TD].745

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]LAD

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]14

[/TD]

[TD]Jerry Grote

[/TD]

[TD]119

[/TD]

[TD]1975

[/TD]

[TD]1975

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]428

[/TD]

[TD]386

[/TD]

[TD]28

[/TD]

[TD]114

[/TD]

[TD]14

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]39

[/TD]

[TD]38

[/TD]

[TD]8

[/TD]

[TD]23

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD].295

[/TD]

[TD].357

[/TD]

[TD].373

[/TD]

[TD].731

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]NYM

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]Mickey Cochrane

[/TD]

[TD]115

[/TD]

[TD]1935

[/TD]

[TD]1935

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]522

[/TD]

[TD]411

[/TD]

[TD]93

[/TD]

[TD]131

[/TD]

[TD]33

[/TD]

[TD]3

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]47

[/TD]

[TD]96

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]15

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]11

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD].319

[/TD]

[TD].452

[/TD]

[TD].450

[/TD]

[TD].902

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]DET

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]16

[/TD]

[TD]Johnny Bench

[/TD]

[TD]114

[/TD]

[TD]1980

[/TD]

[TD]1980

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]407

[/TD]

[TD]360

[/TD]

[TD]52

[/TD]

[TD]90

[/TD]

[TD]12

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]24

[/TD]

[TD]68

[/TD]

[TD]41

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD]64

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]4

[/TD]

[TD]2

[/TD]

[TD].250

[/TD]

[TD].327

[/TD]

[TD].483

[/TD]

[TD].810

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]CIN

[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]17

[/TD]

[TD]Al Lopez

[/TD]

[TD]114

[/TD]

[TD]1941

[/TD]

[TD]1941

[/TD]

[TD]32-32

[/TD]

[TD]354

[/TD]

[TD]317

[/TD]

[TD]33

[/TD]

[TD]84

[/TD]

[TD]9

[/TD]

[TD]1

[/TD]

[TD]5

[/TD]

[TD]43

[/TD]

[TD]31

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]23

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]6

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]10

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD].265

[/TD]

[TD].330

[/TD]

[TD].347

[/TD]

[TD].677

[/TD]

[TD]*2

[/TD]

[TD]PIT

[/TD]

[/TR]

</TBODY>[/TABLE]

Nine of the 41 caught 500+ games from age 32-on.

[waroriole]

Drungo is the man......must spread rep.

Were the other guys moved off C, or did they have injuries, or just fell out of baseball?

Interesting that Ramon is the most recent. Does this mean we'll have to move Wieters due to his attitude in a few years?

[OsLuvrInKy]

Drungo is the man......must spread rep.

Got him for you because you are right. It was an excellent post.

[Can_of_corn]

This is exactly what I was talking about earlier. I don't know if people were awestruck with the idea of Wieters loyalty to the franchise or forget the fact that the end of a six year extension may not look very good. Although if he picks it up offensively we could always move him to first like it looks like the Twins will do with Mauer.

Like I said earlier I would do two years FA and could be talked into three years. I don't think that is a huge risk to assume considering how hard it is to develop quality catching.

Anytime you are talking a six year deal you have to be prepared to eat year six.

[DrungoHazewood]

Anytime you are talking a six year deal you have to be prepared to eat year six.

Wouldn't it be a sliding scale? Why is the threshold at year six? I would think there was an ever-changing risk of getting little/no performance out of a guy as he ages and moves through a contract. But at the beginning I'd think there's only a marginal difference between the risk at year 5 and year 6.

[Can_of_corn]

Wouldn't it be a sliding scale? Why is the threshold at year six? I would think there was an ever-changing risk of getting little/no performance out of a guy as he ages and moves through a contract. But at the beginning I'd think there's only a marginal difference between the risk at year 5 and year 6.

I specifically mentioned year six because socalbirdfan did.

[DrungoHazewood]

Were the other guys moved off C, or did they have injuries, or just fell out of baseball?

Eight of the 41 didn't play at all from age 32-on.

Six more, including Thurmon Munson, played fewer than 100 games from 32-on.

Four changed positions, or played other positions enough to have some other position listed first in bb-ref: BJ Surhoff, Ted Simmons, Joe Torre, and Johnny Bench.

Nine guys were still basically catchers and in the majors at 32, but played between 10 and 100 games - they were either hurt or just playing part time.

Here's a telling bit: If you look at all those guys at 26 and at 32, the spread in OPS is about the same, and the median is about .760 or so. But at 32 the pool decreases by half, and the number of games played shrinks considerably. There were 19 catchers in this datacall with 140+ games played at 26, but run the same data at age 32 and only three played that many.

[markakis8]

Roberts

There isn't one person on this board that hated that signing the day he did. With the production he put up since 2005 as a leadoff hitter, it was one of the best signings that year. There was absolutely no history to go by to assume he would be injured as often as he would. It was just an unfortunate situation and I'm sure the Orioles insured themselves to recoup some of the cost.

[Can_of_corn]

There isn't one person on this board that hated that signing the day he did. With the production he put up since 2005 as a leadoff hitter, it was one of the best signings that year. There was absolutely no history to go by to assume he would be injured as often as he would. It was just an unfortunate situation and I'm sure the Orioles insured themselves to recoup some of the cost.

No one hated it but a number of folks thought it was a bad idea. It was pretty much a market deal and middle infielders do not age well.

How we thought about then is irrelevant to the fact that it was, in hindsight, a bad idea to extend that particular home grown player.

[DrungoHazewood]

Roberts

There isn't one person on this board that hated that signing the day he did. With the production he put up since 2005 as a leadoff hitter, it was one of the best signings that year. There was absolutely no history to go by to assume he would be injured as often as he would. It was just an unfortunate situation and I'm sure the Orioles insured themselves to recoup some of the cost.

Actually there was a pretty strong dissent when Roberts signed, saying it was way too much of a risk for a middle infielder who depended on defense and quickness and health through his mid-30s. I was an advocate of the deal, but there was plenty of disagreement.

But, on average, players resigned by their own teams do out-perform free agents who switch teams. It is a better risk to sign guys you have vetted by watching every day for many years.

[Mayor McCheese]

I can not believe we have actual Os fans that are against a 5+ year deal for Wieters because of age/risk...

He is a rare talent. You don't see many of these type of players in the game.

Pay that man his money..

[markakis8]

Actually there was a pretty strong dissent when Roberts signed, saying it was way too much of a risk for a middle infielder who depended on defense and quickness and health through his mid-30s. I was an advocate of the deal, but there was plenty of disagreement.

But, on average, players resigned by their own teams do out-perform free agents who switch teams. It is a better risk to sign guys you have vetted by watching every day for many years.

I just don't see how there could've been any concern after what he did for us from 2004 to 2009 when he signed the contract. I mean he had over 280 doubles and 200 SB for us in that time period. 3 different seasons of at least 50 doubles! He averaged 150+ games a year. OPS of over .800...all of this from a 2B (not many offensively productive 2B) and he was the face of the franchise with Nick Markakis (we had no idea how Adam Jones was going to turn out). It was 4 years @ $10 million a year. He's going to be 35 when his contract is up.

Just looking at it from a 2009 perspective - it's a great signing.