Roberts Trade News Thread

[Dwight Schrute]

Isn't it kind of a joke that MASN is reporting on the trade while the Orioles are denying it?

[tywright]

How about a 6-man rotation? Save our arms from injury and give some more of them major league experience

When was the last time anyone's ever had a 6 man rotation?

Our long man is going to be the 6th starter because he'll be getting enough work every 5 days.

[blueberryale77]

You're missing his point, which is a valid one. He's not taking issue with Pecota as a useful prediction tool ex ante. He's saying that one prediction that PECOTA spit out was wide of the mark, and therefore, going forward, that same particular prediction shouldn't be trusted.

PECTOA itself will likely agree: when the 2008 #'s come out in a few weeks, they will take into account Roberts' 2007 numbers, and Roberts long term projections will be revised. It wasn't unreasonable for the system to forecast worse numbers when Roberts was coming off a gruesome arm injury. But it would be unreasonable to continue to rely on that now out of date prediction that has not in fact been strongly corroborated by Roberts' performance.

BTW, results oriented thinking is not silly. It's the desire for understanding and predicting results accurately that motivates the entire statistical analysis enterprise. I think the misunderstanding between you and Blueberry is that you're misinterpreting him as critiquing PECOTA as a projection system based on one errant projection. But, as I see it, that wasn't his point at all.

Thank you, couldn't have explained it better myself.

It's way too easy to read something on a message board, see it not in the context it was intended, and get bent out of shape. I know I've been guilty of it, I've just never started my reactionary response with "you are ignorant."

BTW, it's also pretty easy to assume people on a sports message board are guys, but not all of us are. :002_scool:

[StunninSteve]

Isn't it kind of a joke that MASN is reporting on the trade while the Orioles are denying it?

Doesn't really surprise me...

BTW The Office is the best comedy on TV. Too bad there hasn't been any new episodes lately.

I keep the Michael Scott quote below as my tag...

[Jimmy Mad]

Any chance a Payton, Millar, Huff, etc. will be dealt for a couple of low-level prospects simply to open up room on the 40-man? Perhaps one of those deals needs to go down at the same time in order to make room for the Cubs/Mariners guys?

[RShack]

You're missing his point, which is a valid one. He's not taking issue with Pecota as a useful prediction tool ex ante. He's saying that one prediction that PECOTA spit out was wide of the mark, and therefore, going forward, that same particular prediction shouldn't be trusted.

PECTOA itself will likely agree: when the 2008 #'s come out in a few weeks, they will take into account Roberts' 2007 numbers, and Roberts long term projections will be revised. It wasn't unreasonable for the system to forecast worse numbers when Roberts was coming off a gruesome arm injury. But it would be unreasonable to continue to rely on that now out of date prediction that has not in fact been strongly corroborated by Roberts' performance.

BTW, results oriented thinking is not silly. It's the desire for understanding and predicting results accurately that motivates the entire statistical analysis enterprise. I think the misunderstanding between you and Blueberry is that you're misinterpreting him as critiquing PECOTA as a projection system based on one errant projection. But, as I see it, that wasn't his point at all.

Very good. Also, just an FYI: blueberryale is a she, and she drinks fruity beer. Go figure. (In an effort to keep it in perspective, I call her "blueberrybeer" ;-)

[blueberryale77]

Isn't it kind of a joke that MASN is reporting on the trade while the Orioles are denying it?

Didn't the same thing also happen with the MacPhail hiring?

[Pre-Highlanders]

Very good. Also, just an FYI: blueberryale is a she, and she drinks fruity beer. Go figure. (In an effort to keep it in perspective, I call her "blueberrybeer".)

Thanks for the reminder. I should have recalled from December's discussions of Roberts' cuteness. My apologies.

[YardBirds13]

Damn Harrisonburg cable companies for not having MASN...

It hurts the most right when the season starts, but today would be a nice day to have it, seeing as I can't enjoy the nice weather thanks to an injured ankle (don't worry, I'm only day-to-day, no need to make a roster move)

[Jimbo81]

Did you hear this report yourself or did someone tell you this?

I am sitting at home listening to MASN and hating myself for it:D

[TyCobb]

Damn Harrisonburg cable companies for not having MASN...

It hurts the most right when the season starts, but today would be a nice day to have it, seeing as I can't enjoy the nice weather thanks to an injured ankle (don't worry, I'm only day-to-day, no need to make a roster move)

Do you go to JMU?

[33rd&Ellerslie]

:002_scry: I hate this!

There are no words to describe how heartbroken I am:(

Of course I am dealing with bigger problems right now:(

Cindy, I am sorry for you. Many of us, me included, well then better to say just me and let others speak for themselves, care about our favorite athlete's performance on the field and overlook or are ignorant to anything else in their lives. You are genuine, caring, honest and seem to wear your emotions on your sleeve for all to see and share. You have clearly indicated many times that you care about Brian as an Oriole, as a member of the Baltimore community and as a person sharing space on the globe.

Brian's kindness will never be lost to the many children and fans he touched, nor will his hard work and dedication on the field be lost to the many fans who saw him play and I know you are aware of all of this.

He will be an important piece for Chicago when and if this all plays out and I think we will all be thankful if he helps his new team reach the World Series. He will still be in his early 30's when he is a FA and perhaps by then, the pieces that we aquire for him will have somehow helped us build a team that is poised to win a Championship as well and he will be back to join us for it! I think that would be awesome and I think Brian would love it as well.

[Jimbo81]

Didn't the same thing also happen with the MacPhail hiring?

I think you are correct.

[blueberryale77]

Cindy, I am sorry for you. Many of us, me included, well then better to say just me and let others speak for themselves, care about our favorite athlete's performance on the field and overlook or are ignorant to anything else in their lives. You are genuine, caring, honest and seem to wear your emotions on your sleeve for all to see and share. You have clearly indicated many times that you care about Brian as an Oriole, as a member of the Baltimore community and as a person sharing space on the globe.

Brian's kindness will never be lost to the many children and fans he touched, nor will his hard work and dedication on the field be lost to the many fans who saw him play and I know you are aware of all of this.

He will be an important piece for Chicago when and if this all plays out and I think we will all be thankful if he helps his new team reach the World Series. He will still be in his early 30's when he is a FA and perhaps by then, the pieces that we aquire for him will have somehow helped us build a team that is poised to win a Championship as well and he will be back to join us for it! I think that would be awesome and I think Brian would love it as well.

I have given out too much rep in the past 24 hours but this kind and thoughtful response demonstrates why you have already gotten 3 pips in only 174 posts. Kudos for being so considerate of your fellow posters as well as knowledgeable and rational about baseball.

[tvdoc]

I'm sure medical stuff still needs to be finalized, so I'm sure it's not FINAL, but I have word from two pretty good sources that the deal has been agreed to. I asked 100%? I was told, 100% from both....

Thanks Tony for taking the chance on putting this out to us.