Roberts Trade News Thread

[glenn__davis]

Can we difinitively conclude that the lack of Oriole plate discipline in the past is due to a poor hitting coach? Markakis seem to speak highly of Crowley.. where does the truth lie?

I used to be pretty anti-Crowley, but the fact is I've read dozens of quotes from players talking about how much he's helped them, but never heard anything negative.

About this trade, if true, I think the whole thing pretty much hinges on what you think of Cedeno. Gallagher's and Marshall's values are pretty much set right now. If you believe Cedeno will be a good fielding SS and look at his AAA success, you think this is a good deal. If you look at his struggles at the ML level and think he'll never get past this, it's a bad deal.

I think "value-wise" this trade is fair. I'm not sure if I would've made it or not. It depends on what else MacPhail has up his sleeve.

[Skeptical]

I like the blueprint that seems to be in progress.

Detroit amassed a lot of quality pitching three years ago and look at them now. I would clearly take a 120 loss season this year with a competitive team on the horizon. I also don't think we should trade any of these pitching prospects including Cabrera until they build up some value. Wait to see how everyone develops. We've watched too many pitchers go down with injuries and it would be nice to actually have some pitching depth in our organization.

Assuming the Bedard trade goes down, I would like to see Millar and Payton moved for some minor league depth and then give the young guys a chance to learn on the job. Then we can at least make a run at Teixeira next season and try to fill some of the holes in our lineup.

[NJOriolesFan]

Looking at BP's PECOTA Projections prior to 2007, Roberts was projected to have WARP-3 of 5.0 in 2008, 4.9 in 2009, 4.0 in 2010 and 3.6 in 2011. Cedeno was projected to be 3.8, 4.1, 3.9, and 3.6 respectively. However, that was prior to 2007 with Roberts having a better 2007 than 2006 the numbers could be higher. Also, Cedeno had a bad ML partial season but in Iowa he was fantastic. I don't know how that changes his numbers.

Basically, if things remained status quo, Roberts is better than Cedeno now but by the time Roberts is ready to walk, they would be equal with Cedeno being cheaper. Given that, simply adding Marshall and a very nice prospect in Gallagher does make it a good return for Roberts. It is even better if a 4th player were in it too, like Murton or Patterson or Veal. But I cant get greedy for a very good player who wouldn't be an impact player on the next Orioles winning team.

[Frobby]

Did anyone else feel Markakis plate discipline regressed in 2007 from 2006? Could it be from working with Crowley?

Not in the slightest. His BB/PA increased from .80 to .86. His P/PA went for 3.68 to 3.75. Every other important offensive number was up. Whatever Crowley is doing with Markakis is just fine.

[TinCup]

Man you sure have a way of articulating my thoughts that almost makes me redundant around here. Good job, and I obviously agree. lol

FWIW, you both realize that Cedeno is NOT the centerpice of this trade! He is only 1/3 of the return (as reported). What ALSO remains to be seen is how AM may flip someone from this trade to get other players back (either as a part of a Bedard trade or yet another trade). So, don't rush in a knee jerk fashion to judge this reported trade just yet.

[BRob51]

I don't like this trade. I was against trading him, but I atleast wanted an OF or two, like EPatt and Murton, I don't see Cedeno being our fix at SS.

[Frobby]

Here is a pretty good way to think about Cedeno.

Lou Piniella is a pretty good evaluator of talent. His resume includes a World Series with the Reds, a 116 win season with the Mariners, and last year he took a team that won 66 games in 2006 and won 85 games and a division title. I would put Lou in the same class as Leyland which is pretty close to Earl Weaver in Baltimore terms, at least at this stage of Lou's career.

Lou had Cedeno last year and instead of using him he spent him to AAA and put Ryam Theriot as SS. Theriot is not a high ceiling guy. He is considered a utility player by many. If Lou not only does not think Cedeno is as good as Theriot at SS but also believed that Cedeno, who spent all of 2006 with the Cubs, does not even belong on the team. Well, that says a whole lot.

Second point of reference, in 2006 Cedeno started the year as the starting SS for the Cubs under Dusty Bak er. However, Baker replaced him with Cesar Izturis. This the same Izturis that played for the Pirates last year and was not given a contract this winter. He was not traded. He apparently had not trade value. That shows you what Baker thought of Cedeno. Baker is an established manager league manager, who has four 90 wins seasons under his belt as well as a NL Pennant with the Giants.

Now the O's get Cedeno. They think they talent evaluation is better then Piniella and Baker. Enough said.

I know you don't like this trade but you are sounding a bit silly. Cedeno is the third piece in this transaction, not the centerpiece of the deal.

Besides, I might as well say that Brian Roberts was brought to the majors in 2001 and 2002 and the Orioles thought so little of him that they sent him back to the minors each time. Did that mean he would never be a good player?

[Fan4Life]

FWIW, you both realize that Cedeno is NOT the centerpice of this trade! He is only 1/3 of the return (as reported). What remains to be seen is how AM may flip someone from this trade to get other players back (either as a part of a Bedard trade or yet another trade). So, don't rush in a knee jerk fashion to judge this reported trade just yet.

Yes I realize it. If something else come out of it, my opinion may change. But currently, it doesn't "float my boat" so to speak.

[RShack]

I do not expect Cedeno to be the long term answer to anything for the O's other the utility IF. He is a high error infielder with major flaws in his offense from the reports I have read that include the last two seasons.

Here is a pretty good way to think about Cedeno.

Lou Piniella is a pretty good evaluator of talent. His resume includes a World Series with the Reds, a 116 win season with the Mariners, and last year he took a team that won 66 games in 2006 and won 85 games and a division title. I would put Lou in the same class as Leyland which is pretty close to Earl Weaver in Baltimore terms, at least at this stage of Lou's career.

Lou had Cedeno last year and instead of using him he spent him to AAA and put Ryam Theriot as SS. Theriot is not a high ceiling guy. He is considered a utility player by many. If Lou not only does not think Cedeno is as good as Theriot at SS but also believed that Cedeno, who spent all of 2006 with the Cubs, does not even belong on the team. Well, that says a whole lot.

Second point of reference, in 2006 Cedeno started the year as the starting SS for the Cubs under Dusty Baker. However, Baker replaced him with Cesar Izturis. This the same Izturis that played for the Pirates last year and was not given a contract this winter. He was not traded. He apparently had not trade value. That shows you what Baker thought of Cedeno. Baker is an established manager league manager, who has four 90 wins seasons under his belt as well as a NL Pennant with the Giants.

Now the O's get Cedeno. They think they talent evaluation is better then Piniella and Baker. Enough said.

I don't think this is right. I'm not saying Cedeno is gonna prove to be anything, but I think you're closing the book way too soon. AFAIK, the issue may be maturity a whole lot more than talent. I don't know if there's something about Iowa that turns him on, but he sure hit like crazy in AAA (twice), and some Cubbies folks said that his main ML problem was chasing ladies. I'm not recommending that he should get distracted chasing ML-ladies, but I can see how it could happen to somebody that's barely older than college-age. As for his D, supposedly the issue is all about throwing-E's. It appears that he has very good range, glove, and arm, and what he lacks is a brain that tells him when to just hold the dang ball instead of throwing it into the seats trying to be a super-hero. So, all-in-all, it seems like the issue is less about talent and more about growing up. Since the MacPhail family doctrine is to not tolerate a-holes, I assume that AM views the kid as a more-or-less normal story of immaturity and thinks he's worth a shot. Since he's the small-change in the deal, I figure that makes sense.

I'm not saying he's gonna hit like he did in Iowa (twice). I'm not saying that he's gonna stop making throwing-E's. I'm just saying that I don't think it's right to say he doesn't have the talent. He just might. Or not. We really don't know. Seems like a low-risk, high-ceiling add-in to me. At worst, we get an OK IF-er for a year. At best, we get a guy who can both play good-D and hit the ball hard. If it was a sure thing, he would've cost a lot more. As for Sweet Lou, I don't think he's very sweet. I think he'd just get mad, ship him back to Iowa, and never want to see his face again. I think DT is much more likely to do to a kid what Jim Brown did to Richard Pryor: Get right in his face everyday and say, "Whatcha gonna do?"

I don't know what other trades are gonna happen, but as things almost-stand at the moment, it looks to me like Cedeno should be 2B (giving him a tad more time so he doesn't have to rush his throws) while somebody else from Venezuela plays SS.

[blueberryale77]

Looking at BP's PECOTA Projections prior to 2007, Roberts was projected to have WARP-3 of 5.0 in 2008, 4.9 in 2009, 4.0 in 2010 and 3.6 in 2011. Cedeno was projected to be 3.8, 4.1, 3.9, and 3.6 respectively. However, that was prior to 2007 with Roberts having a better 2007 than 2006 the numbers could be higher. Also, Cedeno had a bad ML partial season but in Iowa he was fantastic. I don't know how that changes his numbers.

Basically, if things remained status quo, Roberts is better than Cedeno now but by the time Roberts is ready to walk, they would be equal with Cedeno being cheaper. Given that, simply adding Marshall and a very nice prospect in Gallagher does make it a good return for Roberts. It is even better if a 4th player were in it too, like Murton or Patterson or Veal. But I cant get greedy for a very good player who wouldn't be an impact player on the next Orioles winning team.

IIRC the 2006 PECOTA projections said Roberts was going to hit .264 in 2007 (based on a huge collapse rate that seemed to assume his performance the year after the major injury was going to go down just as much as it did from his career year to his injury year). Obviously what they predicted for 2007 was seriously flawed, so I wouldn't put much stock in what they predicted at that time for the years after.

[AgentOrange]

IIRC the 2006 PECOTA projections said Roberts was going to hit .264 in 2007 (based on a huge collapse rate that seemed to assume his performance the year after the major injury was going to go down just as much as it did from his career year to his injury year). Obviously what they predicted for 2007 was seriously flawed, so I wouldn't put much stock in what they predicted at that time for the years after.

So they are seriously flawed because they made 1 mistake?

They get a lot more right than wrong to be honest. If they were so flawed, no one would pay attention to them anymore.

[Baltimoron]

IIRC the 2006 PECOTA projections said Roberts was going to hit .264 in 2007 (based on a huge collapse rate that seemed to assume his performance the year after the major injury was going to go down just as much as it did from his career year to his injury year). Obviously what they predicted for 2007 was seriously flawed, so I wouldn't put much stock in what they predicted at that time for the years after.

You are ignorant and don't understand what you are commenting on, as evidenced by your comments. Please stop embarrassing yourself.

[TGO]

So they are seriously flawed because they made 1 mistake?

They get a lot more right than wrong to be honest. If they were so flawed, no one would pay attention to them anymore.

She's only talking about the projections for Roberts that were made before 2007. And she's right, those projections proved to be way off and everyone should probably ignore the projections that were made at the same time for Roberts for 2008, 09, etc.

[AgentOrange]

She's only talking about the projections for Roberts that were made before 2007. And she's right, those projections proved to be way off and everyone should probably ignore the projections that were made at the same time for Roberts for 2008, 09, etc.

Well he does get older as well. That doesn't change. I think they may get a higher rating moving forward, but it won't be some huge difference, IMO.

[Lt Melmo]

No offense to Tony, but I hope this deal turns out to be false. We should've never let Hendry back down from dealing Pie. This is FAR from equal value for one of the top 2B in the game.