The BRob Effect

[luismatos4prez]

2013 so far:

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td][/td]

[td]PA[/td]

[td]BA/OBP/SLG[/td]

[td]wRC+[/td]

[td]UZR[/td]

[td]DRS[/td]

[td]rWAR[/td]

[td]fWAR[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Brian Roberts[/td]

[td]73[/td]

[td].258/.306/.409[/td]

[td]92[/td]

[td]-1.9[/td]

[td]-5[/td]

[td]-0.3[/td]

[td]0.0[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Ryan Flaherty[/td]

[td]196[/td]

[td].217/.277/.350[/td]

[td]67[/td]

[td]5.2[/td]

[td]2[/td]

[td]0.6[/td]

[td]0.3[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Alexi Casilla[/td]

[td]96[/td]

[td].233/.277/.337[/td]

[td]63[/td]

[td]3.5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]0.5[/td]

[td]0.8[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

Interesting

[flashjordnk]

2013 so far:

[table=width: 500]

[tr]

[td][/td]

[td]PA[/td]

[td]BA/OBP/SLG[/td]

[td]wRC+[/td]

[td]UZR[/td]

[td]DRS[/td]

[td]rWAR[/td]

[td]fWAR[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Brian Roberts[/td]

[td]73[/td]

[td].258/.306/.409[/td]

[td]92[/td]

[td]-1.9[/td]

[td]-5[/td]

[td]-0.3[/td]

[td]0.0[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Ryan Flaherty[/td]

[td]196[/td]

[td].217/.277/.350[/td]

[td]67[/td]

[td]5.2[/td]

[td]2[/td]

[td]0.6[/td]

[td]0.3[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]Alexi Casilla[/td]

[td]96[/td]

[td].233/.277/.337[/td]

[td]63[/td]

[td]3.5[/td]

[td]5[/td]

[td]0.5[/td]

[td]0.8[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

Interesting

Do you really get the feeling the O's have given up 5 more runs because of Roberts defense? For that matter do you get the feeling the O's have saved 5 from Casilla's defense?

There's something that doesn't feel quite right about that. I'm not saying it's wrong, but my eye test tells me that's not the case. Though my eyes lie to me all the time.

[DrungoHazewood]

Do you really get the feeling the O's have given up 5 more runs because of Roberts defense? For that matter do you get the feeling the O's have saved 5 from Casilla's defense?

I believe that there has been a distribution of balls hit in the vicinity of the second baseman's position that resulted in something close to those run deltas. Some of those deltas are attributable to the skill levels of the various players who were there at the time, some is attributable to the particular trajectories, bounces, and the like of the balls. And some just to random stuff.

[flashjordnk]

I believe that there has been a distribution of balls hit in the vicinity of the second baseman's position that resulted in something close to those run deltas. Some of those deltas are attributable to the skill levels of the various players who were there at the time, some is attributable to the particular trajectories, bounces, and the like of the balls. And some just to random stuff.

Right that was more or less my point. Over a longer period of time those numbers would even out I would guess.

Even more bizarrely, Flaherty has a better UZR, but less run saved, over more innings? There just seems to be funky wrapped up in all of that.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Even more bizarrely, Flaherty has a better UZR, but less run saved, over more innings? There just seems to be funky wrapped up in all of that.

Not sure I understand. Flaherty has a +5.2 UZR with a +13.1/150 game rate and a +2 DRS with a +5/135 game rate (1,200 innings). Seams about right.

[El Gordo]

It's pointless using defensive metrics to compare these 3. None will have even a half season's worth of chances with which to work. You'd need to have a full season's worth to begin to get a useful measure. Using the eyeball I would say Flaherty has better range than Roberts, a stronger arm, and is much quicker on DP's, Casilla has better range than Flaherty, a lesser arm than him and is not as quick on DP's. He also seems to fall prey to concentration lapses. Roberts has more consistent AB than either Flaherty or Casilla, Flaherty has more power, Casilla hits LHP better and has more speed. Pick your poison.

[DrungoHazewood]

Right that was more or less my point. Over a longer period of time those numbers would even out I would guess.

Or they wouldn't. It's plausible that Roberts' numbers are being artifically inflated by more favorable ball distributions than to the other guys, and he's actually much worse. Although I don't think that's the most likely case just going on observation.

All we know is that given a large enough sample of data players tend towards their true talents. Unfortunately there are times when "large enough" is so big that a player's true talent can significantly change before that level is reached.

[mark_beckens]

I think Davis is a pretty mediocre 1B. But it's a pretty easy position to play, so being mediocre there simply doesn't cost a team as much as having a mediocre 2B.

Trust me, it's not that easy.

[DrungoHazewood]

Trust me, it's not that easy.

It's not sitting on your couch eating Cheetos, but its not playing SS or CF either.

[CA-ORIOLE]

It's not sitting on your couch eating Cheetos, but its not playing SS or CF either.

Yep. You think Prince Fielder would be better than minus 10 runs at any other position?

[mark_beckens]

It's not sitting on your couch eating Cheetos, but its not playing SS or CF either.

It's the easiest infield position by far. But it's not easy to play. A really good defensive first baseman can save more runs then any other position, just by saving other infielders errors. The ability to stretch and scoop bad throws isn't as easy as some make it look. And the confidence your infielders have when they know they can bounce a ball and you'll catch it, that value is not able to be measured by any metrics.

[Barnaby Graves]

A really good defensive first baseman can save more runs then any other position, just by saving other infielders errors.

I find that incredibly hard to believe.

[Valhalla]

Roberts is doing a great job and contributing positively to this team. Way better hitting and better at bats than Flaherty (who was having one of the worst seasons in Orioles history). As for fielding, he will get better.

It is awesome seeing an Oriole legend contribute in this playoff run though.

[mark_beckens]

I find that incredibly hard to believe.

I wish I had some hard stats to back that opinion up. A really good first baseman will scoop almost all bad throws. Think Keith Hernandez where others with catch the easier ones, short hops and long hops while missing several inbetween hops which is the most difficult to scoop. Davis has been really good so far. I've been impressed. He's no where close to GG caliber but he's not the butcher he was made out to be before the season started.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I wish I had some hard stats to back that opinion up. A really good first baseman will scoop almost all bad throws. Think Keith Hernandez where others with catch the easier ones, short hops and long hops while missing several inbetween hops which is the most difficult to scoop. Davis has been really good so far. I've been impressed. He's no where close to GG caliber but he's not the butcher he was made out to be before the season started.

Pretty sure DRS includes them in GFP's. I believe most of the studies show that range accounts for 80% of a first baseman's value. Some guys are certainly better at scooping balls than others, but I doubt it factors into anything significant in the vast majority of cases.

I agree with you about Davis looking better on the scoops than last year.