The BRob Effect

[DrungoHazewood]

A really good defensive first baseman can save more runs then any other position, just by saving other infielders errors.

I find that incredibly hard to believe.

Because it's not true. I've seen studies that indicate almost all first basemen are in the +/-5 run range when it comes to scooping.

[mark_beckens]

Because it's not true. I've seen studies that indicate almost all first basemen are in the +/-5 run range when it comes to scooping.

Can you share them? I'd like to see the difference between a first baseman who's really good at scooping and one who isn't. I'd think the difference over a entire season would be 10-15 errors saved atleast.

[Frobby]

Can you share them? I'd like to see the difference between a first baseman who's really good at scooping and one who isn't. I'd think the difference over a entire season would be 10-15 errors saved atleast.

It isn't. Just google scoop percentage first base and you'll have numerous articles on the subject.

[mark_beckens]

It isn't. Just google scoop percentage first base and you'll have numerous articles on the subject.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/first_baseman_scoops/

Scoop Runs Saved Leaders (2011)

First Baseman

Scoops

Mishandled

Throws

Scoop

Percentage

Scoop Runs

Saved

Aubrey Huff

24

1

96%

2.1

Casey Kotchman

26

2

93%

2.1

Adrian Gonzalez

27

2

93%

1.7

Gaby Sanchez

25

2

93%

1.4

Daric Barton

27

3

90%

1.4

[CA-ORIOLE]

http://www.billjamesonline.com/first_baseman_scoops/

So, I get from that the rate is between 70% - 96% (worst to best) with an approx range of 9-12 "saved errors" or somewhere around 4-7 runs. Pretty close to Drungo's run estimate and your error estimate. I guess that could vary more with some really bad infielders.

[mark_beckens]

So, I get from that the rate is between 70% - 96% (worst to best) with an approx range of 9-12 "saved errors" or somewhere around 4-7 runs. Pretty close to Drungo's run estimate and your error estimate. I guess that could vary more with some really bad infielders.

I'm not as big on these sabermetrics as some of you. So I have to ask. If a first baseman can save 4-7 runs on his ability to scoop throws. Is that the same as adding dwar or whatever it's called of 4-7? That would also mean someone really good at scooping could save each of his infielders 3-4 errors per year?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm not as big on these sabermetrics as some of you. So I have to ask. If a first baseman can save 4-7 runs on his ability to scoop throws. Is that the same as adding dwar or whatever it's called of 4-7?

Changes a little bit from year to year, but 10 runs is approximately 1 win. So basically the difference between the best scooper and the worst scooper is about 0.4 to 0.7 wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

Can you share them? I'd like to see the difference between a first baseman who's really good at scooping and one who isn't. I'd think the difference over a entire season would be 10-15 errors saved atleast.

As CA-Oriole alluded, a typical error by a first baseman is probably worth 1/3 of a run, give-or-take, so 10 or 15 errors would be 3-5 runs. Or a fraction of one win.

[flashjordnk]

Hey let's get back on topic here. The Orioles are what, 11-7 in the 18 games since BRob has returned now? Winning 8 of their last 9.

Please, ignore his 286/364/500 slash line during the time as well. That's had nothing to do with the winning streak.

[Can_of_corn]

Hey let's get back on topic here. The Orioles are what, 11-7 in the 18 games since BRob has returned now? Winning 8 of their last 9.

Please, ignore his 286/364/500 slash line during the time as well. That's had nothing to do with the winning streak.

I am sure Brian's triumphant return has inspired the stating pitching into not sucking.

[flashjordnk]

I am sure Brian's triumphant return has inspired the stating pitching into not sucking.

I would not put that past Brian. If Brian has control over all the things that Webbrick seems to think he does, the logic is there.

[Frobby]

Hey let's get back on topic here. The Orioles are what, 11-7 in the 18 games since BRob has returned now? Winning 8 of their last 9.

Please, ignore his 286/364/500 slash line during the time as well. That's had nothing to do with the winning streak.

I am sure Brian's triumphant return has inspired the stating pitching into not sucking.

I think both Brian's supporters and his detractors should just turn down the rhetoric a bit and see what happens. It's not enough of a sample to mean much.

It's just my personal observation and opinion, but I think Brian has looked very good at the plate the last couple of weeks. Last night he was 0 for 2 with a walk and a sac fly. The sac fly was hit to the deepest part of the ballpark, and he hit another ball very hard to the alley that was caught. Overall, he seems able to drive the ball in a way he couldn't do last year. He is doing well enough that I expect Buck to keep putting him out there.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think both Brian's supporters and his detractors should just turn down the rhetoric a bit and see what happens. It's not enough of a sample to mean much.

It's just my personal observation and opinion, but I think Brian has looked very good at the plate the last couple of weeks. Last night he was 0 for 2 with a walk and a sac fly. The sac fly was hit to the deepest part of the ballpark, and he hit another ball very hard to the alley that was caught. Overall, he seems able to drive the ball in a way he couldn't do last year. He is doing well enough that I expect Buck to keep putting him out there.

Definitely agree with this observation.

[CA-ORIOLE]

As CA-Oriole alluded, a typical error by a first baseman is probably worth 1/3 of a run, give-or-take, so 10 or 15 errors would be 3-5 runs. Or a fraction of one win.

I'm probably nitpicking here, but 1/3 seems a little low. That's basically the value of a walk. I was figuring somewhere between the value of a walk and a single, or about .4 runs.

[Tony-OH]

I think both Brian's supporters and his detractors should just turn down the rhetoric a bit and see what happens. It's not enough of a sample to mean much.

It's just my personal observation and opinion, but I think Brian has looked very good at the plate the last couple of weeks. Last night he was 0 for 2 with a walk and a sac fly. The sac fly was hit to the deepest part of the ballpark, and he hit another ball very hard to the alley that was caught. Overall, he seems able to drive the ball in a way he couldn't do last year. He is doing well enough that I expect Buck to keep putting him out there.

I agree with this. Roberts has been contributing and doing a nice job overall, especially at the plate. He's had some productive ABs even when not getting hits. He's shown he can play effectively overall, even if his defense is below average at this point in his career. If he can stay healthy and maintain his current production levels, he'll contribute down the stretch.