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Overrated = Brian Roberts?


Pruke

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Uh oh - this should be an interesting thread.

I was casually reading through a Rob Neyer perspective on the best second basemen and he evaluated them using a variety of stats, but finalized on WARP values.

Here's what he came up with:

Player Age OBP SLG OPS+ WARP

Chase Utley 29 .410 .566 145 9.3

Robinson Cano 25 .353 .488 120 9.2

Kelly Johnson 26 .375 .457 117 6.7

Dustin Pedroia 24 .380 .442 112 5.3

Ian Kinsler 26 .355 .441 109 5.4

Howie Kendrick 24 .347 .450 108 2.0

Dan Uggla 28 .326 .479 108 7.9

Rickie Weeks 25 .374 .433 108 3.5

Brandon Phillips 27 .331 .485 105 7.6

The one caveat is that he dismissed anyone 30+ in age.

With this in mind, and taking into account our collective love and respect for a homegrown kid with heart and guts, have we overrated Brian and are expecting too much in return on a trade?

Let loose...

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=neyer_rob

for subscribers...

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Gotta tell you, from that list the only one I would pick ahead of Roberts is Utley. Not fond of many of the others. Pedroia is going to be very good and if I had a long term view he would be up there also but not so much the other guys. They do have strong value but I would prefer Utley, Roberts, Pedroia in that order.

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Are you kidding?:rolleyes:

Do you mean My Perfect One?:eek: How could he ever be overated?:P

GEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZ, Cindy!

I think you know nobody can effecively assess Roberts with your undying love for him being ominpresent!

I love Brian - I think everyone on the board does. I just wonder if we're putting him so high on a pedestal because of what he means to Baltimore - versus accurately assessing what he means to another contending team to get a fair trade accomplished.

My guess is that we're not - because of what he does for the community.

This is a question, I would like to throw your way.

If Brian, I know you love him dearly, wants to win and play for a contender as you would expect anyone with his blood would - would you NOT want to accommodate that request while he still had a chance to perform at a high level?

The 2008 Orioles are going to suck - sorry, but suck is a fair word for them, that's part of rebuilding.

That doesn't mean we should drag Brian through the mud in the meanwhile.

Would you agree?

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To be fair - he did say he did not account for 30+ 2B men.

Robrets had a great year - his trade value will likely not be higher.

However, if you're the Cubs, for example, can you really afford to sell the farm for X years more of performance at that level?

Define X - I'd say it's 2, max. Nothing against Brian, just assuming he's not doing his best Barry Bonds impersonation.

I love Roberts - I love his performance - I don't know if he fits into the new equation (ie: youth)

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He's an above-average second baseman.

Utley's obviously the best of the lot. Cano and Pedroia will be very good for a long time, likely. Uggla has pop and plays good defense. I'm waiting to decide on Phillips, but...

...anyone who would, w/o a second thought, choose B-Rob over any of them is being a little quick on the trigger, I think.

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GEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZ, Cindy!

I think you know nobody can effecively assess Roberts with your undying love for him being ominpresent!

I love Brian - I think everyone on the board does. I just wonder if we're putting him so high on a pedestal because of what he means to Baltimore - versus accurately assessing what he means to another contending team to get a fair trade accomplished.

My guess is that we're not - because of what he does for the community.

This is a question, I would like to throw your way.

If Brian, I know you love him dearly, wants to win and play for a contender as you would expect anyone with his blood would - would you NOT want to accommodate that request while he still had a chance to perform at a high level?

The 2008 Orioles are going to suck - sorry, but suck is a fair word for them, that's part of rebuilding.

That doesn't mean we should drag Brian through the mud in the meanwhile.

Would you agree?

:002_scry: Its hard for me to look at it that way.I have lost too many people I love in such a short time.

Im just being honest.

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I was casually reading through a Rob Neyer perspective on the best second basemen and he evaluated them using a variety of stats, but finalized on WARP values.

Here's what he came up with:

Player Age OBP SLG OPS+ WARP

Chase Utley 29 .410 .566 145 9.3

Robinson Cano 25 .353 .488 120 9.2

Kelly Johnson 26 .375 .457 117 6.7

Dustin Pedroia 24 .380 .442 112 5.3

Ian Kinsler 26 .355 .441 109 5.4

Howie Kendrick 24 .347 .450 108 2.0

Dan Uggla 28 .326 .479 108 7.9

Rickie Weeks 25 .374 .433 108 3.5

Brandon Phillips 27 .331 .485 105 7.6

The one caveat is that he dismissed anyone 30+ in age.

Huge caveat, since Roberts had a WARP of 7.1 last year. (The numbers above are WARP, not WARP3.) By that criterion he'd be 5th on this list.

I don't think we overrate Roberts. Nobody has said he's a superstar. But he is an upper echelon 2B. For a team that is in contention and wants to upgrade that spot, he's a great option.

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He's an above-average second baseman.

Utley's obviously the best of the lot. Cano and Pedroia will be very good for a long time, likely. Uggla has pop and plays good defense. I'm waiting to decide on Phillips, but...

...anyone who would, w/o a second thought, choose B-Rob over any of them is being a little quick on the trigger, I think.

FWIW Uggla is a horrible defender while Phillips is a very good one

Phillips #2 2b, Uggla one of the more not so goods

<img src="http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders1-07.gif">

Yay Phillips, boo Uggla

2007 UZR = Uggla 2nd worst 2B

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I don't think we overrate Roberts. Nobody has said he's a superstar. But he is an upper echelon 2B. For a team that is in contention and wants to upgrade that spot, he's a great option.

That would be my take. He's 3rd in VORP among 2nd basemen for 2007. He's 2nd to Utley in Eqa and RARP He's also 2nd to Utley in Win Shares (13th in fielding Win Shares in 2007 and 23rd in 2006). He's 4th in OBP and 15th in SLG among 2nd baseman, but he's 1st in steals among 2nd basemen by a wide margin with an 88% success rate and 4th among lead off hitters in OBP, which makes him one of the premier lead off hitters in the game in my book. He's not the best fielding 2nd baseman around by a wide margin, but he is 7th on the +/- list for 2005-2007, so he's not chopped liver on defense either. I'd take him over anything the Cardinals have had since Placido Polanco.

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According to the UZR you cite:

2B

Best

NL

Utley +16

Hudson +15

Giles +6

AL

Ellis +25

Cano +15

Hill +14

Worst

NL

Kent -23

Uggla -17

Johnson -13

AL

Kinsler -9

Barfield -7

Roberts -4

Every defensive stat has holes. No way Roberts is one of the worst 3 defensive 2B in the AL.

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