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Could we afford to keep these nine players through 2017?

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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isestrex Hangout Grand Counsel

isestrex

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All of these numbers are intended to be a little on the low side. If we can't afford these suggested numbers, we obviously can't afford more, and need to think about who we'd jettison.

Jones 13-13-16-16

Machado .5-.6-5.5-8

Davis 10-14-17-17

Wieters 7.5-10-13-13

Markakis 15-12-10-10

Hardy 7.5-12.5-12.5-12.5

Tillman .6-3.5-6.5-9.5

Gonzalez .6-3-6-8.5

Chen 4.1-4.8-10-10

2014: $58.8 mm

2015: $73.4 mm

2016: $96.5 mm

2017: $103.5 mm

Anybody think those numbers are higher than it would take to retain these 9 players? Obviously, they assume we continue to get solid performances from the three pitchers.

Bottom line, we'd probably have to take the payroll to $150 mm or higher by 2017 to keep all nine of these guys and fill the other 16 slots. But I don't know that it would be impossible for that to happen. $150 mm might be an average MLB payroll in four years as the full effect of the $27 mm in TV money gets factored into player salaries.

Good stuff and well laid out as usual, Frobby.

Personally, I'd say Wieters and Markakis should get the ax. I also wouldn't extend Hardy if it were for more than AA $10M. Rather than fix him, I'll assume he just declines the offer and signs elsewhere.

That leaves:

Jones 13-13-16-16

Machado .5-.6-5.5-8

Davis 10-14-17-17 (I predict he gets signed to an extension)

Tillman .6-3.5-6.5-9.5

Gonzalez .6-3-6-8.5 (I think that's a little high for what Gonzo will actually produce - thus make in arb - but I'll stick with these numbers for simplicity)

Chen 4.1-4.8-10-10

2014: $28.8 mm

2015: $38.8 mm

2016: $61 mm

2017: $69 mm

Under my scenario, I think we could definitely keep those players through 2017.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Revising the OP to expand it to ten players, including Jiminez. I'm excluding his deferred comp here, though it's not clear when that has to be paid.

All of these numbers are intended to be a little on the low side. If we can't afford these suggested numbers, we obviously can't afford more, and need to think about who we'd jettison.

Jones 13-13-16-16

Machado .5-.6-5.5-8

Davis 10-14-17-17

Wieters 7.5-10-13-13

Markakis 15-12-10-10

Hardy 7.5-12.5-12.5-12.5

Tillman .6-3.5-6.5-9.5

Gonzalez .6-3-6-8.5

Chen 4.1-4.8-10-10

Jiminez 9-10-10.75-11.50

2014: $67.8 mm

2015: $83.4 mm

2016: $107.25 mm

2017: $115.0 mm

Anybody think those numbers are higher than it would take to retain these 10 players? Obviously, they assume we continue to get solid performances from the three pitchers.

Bottom line, we'd probably have to take the payroll to $160 mm or higher by 2017 to keep all nine of these guys and fill the other 16 slots. But I don't know that it would be impossible for that to happen. $150 mm might be an average MLB payroll in four years as the full effect of the $27 mm in TV money gets factored into player salaries.

I do think it is likely we'll see average payrolls increase by $5-10 mm a year over the next 3 years, but I am now coming around to the view that we couldn't keep these ten players and have a payroll PA will live with.

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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Revising the OP to expand it to ten players, including Jiminez. I'm excluding his deferred comp here, though it's not clear when that has to be paid.

I do think it is likely we'll see average payrolls increase by $5-10 mm a year over the next 3 years, but I am now coming around to the view that we couldn't keep these ten players and have a payroll PA will live with.

I think that there is a greater possibility that we spend money if we are winning pennants. I do not think I would spend to keep all 10 of these players. Unless Weiters really shows something different, I do nothing he will be worth what Boras will ask. He gone. I would also pass on Hardy and and Chen.

I also think that Davis and Machado will be offered longtime term commitments. I take Davis at his word that he would like to stay and waiting on Manny in my opinion, means he like Weiters will be gone at the first chance.

Someone said that we would have a better chance of keeping these guys if we did poorly. Unfortunately the converse is also true, if we win the Al East the next two years, your numbers are going to be real low.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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All of these numbers are intended to be a little on the low side. If we can't afford these suggested numbers, we obviously can't afford more, and need to think about who we'd jettison.

Jones 13-13-16-16

Machado .5-.6-5.5-8

Davis 10-14-17-17

Wieters 7.5-10-13-13

Markakis 15-12-10-10

Hardy 7.5-12.5-12.5-12.5

Tillman .6-3.5-6.5-9.5

Gonzalez .6-3-6-8.5

Chen 4.1-4.8-10-10

2014: $58.8 mm

2015: $73.4 mm

2016: $96.5 mm

2017: $103.5 mm

Anybody think those numbers are higher than it would take to retain these 9 players? Obviously, they assume we continue to get solid performances from the three pitchers.

Bottom line, we'd probably have to take the payroll to $150 mm or higher by 2017 to keep all nine of these guys and fill the other 16 slots. But I don't know that it would be impossible for that to happen. $150 mm might be an average MLB payroll in four years as the full effect of the $27 mm in TV money gets factored into player salaries.

Thought this might be interesting to revisit. My estimates of what these players would be making in 2015 (the second year shown above) weren't too bad -- a bit high on Wieters ($8.3 mm), Davis ($12 mm) and Hardy ($11.5 mm), and a tad low on Tillman ($4.3 mm) and Gonzo ($3.3 mm). Jones, Machado and Chen were more or less fixed, and Markakis is no longer relevant (though my estimate of what he'd make in 2015-17 wasn't far off the mark).

The thread was started before we acquired Ubaldo and committed to him for 4 years. If I subbed him in for Markakis, and reworked the proposed numbers to fit what's happened and some changes in the market, it looks more like this (2015-17):

Jones 13-16-16

Machado .6-5.5-8

Davis 12-14-14

Wieters 8.3-15-15

Hardy 11.5-12.5-14

Tillman 4.3-7.5-10

Gonzalez 3.3-6-8.5

Chen 4.8-12.5-12.5

Jimenez 12.3-13-13.5

2015: $77.8 mm

2016: $102.0 mm

2017: $111.5

My guess is those 2016-17 numbers are conservative. My bottom line is the same: we're looking at a $150 mm payroll by 2017, maybe closer to $155 mm, in order to keep these players. My guess is we attempt to keep Wieters, but let Chen and Davis go.

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33rdst All-Star

33rdst

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Yeah, I agree that Davis is likely gone. I'm not sure he will produce enough to justify those dollars. Chen is going to be tough to see go. The numbers for Wieters look high. I'm guessing you're looking at a four year contract? Still, he's a big catcher with health issues. Also I could see DD trying to extend Tillman and Machado. That could help payroll in the short term.

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