Don't Look Now but Joseph Might be a Better a Catcher for the Orioles...

[Redskins Rick]

I am not saying that Joseph is going to be the next Rick Dempsey...I am stating that he doesn't have to hit all that well to be an adequate catcher for a winning team. .664 OPS isn't all that great but the O's had some outstanding seasons with him playing catcher most games.

Very True.

But, in all fairness, here in OH, there was lots of posters that was down on Matt, when his OPS was barely above .700.

My own opinion.

I would rather have a strong defensive catcher calling a good call and managing the field with a weak bat.

Than a weak catcher with strong bat, and that doesn't call a good game, can't stop the runners from advancing.

[MurphDogg]

I am not saying that Joseph is going to be the next Rick Dempsey...I am stating that he doesn't have to hit all that well to be an adequate catcher for a winning team. .664 OPS isn't all that great but the O's had some outstanding seasons with him playing catcher most games.

Sure and the '27 Yankees could have won the World Series with me behind the dish. But it doesn't mean it is optimal. In Dempsey's prime with the Orioles, he had an OPS+ of around 93 (OPS+ is not adjusted for position but is adjusted for ballpark and era). a OPS+ of 93 is about .700 today (Caleb is at .688 OPS and an OPS+ of 88). I just can't see Caleb Joseph hitting at the level where he is not an offensive burden to the team. While he is making the minimum he could be a decent backup option, but he was in AA for four years for a reason. 25 catchers have made at least 250 plate appearances this year and 20 of them have a higher OPS+ than Joseph. We shouldn't seek to have players in the bottom quartile in offensive production for their position.

[MurphDogg]

Very True.

But, in all fairness, here in OH, there was lots of posters that was down on Matt, when his OPS was barely above .700.

My own opinion.

I would rather have a strong defensive catcher calling a good call and managing the field with a weak bat.

Than a weak catcher with strong bat, and that doesn't call a good game, can't stop the runners from advancing.

But I thought Joseph stayed in Bowie for four years because he wasn't a good defensive catcher. (Also he didn't hit much). How likely is it that he is an above average defensive catcher at this point?

[CA-ORIOLE]

But I thought Joseph stayed in Bowie for four years because he wasn't a good defensive catcher. (Also he didn't hit much). How likely is it that he is an above average defensive catcher at this point?

Forget the stats that say he is (well above average in fact). Does it look like he is? Does his technique and footwork look good? Does he look better than Hundley who has had a rather long career at this point? Will he be good even if his CS rate lowers? If his past issues were largely technique, why would he precipitously decline? Also, you understand the pitchers openly prefer this guy over Hundley (who I actually like) and who was considered a pretty decent defensive catcher in SD.

I will say another thing about Joseph that stands out to me. I have heard this guy 3 times now in interviews (some of it prompted I guess) talk about how he "works on his pitch framing". The last time he even went into into detail about the pitchers, specific pitches, and how would prepare to catch and frame specific pitches in specific locations in advance. I have never head a conversation like that before. Some people poo poo pitch framing and pitch framing stats and I actually have no idea what Joseph's numbers look like right now but I do think it is something that is gaining traction.

Al in all, I just think there are a lot of little things adding up in Joseph's favor to be sticking around the league for awhile. Albeit, maybe in a limited role.

[MurphDogg]

Forget the stats that say he is (well above average in fact). Does it look like he is? Does his technique and footwork look good? Does he look better than Hundley who has had a rather long career at this point? Will he be good even if his CS rate lowers? If his past issues were largely technique, why would he precipitously decline? Also, you understand the pitchers openly prefer this guy over Hundley (who I actually like) and who was considered a pretty decent defensive catcher in SD.

I'm not a scout but the scouts say no. I can't find a single scouting report that suggests he has the ability to play catcher serviceably at the Major League level. If you find one I would love to see it. Maybe he made a huge leap this year but I haven't read anything from any scouts to support that. I have seen anecdotal evidence based on the staff's ERA when he is catching and a few quotes by teammates. Oh, and his CS% is good. Teammates are always going to support one another, especially when they are winning. His passed ball rate is high but his wild pitch rate is low. It just doesn't seem likely to me that a player makes a turnaround like that on a dime.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I'm not a scout but the scouts say no. I can't find a single scouting report that suggests he has the ability to play catcher serviceably at the Major League level. If you find one I would love to see it. Maybe he made a huge leap this year but I haven't read anything from any scouts to support that. I have seen anecdotal evidence based on the staff's ERA when he is catching and a few quotes by teammates. Oh, and his CS% is good. Teammates are always going to support one another, especially when they are winning. His passed ball rate is high but his wild pitch rate is low. It just doesn't seem likely to me that a player makes a turnaround like that on a dime.

I'm not really sure what your point is. We all know this. Tony has said this many times. Past scouting reports aren't going to shed light on what we're seeing right now, objectively and subjectively. Tony has said he's much improved. Dempsey has lauded him. There's been a fangraphs article already on his pitch framing/defense. He's improved. Largely with hard work I guess. I don't think his poor scouting report were from physical ability.

I don't think he'll retain a 50% CS rate. I think his DRS numbers will decline, but why do you think he'll precipitously decline to below average or something resembling past poor scouting reports at this point? I remember scouting reports saying that Flaherty would be below average second baseman. Stuff changes.

[AlbionHero]

Even if you haven't factored in the injury, I think Wieters value has really gone down this season when the pitching staff did a 180 after he stopped catching.

[MurphDogg]

I'm not really sure what your point is. We all know this. Tony has said this many times. Past scouting reports aren't going to shed light on what we're seeing right now, objectively and subjectively. Tony has said he's much improved. Dempsey has lauded him. There's been a fangraphs article already on his pitch framing/defense. He's improved. Largely with hard work I guess. I don't think his poor scouting report were from physical ability.

I don't think he'll retain a 50% CS rate. I think his DRS numbers will decline, but why do you think he'll precipitously decline to below average or something resembling past poor scouting reports at this point? I remember scouting reports saying that Flaherty would be below average second baseman. Stuff changes.

Rick Dempsey thinks an Orioles player is solid? Well knock me over with a feather. Tony says he's much improved? I would be interested to read this. No his poor scouting reports up to and through Spring training of this year were based on poor footwork and pitch blocking. I'm not sure that 42 games is a large enough sample to overcome those scouting reports. If presented with 42 games of defensive stats or five years of scouting reports, I am going to favor the scouting reports. Not saying it is impossible that he has made a marked improvement in three months at the age of 28 that he couldn't make in 5 years as a younger player, just that it is the less likely scenario. Do you have a link to that Fangraphs article? Quick Google search didn't uncover it and there is no link to it on his Fangraphs page.

[terps19]

Roch said on 105.7 this morning. A while back somebody asked in the organization, why Caleb was jumping around so much, they said, he had a good bat, but his catcher skills was suspect.

The Oriole official, who Roch declined to name, said, this is a development league, so lets get him back behind the plate and develop him.

He had a monster year in AA ball with 22 Hrs and 97 RBI and an OPS of .840. Good for a catcher. So yeah I can see the good bat.

[terps19]

Trade Wieters. Joseph is the future and the present.

Doh

[CA-ORIOLE]

Rick Dempsey thinks an Orioles player is solid? Well knock me over with a feather. Tony says he's much improved? I would be interested to read this. No his poor scouting reports up to and through Spring training of this year were based on poor footwork and pitch blocking. I'm not sure that 42 games is a large enough sample to overcome those scouting reports. If presented with 42 games of defensive stats or five years of scouting reports, I am going to favor the scouting reports. Not saying it is impossible that he has made a marked improvement in three months at the age of 28 that he couldn't make in 5 years as a younger player, just that it is the less likely scenario. Do you have a link to that Fangraphs article? Quick Google search didn't uncover it and there is no link to it on his Fangraphs page.

Maybe Tony or stotle could do a current scouting report on him. I guess your point is you don't believe what you're seeing, others are saying, along with the data, and that a current ML scouting report would likely consider him below average. I respect that and thanks for clarifying. I'd have to disagree with you on it though.

BTW Dempsey has ripped Wieters defense in the past.

[MurphDogg]

Maybe Tony or stotle could do a current scouting report on him. I guess your point is you don't believe what you're seeing, others are saying, along with the data, and that a current ML scouting report would likely consider him below average. I respect that and thanks for clarifying. I'd have to disagree with you on it though.

BTW Dempsey has ripped Wieters defense in the past.

I want to see this list of what others are saying, that could certainly persuade me. So far I haven't seen that. Rick Dempsey has no credibility in objectively analyzing Orioles players. As far as 42 games worth of defensive statistics at catcher, yes, barring corresponding scouting reports, I am willing to completely disregard them. Defensive stats are not perfect and prone to small sample size issues. And defensive stats for catchers are behind those at every other position in terms of reliability over time.

I just don't know of a player that was looked at as a defensive liability for his entire minor league career to the point that nobody thought he could be a big league catcher who then became an above average defensive big league catcher. It seems fantastical to me. And Joseph would need to be well above average behind the dish to start with his bat.

[AlbionHero]

Do you have a link to that Fangraphs article? Quick Google search didn't uncover it and there is no link to it on his Fangraphs page.

Not Fangraphs, but its full of sabermetric talk so it might be what he was talking about.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2014/08/caleb-joseph-is-all-star.html

Basically, counting pitch framing he's a top tier catcher in the league this year.

[MurphDogg]

Not Fangraphs, but its full of sabermetric talk so it might be what he was talking about.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2014/08/caleb-joseph-is-all-star.html

Basically, counting pitch framing he's a top tier catcher in the league this year.

It is taking 42 games worth of stats and extrapolating it out to an entire season. That doesn't really move the needle for me. Those stats would make him by far the best catcher in the entire league at pitch framing, 18 percent better than Jose Molina based on Baseball Prospectus's numbers. I'm not buying that he went from being a below average minor league catcher with no chance at being a big league catcher to being by far the best defensive catcher in the majors in less than 6 months. Sorry.

[Ripken]

I'm seeing what I'm seeing. If a guy with a mediocre MiLB bat comes up and OPSs 1.000 in the Majors for two months no one will expect his numbers to continue. On the other hand, if a guy comes up and is blazing fast then he's blazing fast. While defense is somewhere in the middle of those, and while I don't care much about defensive metrics, Joseph has blocked well, thrown well, and by many accounts called and received well. I'm not sure what isn't to be believed about that. He won't throw out 50% forever but it seems quite clear he throws well. He wasn't a good catcher and now he is one. He worked his butt off at the craft and seems to have become very good at it. 28 or not I think he could be a good MLB catcher for years to come.