Should the O'S bring back Alejandro De Aza?

[Mayor McCheese]

I can't think of a single example where someone posted a 6 WAR season and then wasn't handed the starting job out of spring training the next year. Is there any precedent?

Peter Bourjos 2011 WAR 5.05

The only thing close was Peter Bourjos in 2012. Although he started the year he did end up losing his starting job to Trout.

[AlbionHero]

Peter Bourjos 2011 WAR 5.05

The only thing close was Peter Bourjos in 2012. Although he started the year he did end up losing his starting job to Trout.

Well if we had the top prospect in baseball waiting in the wings and Pearce struggled and lost his job, that would be one thing. But his competition is a 30 year old guy who is a non-tender candidate, so I don't think he has anything to worry about.

[Frobby]

De Aza's "slow" bats was pretty productive in the postseason with an 867 OPS. If only the O's would have had more slow bats like that.

Yeah, let's make long-term decisions based on 7 games worth of data. That's an excellent approach!

[25 Nuggets]

Yeah, let's make long-term decisions based on 7 games worth of data. That's an excellent approach!

Madison Bumgarner baby

[wildcard]

Yeah, let's make long-term decisions based on 7 games worth of data. That's an excellent approach!

Aaaa, who are you talking about. Where did I make a long term decision on 7 at bats? Read the posts and know what the heck you are talking about. I said his 867 OPS didn't indicate that he did poorly in the playoffs. I also said that I can see De Aza as a platoon leftfield. That is based on his production over the last three seasons.

You are usually better than this. Having a bad day?

[wildcard]

I can see Pearce being projected getting 500 at bats. With his injury history I have a hard time projecting him for 600 ABs. However, if Pearce hits like he did last year he will be hard to keep out of the lineup.

I think its too early to project where Pearce gets his at bats until we know whether Markakis and/or Cruz are returning. Pearce can play well at several positions.

[MdSooner]

It boils down to this: Lough made a lousy impression his first month on the job (at the plate, anyway), while de Aza made a great one. And people have a hard time changing their first impressions.

This is / was my feeling as well

[Frobby]

What does a player have to do to earn an everyday starting position if having a 6 WAR season isn't enough...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2014-batting-leaders.shtml

the dude was the 9th best WAR in the AL last year, and easily best on the team.

While Pearce had an excellent year, this is one of those cases where WAR seems to grossly overstate his value. I don't see how a .930 OPS with 21 HR, 49 RBI leads to an equivalent WAR total to Chris Davis' 1.004 OPS with 53 HR and 138 RBI in 2013 (6.1 WAR). I think Pearce was a solid defender both in the OF and at 1B, but I don't see how he gets 1.5 dWAR.

That said, I think Pearce will be somewhere in the lineup just about every day until he proves he can't repeat what he did in 2014.

[MdSooner]

Take whatever precautions you need to. But he starts every day until you need the fallback.

But where will Pearce play every day?

Davis at first

De Aza / Lough at left field

Markakis in right field

[Ohfan67]

While Pearce had an excellent year, this is one of those cases where WAR seems to grossly overstate his value. I don't see how a .930 OPS with 21 HR, 49 RBI leads to an equivalent WAR total to Chris Davis' 1.004 OPS with 53 HR and 138 RBI in 2013 (6.1 WAR). I think Pearce was a solid defender both in the OF and at 1B, but I don't see how he gets 1.5 dWAR.

That said, I think Pearce will be somewhere in the lineup just about every day until he proves he can't repeat what he did in 2014.

WAR stinks and very few fans seem to notice. But I digress.

Back to Pearce...It's scary to count on him next year IMO. He's a total outlier and, consequently, impossible to predict. What a wacky (and fun) career! I hope he has another fantastic year and earns some serious cash in the future, but I could just as easily imagine him being mediocre and not getting much playing time unless there's an injury.

[Number5]

While Pearce had an excellent year, this is one of those cases where WAR seems to grossly overstate his value. I don't see how a .930 OPS with 21 HR, 49 RBI leads to an equivalent WAR total to Chris Davis' 1.004 OPS with 53 HR and 138 RBI in 2013 (6.1 WAR). I think Pearce was a solid defender both in the OF and at 1B, but I don't see how he gets 1.5 dWAR.

That said, I think Pearce will be somewhere in the lineup just about every day until he proves he can't repeat what he did in 2014.

:agree:

I think dWAR leaves a lot to be desired at both OF and 1B. I believe the advanced metrics, and what they focus on, apply very well to the 2B, SS, and 3B positions, but pretty much suck everywhere else (except maybe pitcher.)

Despite efforts to adjust the defensive matrices, outfield still seems to have too much of a variance from field to field. Players that play their home games in certain stadiums seem to have an artificially high dWAR, while those that play in certain other stadiums seem to have an artificially low one. I don't know why, but it appears to be a flaw that still needs to be addressed. My guess is that outfielders that play more games in smaller outfields with smaller power alleys, have less chances to make the long running catch, or throw someone out because less runners are running to third or home on balls hit certain ways. Less opportunity to excel and post stats, if you will. The matrices have improved, with less undeserved penalties being charged players in certain parks on wall balls and the like, but the fact is that they are still penalized because they have one less successful play than they would have had on the same ball in another park. ( 0 for 0 vs. 1 for 1.) Over the course of the season, the more chances successfully fielded by outfielders playing in parks that the play was possible in vs. the zeroes both in chances and successful chances for the player in the smaller park add up. Likewise, fewer chances for an outfielder on a team with a pitching staff that consists of predominantly ground-ball pitchers has an affect. These factors also result in each misplay in effect costing an outfielder receiving less chances through no fault of his own more than the same misplay would cost an outfielder that happens to be receiving more chances due to park and other independent factors.

First base, in particular is a position where the single most important attribute of a good first baseman is virtually unaccounted-for in the advanced stats. The ability to scoop, stretch, jump, move, and reach for throws from infielders is absolutely vital for good first base play, and is far more important to a team than range on ground balls and throwing arm, IMO. If a player isn't particularly adept at fielding errant throws and getting the out either with a stretch or a tag, he isn't a good first baseman, regardless of how far he can range on grounders for an extra two or three plays a year, or how well he can fire a ball to third once or twice a year to get a guy out who is trying to advance an extra base. The thing is, a first baseman who isn't particularly good at catching an errant throw doesn't have that shortcoming show up anywhere in his stats, other than getting one more almost negligible put-out. The infielder that threw the ball gets charged with the error. Sure, there are elite fielding first basemen that excel at all of these things, but any system that weighs the skills that are secondary in importance most heavily is fundamentally flawed, IMO.

I think that this is why we see some dWAR numbers at these positions that seem to fly in the face of what we have seen in watching the games. My opinion, but I haven't seen anything that tells me I'm wrong about this.

Having said all this, I like Pearce on the team and I believe that he will again see a lot of playing time at 1B, LF, and DH for the Orioles, deservedly so.

[jamalshw]

WAR stinks and very few fans seem to notice. But I digress.

Back to Pearce...It's scary to count on him next year IMO. He's a total outlier and, consequently, impossible to predict. What a wacky (and fun) career! I hope he has another fantastic year and earns some serious cash in the future, but I could just as easily imagine him being mediocre and not getting much playing time unless there's an injury.

WAR has utility, but it's weakness is in the defensive side.

In anyway, I agree with you on Pearce. I wonder if he gets over-exposed over a full year. He may be best to serve as a roving player and get 300 at bats (more if injuries happen, which they will).

To me, I would love to see De Aza, Lough, Markakis and Cruz all brought back. that would put De Aza in LF, Markakis in RF, Cruz at DH and Lough as the 4th OF. Pearce then becomes a bat off the bench, but he can play for Davis some at 1B, particularly against a tough lefty. He can also sub out in LF and RF. Essentially, he becomes an everyday player against LHP.

[jamalshw]

Note: That while I'd like to see Cruz and Markakis back, I'm not sure both happen, but wouldn't be opposed to filling their holes externally while holding on to what we have.

[Ruzious]

I just disagree with this. His production during the season next year might warrant that but I am not going into the season with that mindset. His age, wrist issues and never playing everyday all are legitimate concerns. You keep Cruz or add another quality player and see how it plays out.

When he played, he was the most productive offensive player on the team and did very well defensively at both LF and 1B. It certainly makes no sense to play him less next season. I'd be very surprised if they can acquire a better bargain for next season. If they can - start them both.

[Ruzious]

As far as D'Aza - I'd say wait. Wait until other options dry up. On one hand, he's not going to break the bank, but on the other hand - players like him at his price aren't hard to get.