TSN's Deveney's Take on Roberts-Cubs

[ejf1025]

If the deal Bigbird's source says is in place then hopefully MacPhail is allowed to make this move. This would cap an extraordinary off season in which MacPhail will have overturned more then 50% of his 25 man roster. This off season would be touted as one of the best ever for any team IMO.

Slow your roll. The trades need to work out first...if the best we get is Mike Cameron (Adam Jones) and a bunch of relievers, I don't think we'll be too fond about who we dealt.

[brvn52]

If the deal Bigbird's source says is in place then hopefully MacPhail is allowed to make this move. This would cap an extraordinary off season in which MacPhail will have overturned more then 50% of his 25 man roster. This off season would be touted as one of the best ever for any team IMO.

I don't know if I'd go that far. It may be the best in the history of the Orioles (either this or the '95-'96 off-seasons) but the Marlins have had 2 rebuilding off-seasons that I can think of in the last 10 years that were way better than ours (of course they did have a lot more value from the guys they were trading as they had just won the WS)

[connja]

If the deal Bigbird's source says is in place then hopefully MacPhail is allowed to make this move. This would cap an extraordinary off season in which MacPhail will have overturned more then 50% of his 25 man roster. This off season would be touted as one of the best ever for any team IMO.

I don't agree - I see 4 very questionable pieces. Gallagher is another guy like a number of the other pitchers we have gotten this off-season. Same for Veal another level down. We don't need Murton - he's no better than Scott and is not part of the rebuild. And Cedeno is is a good risk but no sure thing. So in my mind, Roberts for 4 guys who aren't likely to be impact MLers is not a great trade. I'd rather have the stability at the top of the lineup and 2nd base this year.

If we could manage to get something for Mora, Millar, Payton, Huff or Gibbons that we could stick at SS, we'd actually have a more productive offensive team this year then we had last year (which we may already).

Note that McPhail is talking quantity AND quality. I don't see the quality here and it's just not filling needs.

I hold out for Pie in a deal with the cubs. ONly name there who has a chance to be a serious impact player. Pie, Gallagher (didn't say I wouldn't take him) and Marshall for BRob and Payton. Otherwise move on.

[33rdst]

I don't know if I'd go that far. It may be the best in the history of the Orioles (either this or the '95-'96 off-seasons) but the Marlins have had 2 rebuilding off-seasons that I can think of in the last 10 years that were way better than ours (of course they did have a lot more value from the guys they were trading as they had just won the WS)

Of course you're right I forgot about the fire sale after the world series.

Not bad to throw out a little hyperbole though. Gets the juices flowin:D

[brvn52]

Of course you're right I forgot about the fire sale after the world series.

Not bad to throw out a little hyperbole though. Gets the juices flowin:D

LOL, I hear ya. Man, I am so excited about this O's team now. I mean for the first time in years I'm excited about a team that has no shot at contention - this year. The second half of 2009 is when I think you'll see the team begin to really improve and 2010 we should be close to competing. The future is bright and I'm excited to be an O's fan!

[TheBee]

On the Hot Stove, AM was asked about BRob being traded or something like that, and his response, to paraphrase, was "It's hard to imagine how trading Roberts would make us better in '08."

That seems like an odd response, given that we are building for the future and not '08. Maybe posturing, maybe the dreaded PA influence, maybe nothing. But I didn't like hearing it.

I personally don't think BRob goes anywhere.

Has there ever been confirmation that there actually have been "talks"?

The actual quote was, "Same basic thing that I've been repeating over and over again. If something comes available to us that makes sense to us, that we think is in our best interest...and let's face it, you know the likelihood of us making another trade like we did with Miguel or, or, ugh, like we did with Eric and thinking we're going to be a better team immediately isn't so likely. You know you use the example of Brian Roberts. It's difficult to construct a scenario where I know I'm better in 2008 after I made that move. So, we have to make an evaluation as to the long term impact of any potential trade whether it be Brian or anybody else after this."

It is confusing, but earlier he mentioned that the Tejada and Bedard trades hurt us in the immediate (he hoped not for too long) future, but they were in the best long term interest of the team. I think all he was saying here is this would have to be the same kind of trade. One that helps us long term with lots of quality and quantity coming back. He said the same thing before the Bedard trade in the media. Saying he was telling teams, you want help for now and we can give it to you, but you are going to have to help our future.

[Roll Tide]

I know Marquis was talked about in the other thread. But in light of this article would you take ????

Gallagher, Murton, Cedeno, Marshall, & Veal for Roberts & Payton. If you think that is too much ... Would you make the deal by subtracting Veal???

[Number5]

If the deal Bigbird's source says is in place then hopefully MacPhail is allowed to make this move. This would cap an extraordinary off season in which MacPhail will have overturned more then 50% of his 25 man roster. This off season would be touted as one of the best ever for any team IMO.

Time will tell. AM has done a great job, no doubt, but I think you've gotta say that Detroit has done pretty darn good for themselves this off-season, don't ya?

[33rdst]

Guys I'm not with you on this one. Gallagher is only 21. Take a look at his stats as a teenager. I mean his strike outs to innings pitched are very good. His bb/so ratio is excellent and the kid did this all as essentially a baby. He has a lot of upside.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Sean-Gallagher.shtml

I see Cedeno as potentially an excellent player. If EQA means anything then he is going to be a good major league ball player at least.

Murton is only an accessory if you hang on to guys like Millar, Huff and Payton. Scott can play first and Murton becomes a fixture in left field.

Now Veal is a low level pitching prospect which I think we have plenty of. I'd prefer to replace him with an ML ready starter like Marshall or Patterson/Fontenot at second base.

this is a very good deal for us and creates a scenerio next year where we can add a Texeira and a high end starter in free agency and we're back in business.

[33rdst]

Time will tell. AM has done a great job, no doubt, but I think you've gotta say that Detroit has done pretty darn good for themselves this off-season, don't ya?

O yeah absolutely. Detriot pulled off a coup. But for impact on the total organization MacPhail's completed moves and proposed moves have to rival what Detroit has done. We'll see.

[TheBee]

One last thing about whether Roberts will be traded at some point before July 31st. Andy MacPhail admittedly hates rumors and speculation (came up yesterday, again). Why wouldn't he have put all the rampant rumors and speculation to an end with one clear statement that Roberts wasn't going anywhere? I didn't here that statement.

[baltfan]

Your analogy in the first paragraph is weak IMO. To make your analogy accurate, you'd have to ask which of these options you'd choose if selecting a pilot for your flight: someone who has been to school for flying, someone has has flown but never been to school, or someone who has both studied and has experience. I think the answer in this situation is fairly obvious.

I'm a chemical engineer and a stathead type. I've read the studies you're referring to. I also played ball at a fairly high level. None of that is intended to convey anything except my basis for the next statement. While I put a lot of weight in many of the statistical theories and studies of the past twenty years, I don't buy the studies I've read on line up placement/make up. I've played the game enough to know that it does matter and I think the studies are flawed. It is simply impossible to isolate the proper variables IMHO.

BTW, your last paragraph is totally uncalled for IMHO.

I couldn't agree more with this. Everyone needs to understand that not all sabremetric studies are equal. For example everyone admits we have yet to do a good job evaluating defense. There are so many factors involved in evaluating the effect of speed that studies are likely to fail to properly account for them. One good example is lumping all basestealers together vs looking at only the effect of the elite ones. Sometimes you have to trust your eyes. Watch the effect Ichiro and Roberts have on a pitcher while on first base.

[Roll Tide]

Guys I'm not with you on this one. Gallagher is only 21. Take a look at his stats as a teenager. I mean his strike outs to innings pitched are very good. His bb/so ratio is excellent and the kid did this all as essentially a baby. He has a lot of upside.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Sean-Gallagher.shtml

I see Cedeno as potentially an excellent player. If EQA means anything then he is going to be a good major league ball player at least.

Murton is only an accessory if you hang on to guys like Millar, Huff and Payton. Scott can play first and Murton becomes a fixture in left field.

Now Veal is a low level pitching prospect which I think we have plenty of. I'd prefer to replace him with an ML ready starter like Marshall or Patterson/Fontenot at second base.

this is a very good deal for us and creates a scenerio next year where we can add a Texeira and a high end starter in free agency and we're back in business.

I agree Murton Is 25 .. A very good hitter & could easily Platoon the DH & Lf position. Even a move ny 1 to 1st base as you suggest.

Gallagher only projects as a #3 guy ..maybe #2 best case projection. But who

knows maybe he's better than that.

[clapdiddy]

Guys I'm not with you on this one. Gallagher is only 21. Take a look at his stats as a teenager. I mean his strike outs to innings pitched are very good. His bb/so ratio is excellent and the kid did this all as essentially a baby. He has a lot of upside.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/G/Sean-Gallagher.shtml

I see Cedeno as potentially an excellent player. If EQA means anything then he is going to be a good major league ball player at least.

Murton is only an accessory if you hang on to guys like Millar, Huff and Payton. Scott can play first and Murton becomes a fixture in left field.

Now Veal is a low level pitching prospect which I think we have plenty of. I'd prefer to replace him with an ML ready starter like Marshall or Patterson/Fontenot at second base.

this is a very good deal for us and creates a scenerio next year where we can add a Texeira and a high end starter in free agency and we're back in business.

I am with you on this 33rd. To me, the most important guy we could get back from the Cubs is Gallagher. His minor league numbers make me believe he's going to be a more than adequate 3 or 4 starter in the bigs. Plus, he seems to throw strikes.

I would definitely like to see us get a deal that included Cedeno and Patterson. I think both of these guys are young enough that they could be here for a while and fill in at the 2B and SS positions, and get better at it.

[davearm]

The thing that inexplicably seems to be escaping most everyone here is that Roberts' value is not diminished much, if at all, by hitting second as opposed to first.

If his value is 100 as a leadoff guy, it's 90 or 95 as a #2 guy.

He still can run. He still "sets the table". There's still value in working the count. And on and on. The value inherent in those skills are not lost once a player moves from 1 to 2 in the lineup. People seem so fixated on defining him as "a great leadoff hitter" that they can't realize that he'd be a great #2 hitter too, and for the same reasons he's good at the top.

Now contrast that with Soriano. I gave the numbers earlier, and they're pretty compelling. If Soriano's value is 100 as a leadoff hitter, it's only like 60 or 70 as a 3/4/5 hitter... maybe even less than that.

So why wouldn't you sacrifice a minimal amount of value by moving Roberts one slot, versus losing significant value by moving Soriano several slots?