Relying on Draft Picks - a history lesson

[LookitsPuck]

There was a reason that draft stuck in my head.

But hey, we got Givens.

You know what's even crazier? Only Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly were drafted in the first 3 rounds.

Shelby Miller - 1st round. 9.6 WAR in 4 seasons.

Joe Kelly - 3rd round. 4.8 WAR in 5 seasons.

Matt Carpenter - 13th round. Been worth 13 WAR in 5 seasons.

Trevor Rosenthal - 21st round. 5.5 WAR in 4 seasons.

Matt Adams - 23rd round. 3.7 WAR in 4 seasons.

Nearly 37 WAR. That's downright filthy.

And Miller was drafted 19th overall. The Cardinals get AND develop this talent all the while being a very good team. It's not like they stockpile a million prospects because they finish last every year.

[Stotle]

One of the best in recent memory:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2012/draftcaster.jsp#ft=team&fv=hou

[Can_of_corn]

One of the best in recent memory:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2012/draftcaster.jsp#ft=team&fv=hou

I saw (and posted) about where the Astros' farm teams rank in a number of categories the other day, it's pretty sick.

And that was after promoting a bunch of guys.

[LookitsPuck]

One of the best in recent memory:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2012/draftcaster.jsp#ft=team&fv=hou

So let's just overpay everyone in the Cardinals and Astros organization and bring them over. Hey, worked for the Blue Jays...not a single strike against them.

[paulcoates]

You can't hire away without a bump in title, and even then you need permission. I'd focus on getting highly respected/trusted guys at the very top positions and hoping others want to come work for them. Many scouts will stay where they are comfortable since it's not a given you'll have a re-up on your contract when it expires.

So, you can't leave an organization for another organization unless you get more money? That seems very wrong to me. Essentially the companies hold your contract and you are beholden to them as long as they offer you a contract?

[Can_of_corn]

So, you can't leave an organization for another organization unless you get more money? That seems very wrong to me. Essentially the companies hold your contract and you are beholden to them as long as they offer you a contract?

I think they mostly work off of one year deals.

So they could let their deals lapse then become "Free agents".

[Stotle]

So, you can't leave an organization for another organization unless you get more money? That seems very wrong to me. Essentially the companies hold your contract and you are beholden to them as long as they offer you a contract?

You can't hire away someone under contract. You could wait until their contract expires, assuming they do not extend.

It gets tricky, too, because it's not always easy to figure out who the best talent truly is. Heck, front offices can't even figure out who the best GM candidates are. Teams tend not to advertise when they have kick ass people working for them, which is why my preference is to start at the top. The guys running the departments, are assistants/cross-checkers helping those guys. They know their own organization in and out and are better known commodities in the industry (so maybe could be a draw to evaluators/employees in other organizations looking for a change in scenery).

Now, you can ask for permission to interview say an area scout for a cross-checker position. But you can't just go and pillage a scouting department by throwing money at the scouts.

[weams]

You can't hire away someone under contract. You could wait until their contract expires, assuming they do not extend.

It gets tricky, too, because it's not always easy to figure out who the best talent truly is. Heck, front offices can't even figure out who the best GM candidates are. Teams tend not to advertise when they have kick ass people working for them, which is why my preference is to start at the top. The guys running the departments, are assistants/cross-checkers helping those guys. They know their own organization in and out and are better known commodities in the industry (so maybe could be a draw to evaluators/employees in other organizations looking for a change in scenery).

Now, you can ask for permission to interview say an area scout for a cross-checker position. But you can't just go and pillage a scouting department by throwing money at the scouts.

And it's not like the scouts are free agents even when their contracts are expiring. They are waiting for a renewal offer before they go taking interviews.

[Stotle]

And it's not like the scouts are free agents even when their contracts are expiring. They are waiting for a renewal offer before they go taking interviews.

Yeah, absolutely that's usually the case. The exception being when a scout wants to leave the organization. Even then, he's usually already got feelers out (shhhhhhh, don't tell) to make sure there is another boat he can swim to before jumping ship.

[weams]

So let's just overpay everyone in the Cardinals and Astros organization and bring them over. Hey, worked for the Blue Jays...not a single strike against them.

We just simply get Mark Reynolds to post a sticky on the Cardinals' BB and Jerome O'Bryan Hoes the Astros' with Dan's burner number on it. "For a BIG raise, CALL! 443-996-BUCK"

[weams]

We just simply get Mark Reynolds to post a sticky on the Cardinals' BB and Jerome O'Bryan Hoes the Astros' with Dan's burner number on it. "For a BIG raise, CALL! 443-996-BUCK"

Of course, with our luck, word will get back and the only call we will get is from Rick Dempsey.

[DrungoHazewood]

So you are relying on one data point almost 20 years old?

If the most logical way of building up the team on a reasonable budget is wrong, then you open yourself up to all kinds of unreasonable possibilities that otherwise you wouldn't try.

[Three Run Homer]

Unless you are the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers, you must obtain and develop young players if you want to compete in the long run.

But you can't do it with the draft alone. You need to sign international players with high upside too. What exactly have the Orioles done with their international bonus pool this year?

[Gofannon]

Unless you are the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers, you must obtain and develop young players if you want to compete in the long run.

But you can't do it with the draft alone. You need to sign international players with high upside too. What exactly have the Orioles done with their international bonus pool this year?

I agree with this.

I guess I wasn't as clear in my opening post as I meant to be, and I apologize if I misrepresented my opinion.

Obviously drafting well is going to be important for any team that isn't Boston, the Yankees and the Dodgers (and is a boon for those three teams as well). I'm hardly ignoring that as vital, given that the decade plus of bad Oriole drafts led to 14 years of frustration for all of us.

I do disagree with a sentiment I've seen that seems to highlight draft picks exclusively over major league-ready players. If we lose Wieters/Chen/Davis/O'Day and take comfort in the fact that at least we have 7 draft picks, then refuse to sign players that will help us in 2016 because we are afraid of losing draft picks, we are likely to be really bad next year. We saw what a small-market offseason did to us after losing two of our top players. If we lose four more and go on the cheap across the board, it is likely that we will be sub .500.

In my mind, this restarts what was a vicious cycle - losing baseball, lower attendance, lower payroll, potentially Manny and Schoop not wanting to sign here (to go worst-case scenario).

Obviously the 1999 draft was one draft. The Cardinals, Astros and Rays have done a wonderful job in the draft. We have not been those teams. This would be like being a Browns fan with a bunch of picks and pointing a Ravens draft as a possible outcome. It is, I guess, but we haven't seen it from our franchise.

[Can_of_corn]

You also have a vicious cycle when you pay for free agents, give up draft picks then can't develop major league players so you have to go and buy more free agents to fill out your roster.