Analyzing the 2017 Hitters' Market

[25 Nuggets]

Dan Duquette has made it clear that the Orioles are getting an OF this off season, and no I don't think the Rule 5 pick counts – though Aneury Tavarez has a good chance to take Nolan Reimold's bench spot. He tends to be a fairly straightforward GM when it comes to public speaking. He said the team would be active in the Rule 5 draft and they were. He said he would sign a catcher before the holidays, and he got Wellington Castillo. So let us assume the Orioles are active in the market for a player that can play OF, and perhaps DH.

Like they are apt to do under Duquette, the Orioles are in a wait-and-see mode as the market for such batters develops. Duquette has tilted this in his favor in the past, signing the likes of Nelson Cruz and Pedro Alvarez to affordable 1 yr deals late into the winter. This year the market may be the best it's ever been under his tenure. The question is what do they do with it? Let's take a look at why this is happening.

First is the obvious, the question of money. Many teams are saying they are at or near their spending limit. This is due to two factors: (a) teams giving out contracts beyond their means in pay scale, and (b) teams unwilling to go into the luxury tax threshold in the new CBA, especially for several years in a row.

Case in point, look at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not long ago they were considered a bottomless pit of money thanks to new owner Mark Walter and his mega TV deal. They spent like madmen, pushing their payroll close to $300 million. Well, thanks to issues surrounding said TV deal, president Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi have methodically brought payroll down while trying to stay competitive. This story is part of a systemic problem in baseball where major market executives are just starting to realize our culture is phasing television out. There will be drastic changes in our future and how we consume major league baseball. So, even the mighty New York Yankees are culling their payroll to get under the tax threshold by 2018. For the record, this is good news for teams who have already balanced a tight budget for years – like say, the Indians – but it doesn't mean they can spend all that much either.

The second reason why the market is stagnating is the lack of open roster spots. A record 111 players hit 20 home runs or more last season, an average of 3.7 players a team. A sum of 132 players recorded 200 or more total bases. A total of 104 qualifying players OPSed at least .750, which incidentally is about what you needed for a 100 OPS+ last season.

For players primarily used for their bats – namely corner OF, 1B, and DH types – there are only so many spots available across 30 major league teams. While we aren't seeing the individual seasons we saw during the steroid era, the sheer number of good hitting players, both young and old, has scoring up across the league.

 

Money and availability are choking the market for hitters. For a more in-depth look, let's see where we stand right now, December 16, 2016:

 

Players unsigned (OF/1B/DH) by 2016 wRC+

134 Edwin Encarnacion

123 Mark Trumbo

122 Jose Bautista

117 Pedro Alvarez

117 Michael Saunders

114 Franklin Gutierrez

113 Mike Napoli

112 Chris Carter

105 Brandon Moss

105 Angel Pagan

104 Marlon Byrd

101 Logan Morrison

 

These are all players that produced above the 100 wRC+ line last year. The list doesn't even include proven players with down years such as Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, Austin Jackson, James Loney, Ben Revere, Rajai Davis and Chris Coghlan.

The Orioles have been linked to Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Michael Saunders, Chris Carter and Angel Pagan at various times since the beginning of the off season. Edwin Encarnacion remains a looming specter for all teams.

 

Team-by-team then, who are left to sign these players?

 

AL East

1. Boston – (Mitch Moreland, 1 yr, $5.5 mil). Every indication is they're ready to roll with what they've got. Moreland helps fill in the void left by David Ortiz. A slimmed down Panda is back at 3B and they've got great youth in the OF. OUT

2. New York – (Matt Holliday, 1 yr, $13 mil). Holliday is their buy. They are looking for another reliever and must move salary to do so. They really want to be under the tax threshold next off season. OUT

3. Tampa Bay – (Wilson Ramos, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). I put Ramos here because any signing for Tampa is significant, and besides he may be eased back into catching. Tampa won't be serious bidders for anyone, but will probably eventually land one or two of these players on the cheap. OUT

4. Toronto – (Kendrys Morales, 3 yr, $33 mil / Steve Pearce, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). Toronto is moving on from the big fish, namely Edwin Encarnacion, though $11 mil a year for Morales looks like an overpay in this market. They are still looking for an OF and are probably in the same boat as Baltimore in this regard. They can spend, but not too much. IN

 

AL Central

1. Chicago – in the middle of a fire sale. They may grab a guy desperate to hang onto the majors but aren't considered contenders for anyone significant. OUT

2. Cleveland – they need someone to replace Mike Napoli, which might be Mike Napoli. They have offered a 1 yr deal to him as well as Michael Saunders and were in on Matt Holliday. They cannot however offer a "significant deal" to anyone. IN

3. Detroit – trying to trade away pieces and can't even do that in this market. J.D. Martinez can be had, and nobody wants to meet their asking price and pay for his salary. OUT

4. Kansas City – traded for their OF in Jorge Soler and are trying to figure out who else they can shed and who they should keep. They were even in preliminary talks with the Orioles about Jarrod Dyson. OUT

5. Minnesota – table scraps. The latest buzz is whether or not they trade their best player in Brian Dozier to the Dodgers. OUT

 

AL West

1. Houston – (Josh Reddick, 4 yr, $52 mil / Carlos Beltran, 1 yr, $16 mil). They are firmly looking at upgrading their pitching staff after plucking two hitters from the market. OUT

2. Los Angeles – honestly not sure about this team but they have huge contracts to Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, and acquired Cameron Maybin. OUT (?)

3. Oakland – (Matt Joyce, 2 yr, $11 mil). The Athletics are unexpected players in this market; they must be sensing good prices to be had, and are sending feelers out in several directions including free agents and trade. IN

4. Seattle – They are actively shopping Seth Smith. This may mean they need to move money, and perhaps they sign someone if Smith goes. I'll consider him a block then. They've kicked the tires on Mark Trumbo but the vast majority of their attention is on pitching right now. FENCE

5. Texas – (Carlos Gomez, 1 yr, $11.5 mil).  The Rangers are absolutely looking for another bat; however, they have repeatedly said they are at their spending limit. The Rangers are like the Indians in this regard. But they are active on the trade and FA fronts. IN

 

NL East

1. Atlanta – (Sean Rodriguez, 2 yr, $11.5 mil). In rebuild mode, the Braves are now signing the likes of Emilio Bonifacio and Reid Brignac. OUT

2. Miami – they do have money to spend, highlighted by their runs at Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but there is nothing going as far as position players. OUT

3. New York – (Yoenis Cespedes, 4 yr, $110 mil). They are trying to trade Jay Bruce and/or Curtis Granderson. There is no room on the roster. OUT

4. Philadelphia – full speed rebuild, they may sign a table scrap or two but they are MacPhailing it. OUT

5. Washington – made their move when they traded for Adam Eaton. They had no room for Trea Turner and moved him to the infield, by trading Danny Espinosa. Now like the Marlins they are seeking a closer. OUT

 

NL Central

1. Chicago – (Jon Jay, 1 yr, $8 mil). They have no room. In fact they traded Jorge Soler for bullpen help because he had no spot on the 25-man. OUT

2. Cincinnati – You may have read this before. The Reds are rebuilding, and while they may sign someone on the cheap, they won't be top bidders for anyone listed. OUT

3. Milwaukee – (Eric Thames, 3 yr, $16 mil). They won the sweepstakes for perhaps the most interesting bat this off season, but yet again, they didn't break the bank for him. In a stunning move, they released NL home run champ Chris Carter simply because of the reasons I mentioned.... money and availability. 41 HR, 94 RBI, 274 TB and a 114 OPS+. Let that sink in. OUT

4. Pittsburgh – yet another team trying to trade away a bat, this time former MVP Andrew McCutchen, and they are having trouble like everyone else finding the right suitor. OUT

5. Saint Louis – (Dexter Fowler, 5 yr, $82.5 mil). They were a major player in the OF/1B market until they landed one of the biggest names on it. They are still considering another free agent add, but in the meantime are listening to offers for Matt Adams while expecting to move Matt Carpenter to first base. FENCE

 

NL West

1. Arizona – They are in spending purgatory after largely whiffing last year... SP Zack Grienke is making over a third of their entire payroll. Besides, they are set at 1B and OF. OUT

2. Colorado – (Ian Desmond, 5 yr, $70 mil). They are in the "move someone to sign someone" crowd but in this case they might actually be able to trade an outfielder in order to get Mark Trumbo or Edwin Encarnacion at 1B. Teams are in talks with them regarding both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon. It's a reasonable bet to say they will be signing one more bat. IN

3. Los Angeles – they spent their money re-signing their own in Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner, and they still need to address 2B. They are at their spending limit. OUT

4. San Diego – just an absolute mess right now, and teams are not dealing with them. They have zero major league contracts to free agents right now and I have no idea what they're doing. OUT (?)

5. San Francisco – they are looking for a bat for the bench, and did sign Mark Reynolds to a minor league deal – this does not preclude them signing someone else. But like the Indians and Rangers, it doesn't sound like it would be a large deal. They like the Dodgers and Yankees are concerned about the luxury tax and are letting all of their incumbent FA go including Angel Pagan. FENCE

 

CONCLUSION

I've given the who, what, where and why; I've listed twelve available free agents by wRC+ and mentioned seven more who all play the OF/1B/DH position, and gone over where every team sits in the market. Here are the results:

 

IN – Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Oakland, Texas, Toronto

FENCE – Saint Louis, San Francisco, Seattle

OUT (?) - Los Angeles (AL), San Diego

 

That's 11 out of 30 teams, and only six that I'm fairly certain will land some hitter of significance. On top of this, many teams are trying to trade OF/1B/DH types, such as the Yankees, Tigers, Pirates and Mets.

All this leads to good news for the Orioles. If nothing changes between now and January 1, they could get more than one of these guys on reasonable contracts, and several of the teams who jumped early will be looking at bad FA deals.

[Aristotelian]

Good post. I think you also have a bunch of similar players competing against each other for a smaller number of spots. Trumbo, Bautista, Encarnacion, Pedro, Moss, Napoli...Encarnacion is coming off the best year of the group, but if you can get Pedro for 1/$5, do you really want to commit $50M to Encarnacion?

[Frobby]

Wow, that is a very thorough breakdown.   For our purposes, ranking the players by wRC+ doesn't tell the whole story, because Duquette has made it clear he wants better defense in the OF.   A lot of the guys on that list are defensive liabilities.   But we really have two spots open, RF and DH.   There are lots of good options there for DH, not as many for RF.  

[wildcard]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Wow, that is a very thorough breakdown.   For our purposes, ranking the players by wRC+ doesn't tell the whole story, because Duquette has made it clear he wants better defense in the OF.   A lot of the guys on that list are defensive liabilities.   But we really have two spots open, RF and DH.   There are lots of good options there for DH, not as many for RF.  

Nice post by 25 Nuggets.  I agree about your point aboutf not many RFers.   In fact I wonder if any of them are better than  some combination of Rickard/Tavarez in RF.   Depending on what happens with Trumbo at DH I think what is on the free agent market is better in left field sharing time with Kim.

The trade market for a RFer needs to be considered to find someone better.

[Redskins Rick]

He also said more than one, LHB and fast, so that also rules out some of the available options.

[weams]

4 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Dan Duquette has made it clear that the Orioles are getting an OF this off season, and no I don't think the Rule 5 pick counts – though Aneury Tavarez has a good chance to take Nolan Reimold's bench spot. He tends to be a fairly straightforward GM when it comes to public speaking. He said the team would be active in the Rule 5 draft and they were. He said he would sign a catcher before the holidays, and he got Wellington Castillo. So let us assume the Orioles are active in the market for a player that can play OF, and perhaps DH.

Like they are apt to do under Duquette, the Orioles are in a wait-and-see mode as the market for such batters develops. Duquette has tilted this in his favor in the past, signing the likes of Nelson Cruz and Pedro Alvarez to affordable 1 yr deals late into the winter. This year the market may be the best it's ever been under his tenure. The question is what do they do with it? Let's take a look at why this is happening.

First is the obvious, the question of money. Many teams are saying they are at or near their spending limit. This is due to two factors: (a) teams giving out contracts beyond their means in pay scale, and (b) teams unwilling to go into the luxury tax threshold in the new CBA, especially for several years in a row.

Case in point, look at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not long ago they were considered a bottomless pit of money thanks to new owner Mark Walter and his mega TV deal. They spent like madmen, pushing their payroll close to $300 million. Well, thanks to issues surrounding said TV deal, president Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi have methodically brought payroll down while trying to stay competitive. This story is part of a systemic problem in baseball where major market executives are just starting to realize our culture is phasing television out. There will be drastic changes in our future and how we consume major league baseball. So, even the mighty New York Yankees are culling their payroll to get under the tax threshold by 2018. For the record, this is good news for teams who have already balanced a tight budget for years – like say, the Indians – but it doesn't mean they can spend all that much either.

The second reason why the market is stagnating is the lack of open roster spots. A record 111 players hit 20 home runs or more last season, an average of 3.7 players a team. A sum of 132 players recorded 200 or more total bases. A total of 104 qualifying players OPSed at least .750, which incidentally is about what you needed for a 100 OPS+ last season.

For players primarily used for their bats – namely corner OF, 1B, and DH types – there are only so many spots available across 30 major league teams. While we aren't seeing the individual seasons we saw during the steroid era, the sheer number of good hitting players, both young and old, has scoring up across the league.

 

Money and availability are choking the market for hitters. For a more in-depth look, let's see where we stand right now, December 16, 2016:

 

Players unsigned (OF/1B/DH) by 2016 wRC+

134 Edwin Encarnacion

123 Mark Trumbo

122 Jose Bautista

117 Pedro Alvarez

117 Michael Saunders

114 Franklin Gutierrez

113 Mike Napoli

112 Chris Carter

105 Brandon Moss

105 Angel Pagan

104 Marlon Byrd

101 Logan Morrison

 

These are all players that produced above the 100 wRC+ line last year. The list doesn't even include proven players with down years such as Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, Austin Jackson, James Loney, Ben Revere, Rajai Davis and Chris Coghlan.

The Orioles have been linked to Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Michael Saunders, Chris Carter and Angel Pagan at various times since the beginning of the off season. Edwin Encarnacion remains a looming specter for all teams.

 

Team-by-team then, who are left to sign these players?

 

AL East

1. Boston – (Mitch Moreland, 1 yr, $5.5 mil). Every indication is they're ready to roll with what they've got. Moreland helps fill in the void left by David Ortiz. A slimmed down Panda is back at 3B and they've got great youth in the OF. OUT

2. New York – (Matt Holliday, 1 yr, $13 mil). Holliday is their buy. They are looking for another reliever and must move salary to do so. They really want to be under the tax threshold next off season. OUT

3. Tampa Bay – (Wilson Ramos, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). I put Ramos here because any signing for Tampa is significant, and besides he may be eased back into catching. Tampa won't be serious bidders for anyone, but will probably eventually land one or two of these players on the cheap. OUT

4. Toronto – (Kendrys Morales, 3 yr, $33 mil / Steve Pearce, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). Toronto is moving on from the big fish, namely Edwin Encarnacion, though $11 mil a year for Morales looks like an overpay in this market. They are still looking for an OF and are probably in the same boat as Baltimore in this regard. They can spend, but not too much. IN

 

AL Central

1. Chicago – in the middle of a fire sale. They may grab a guy desperate to hang onto the majors but aren't considered contenders for anyone significant. OUT

2. Cleveland – they need someone to replace Mike Napoli, which might be Mike Napoli. They have offered a 1 yr deal to him as well as Michael Saunders and were in on Matt Holliday. They cannot however offer a "significant deal" to anyone. IN

3. Detroit – trying to trade away pieces and can't even do that in this market. J.D. Martinez can be had, and nobody wants to meet their asking price and pay for his salary. OUT

4. Kansas City – traded for their OF in Jorge Soler and are trying to figure out who else they can shed and who they should keep. They were even in preliminary talks with the Orioles about Jarrod Dyson. OUT

5. Minnesota – table scraps. The latest buzz is whether or not they trade their best player in Brian Dozier to the Dodgers. OUT

 

AL West

1. Houston – (Josh Reddick, 4 yr, $52 mil / Carlos Beltran, 1 yr, $16 mil). They are firmly looking at upgrading their pitching staff after plucking two hitters from the market. OUT

2. Los Angeles – honestly not sure about this team but they have huge contracts to Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, and acquired Cameron Maybin. OUT (?)

3. Oakland – (Matt Joyce, 2 yr, $11 mil). The Athletics are unexpected players in this market; they must be sensing good prices to be had, and are sending feelers out in several directions including free agents and trade. IN

4. Seattle – They are actively shopping Seth Smith. This may mean they need to move money, and perhaps they sign someone if Smith goes. I'll consider him a block then. They've kicked the tires on Mark Trumbo but the vast majority of their attention is on pitching right now. FENCE

5. Texas – (Carlos Gomez, 1 yr, $11.5 mil).  The Rangers are absolutely looking for another bat; however, they have repeatedly said they are at their spending limit. The Rangers are like the Indians in this regard. But they are active on the trade and FA fronts. IN

 

NL East

1. Atlanta – (Sean Rodriguez, 2 yr, $11.5 mil). In rebuild mode, the Braves are now signing the likes of Emilio Bonifacio and Reid Brignac. OUT

2. Miami – they do have money to spend, highlighted by their runs at Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but there is nothing going as far as position players. OUT

3. New York – (Yoenis Cespedes, 4 yr, $110 mil). They are trying to trade Jay Bruce and/or Curtis Granderson. There is no room on the roster. OUT

4. Philadelphia – full speed rebuild, they may sign a table scrap or two but they are MacPhailing it. OUT

5. Washington – made their move when they traded for Adam Eaton. They had no room for Trea Turner and moved him to the infield, by trading Danny Espinosa. Now like the Marlins they are seeking a closer. OUT

 

NL Central

1. Chicago – (Jon Jay, 1 yr, $8 mil). They have no room. In fact they traded Jorge Soler for bullpen help because he had no spot on the 25-man. OUT

2. Cincinnati – You may have read this before. The Reds are rebuilding, and while they may sign someone on the cheap, they won't be top bidders for anyone listed. OUT

3. Milwaukee – (Eric Thames, 3 yr, $16 mil). They won the sweepstakes for perhaps the most interesting bat this off season, but yet again, they didn't break the bank for him. In a stunning move, they released NL home run champ Chris Carter simply because of the reasons I mentioned.... money and availability. 41 HR, 94 RBI, 274 TB and a 114 OPS+. Let that sink in. OUT

4. Pittsburgh – yet another team trying to trade away a bat, this time former MVP Andrew McCutchen, and they are having trouble like everyone else finding the right suitor. OUT

5. Saint Louis – (Dexter Fowler, 5 yr, $82.5 mil). They were a major player in the OF/1B market until they landed one of the biggest names on it. They are still considering another free agent add, but in the meantime are listening to offers for Matt Adams while expecting to move Matt Carpenter to first base. FENCE

 

NL West

1. Arizona – They are in spending purgatory after largely whiffing last year... SP Zack Grienke is making over a third of their entire payroll. Besides, they are set at 1B and OF. OUT

2. Colorado – (Ian Desmond, 5 yr, $70 mil). They are in the "move someone to sign someone" crowd but in this case they might actually be able to trade an outfielder in order to get Mark Trumbo or Edwin Encarnacion at 1B. Teams are in talks with them regarding both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon. It's a reasonable bet to say they will be signing one more bat. IN

3. Los Angeles – they spent their money re-signing their own in Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner, and they still need to address 2B. They are at their spending limit. OUT

4. San Diego – just an absolute mess right now, and teams are not dealing with them. They have zero major league contracts to free agents right now and I have no idea what they're doing. OUT (?)

5. San Francisco – they are looking for a bat for the bench, and did sign Mark Reynolds to a minor league deal – this does not preclude them signing someone else. But like the Indians and Rangers, it doesn't sound like it would be a large deal. They like the Dodgers and Yankees are concerned about the luxury tax and are letting all of their incumbent FA go including Angel Pagan. FENCE

 

CONCLUSION

I've given the who, what, where and why; I've listed twelve available free agents by wRC+ and mentioned seven more who all play the OF/1B/DH position, and gone over where every team sits in the market. Here are the results:

 

IN – Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Oakland, Texas, Toronto

FENCE – Saint Louis, San Francisco, Seattle

OUT (?) - Los Angeles (AL), San Diego

 

That's 11 out of 30 teams, and only six that I'm fairly certain will land some hitter of significance. On top of this, many teams are trying to trade OF/1B/DH types, such as the Yankees, Tigers, Pirates and Mets.

All this leads to good news for the Orioles. If nothing changes between now and January 1, they could get more than one of these guys on reasonable contracts, and several of the teams who jumped early will be looking at bad FA deals.

Excellent thread excellent research front page article.

Thanks

[Camden_yardbird]

Gutierrez is a very under the radar player.  I think his injury history keeps the Orioles away but I think he could be really good here and cheap enough to allow other upgrades.

[Bahama O's Fan]

5 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Dan Duquette has made it clear that the Orioles are getting an OF this off season, and no I don't think the Rule 5 pick counts – though Aneury Tavarez has a good chance to take Nolan Reimold's bench spot. He tends to be a fairly straightforward GM when it comes to public speaking. He said the team would be active in the Rule 5 draft and they were. He said he would sign a catcher before the holidays, and he got Wellington Castillo. So let us assume the Orioles are active in the market for a player that can play OF, and perhaps DH.

Like they are apt to do under Duquette, the Orioles are in a wait-and-see mode as the market for such batters develops. Duquette has tilted this in his favor in the past, signing the likes of Nelson Cruz and Pedro Alvarez to affordable 1 yr deals late into the winter. This year the market may be the best it's ever been under his tenure. The question is what do they do with it? Let's take a look at why this is happening.

First is the obvious, the question of money. Many teams are saying they are at or near their spending limit. This is due to two factors: (a) teams giving out contracts beyond their means in pay scale, and (b) teams unwilling to go into the luxury tax threshold in the new CBA, especially for several years in a row.

Case in point, look at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not long ago they were considered a bottomless pit of money thanks to new owner Mark Walter and his mega TV deal. They spent like madmen, pushing their payroll close to $300 million. Well, thanks to issues surrounding said TV deal, president Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi have methodically brought payroll down while trying to stay competitive. This story is part of a systemic problem in baseball where major market executives are just starting to realize our culture is phasing television out. There will be drastic changes in our future and how we consume major league baseball. So, even the mighty New York Yankees are culling their payroll to get under the tax threshold by 2018. For the record, this is good news for teams who have already balanced a tight budget for years – like say, the Indians – but it doesn't mean they can spend all that much either.

The second reason why the market is stagnating is the lack of open roster spots. A record 111 players hit 20 home runs or more last season, an average of 3.7 players a team. A sum of 132 players recorded 200 or more total bases. A total of 104 qualifying players OPSed at least .750, which incidentally is about what you needed for a 100 OPS+ last season.

For players primarily used for their bats – namely corner OF, 1B, and DH types – there are only so many spots available across 30 major league teams. While we aren't seeing the individual seasons we saw during the steroid era, the sheer number of good hitting players, both young and old, has scoring up across the league.

 

Money and availability are choking the market for hitters. For a more in-depth look, let's see where we stand right now, December 16, 2016:

 

Players unsigned (OF/1B/DH) by 2016 wRC+

134 Edwin Encarnacion

123 Mark Trumbo

122 Jose Bautista

117 Pedro Alvarez

117 Michael Saunders

114 Franklin Gutierrez

113 Mike Napoli

112 Chris Carter

105 Brandon Moss

105 Angel Pagan

104 Marlon Byrd

101 Logan Morrison

 

These are all players that produced above the 100 wRC+ line last year. The list doesn't even include proven players with down years such as Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, Austin Jackson, James Loney, Ben Revere, Rajai Davis and Chris Coghlan.

The Orioles have been linked to Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Michael Saunders, Chris Carter and Angel Pagan at various times since the beginning of the off season. Edwin Encarnacion remains a looming specter for all teams.

 

Team-by-team then, who are left to sign these players?

 

AL East

1. Boston – (Mitch Moreland, 1 yr, $5.5 mil). Every indication is they're ready to roll with what they've got. Moreland helps fill in the void left by David Ortiz. A slimmed down Panda is back at 3B and they've got great youth in the OF. OUT

2. New York – (Matt Holliday, 1 yr, $13 mil). Holliday is their buy. They are looking for another reliever and must move salary to do so. They really want to be under the tax threshold next off season. OUT

3. Tampa Bay – (Wilson Ramos, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). I put Ramos here because any signing for Tampa is significant, and besides he may be eased back into catching. Tampa won't be serious bidders for anyone, but will probably eventually land one or two of these players on the cheap. OUT

4. Toronto – (Kendrys Morales, 3 yr, $33 mil / Steve Pearce, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). Toronto is moving on from the big fish, namely Edwin Encarnacion, though $11 mil a year for Morales looks like an overpay in this market. They are still looking for an OF and are probably in the same boat as Baltimore in this regard. They can spend, but not too much. IN

 

AL Central

1. Chicago – in the middle of a fire sale. They may grab a guy desperate to hang onto the majors but aren't considered contenders for anyone significant. OUT

2. Cleveland – they need someone to replace Mike Napoli, which might be Mike Napoli. They have offered a 1 yr deal to him as well as Michael Saunders and were in on Matt Holliday. They cannot however offer a "significant deal" to anyone. IN

3. Detroit – trying to trade away pieces and can't even do that in this market. J.D. Martinez can be had, and nobody wants to meet their asking price and pay for his salary. OUT

4. Kansas City – traded for their OF in Jorge Soler and are trying to figure out who else they can shed and who they should keep. They were even in preliminary talks with the Orioles about Jarrod Dyson. OUT

5. Minnesota – table scraps. The latest buzz is whether or not they trade their best player in Brian Dozier to the Dodgers. OUT

 

AL West

1. Houston – (Josh Reddick, 4 yr, $52 mil / Carlos Beltran, 1 yr, $16 mil). They are firmly looking at upgrading their pitching staff after plucking two hitters from the market. OUT

2. Los Angeles – honestly not sure about this team but they have huge contracts to Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, and acquired Cameron Maybin. OUT (?)

3. Oakland – (Matt Joyce, 2 yr, $11 mil). The Athletics are unexpected players in this market; they must be sensing good prices to be had, and are sending feelers out in several directions including free agents and trade. IN

4. Seattle – They are actively shopping Seth Smith. This may mean they need to move money, and perhaps they sign someone if Smith goes. I'll consider him a block then. They've kicked the tires on Mark Trumbo but the vast majority of their attention is on pitching right now. FENCE

5. Texas – (Carlos Gomez, 1 yr, $11.5 mil).  The Rangers are absolutely looking for another bat; however, they have repeatedly said they are at their spending limit. The Rangers are like the Indians in this regard. But they are active on the trade and FA fronts. IN

 

NL East

1. Atlanta – (Sean Rodriguez, 2 yr, $11.5 mil). In rebuild mode, the Braves are now signing the likes of Emilio Bonifacio and Reid Brignac. OUT

2. Miami – they do have money to spend, highlighted by their runs at Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but there is nothing going as far as position players. OUT

3. New York – (Yoenis Cespedes, 4 yr, $110 mil). They are trying to trade Jay Bruce and/or Curtis Granderson. There is no room on the roster. OUT

4. Philadelphia – full speed rebuild, they may sign a table scrap or two but they are MacPhailing it. OUT

5. Washington – made their move when they traded for Adam Eaton. They had no room for Trea Turner and moved him to the infield, by trading Danny Espinosa. Now like the Marlins they are seeking a closer. OUT

 

NL Central

1. Chicago – (Jon Jay, 1 yr, $8 mil). They have no room. In fact they traded Jorge Soler for bullpen help because he had no spot on the 25-man. OUT

2. Cincinnati – You may have read this before. The Reds are rebuilding, and while they may sign someone on the cheap, they won't be top bidders for anyone listed. OUT

3. Milwaukee – (Eric Thames, 3 yr, $16 mil). They won the sweepstakes for perhaps the most interesting bat this off season, but yet again, they didn't break the bank for him. In a stunning move, they released NL home run champ Chris Carter simply because of the reasons I mentioned.... money and availability. 41 HR, 94 RBI, 274 TB and a 114 OPS+. Let that sink in. OUT

4. Pittsburgh – yet another team trying to trade away a bat, this time former MVP Andrew McCutchen, and they are having trouble like everyone else finding the right suitor. OUT

5. Saint Louis – (Dexter Fowler, 5 yr, $82.5 mil). They were a major player in the OF/1B market until they landed one of the biggest names on it. They are still considering another free agent add, but in the meantime are listening to offers for Matt Adams while expecting to move Matt Carpenter to first base. FENCE

 

NL West

1. Arizona – They are in spending purgatory after largely whiffing last year... SP Zack Grienke is making over a third of their entire payroll. Besides, they are set at 1B and OF. OUT

2. Colorado – (Ian Desmond, 5 yr, $70 mil). They are in the "move someone to sign someone" crowd but in this case they might actually be able to trade an outfielder in order to get Mark Trumbo or Edwin Encarnacion at 1B. Teams are in talks with them regarding both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon. It's a reasonable bet to say they will be signing one more bat. IN

3. Los Angeles – they spent their money re-signing their own in Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner, and they still need to address 2B. They are at their spending limit. OUT

4. San Diego – just an absolute mess right now, and teams are not dealing with them. They have zero major league contracts to free agents right now and I have no idea what they're doing. OUT (?)

5. San Francisco – they are looking for a bat for the bench, and did sign Mark Reynolds to a minor league deal – this does not preclude them signing someone else. But like the Indians and Rangers, it doesn't sound like it would be a large deal. They like the Dodgers and Yankees are concerned about the luxury tax and are letting all of their incumbent FA go including Angel Pagan. FENCE

 

CONCLUSION

I've given the who, what, where and why; I've listed twelve available free agents by wRC+ and mentioned seven more who all play the OF/1B/DH position, and gone over where every team sits in the market. Here are the results:

 

IN – Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Oakland, Texas, Toronto

FENCE – Saint Louis, San Francisco, Seattle

OUT (?) - Los Angeles (AL), San Diego

 

That's 11 out of 30 teams, and only six that I'm fairly certain will land some hitter of significance. On top of this, many teams are trying to trade OF/1B/DH types, such as the Yankees, Tigers, Pirates and Mets.

All this leads to good news for the Orioles. If nothing changes between now and January 1, they could get more than one of these guys on reasonable contracts, and several of the teams who jumped early will be looking at bad FA deals.

Thanks so much; this is fantastic!

[El Gordo]

5 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Dan Duquette has made it clear that the Orioles are getting an OF this off season, and no I don't think the Rule 5 pick counts – though Aneury Tavarez has a good chance to take Nolan Reimold's bench spot. He tends to be a fairly straightforward GM when it comes to public speaking. He said the team would be active in the Rule 5 draft and they were. He said he would sign a catcher before the holidays, and he got Wellington Castillo. So let us assume the Orioles are active in the market for a player that can play OF, and perhaps DH.

Like they are apt to do under Duquette, the Orioles are in a wait-and-see mode as the market for such batters develops. Duquette has tilted this in his favor in the past, signing the likes of Nelson Cruz and Pedro Alvarez to affordable 1 yr deals late into the winter. This year the market may be the best it's ever been under his tenure. The question is what do they do with it? Let's take a look at why this is happening.

First is the obvious, the question of money. Many teams are saying they are at or near their spending limit. This is due to two factors: (a) teams giving out contracts beyond their means in pay scale, and (b) teams unwilling to go into the luxury tax threshold in the new CBA, especially for several years in a row.

Case in point, look at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not long ago they were considered a bottomless pit of money thanks to new owner Mark Walter and his mega TV deal. They spent like madmen, pushing their payroll close to $300 million. Well, thanks to issues surrounding said TV deal, president Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi have methodically brought payroll down while trying to stay competitive. This story is part of a systemic problem in baseball where major market executives are just starting to realize our culture is phasing television out. There will be drastic changes in our future and how we consume major league baseball. So, even the mighty New York Yankees are culling their payroll to get under the tax threshold by 2018. For the record, this is good news for teams who have already balanced a tight budget for years – like say, the Indians – but it doesn't mean they can spend all that much either.

The second reason why the market is stagnating is the lack of open roster spots. A record 111 players hit 20 home runs or more last season, an average of 3.7 players a team. A sum of 132 players recorded 200 or more total bases. A total of 104 qualifying players OPSed at least .750, which incidentally is about what you needed for a 100 OPS+ last season.

For players primarily used for their bats – namely corner OF, 1B, and DH types – there are only so many spots available across 30 major league teams. While we aren't seeing the individual seasons we saw during the steroid era, the sheer number of good hitting players, both young and old, has scoring up across the league.

 

Money and availability are choking the market for hitters. For a more in-depth look, let's see where we stand right now, December 16, 2016:

 

Players unsigned (OF/1B/DH) by 2016 wRC+

134 Edwin Encarnacion

123 Mark Trumbo

122 Jose Bautista

117 Pedro Alvarez

117 Michael Saunders

114 Franklin Gutierrez

113 Mike Napoli

112 Chris Carter

105 Brandon Moss

105 Angel Pagan

104 Marlon Byrd

101 Logan Morrison

 

These are all players that produced above the 100 wRC+ line last year. The list doesn't even include proven players with down years such as Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, Austin Jackson, James Loney, Ben Revere, Rajai Davis and Chris Coghlan.

The Orioles have been linked to Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Michael Saunders, Chris Carter and Angel Pagan at various times since the beginning of the off season. Edwin Encarnacion remains a looming specter for all teams.

 

Team-by-team then, who are left to sign these players?

 

AL East

1. Boston – (Mitch Moreland, 1 yr, $5.5 mil). Every indication is they're ready to roll with what they've got. Moreland helps fill in the void left by David Ortiz. A slimmed down Panda is back at 3B and they've got great youth in the OF. OUT

2. New York – (Matt Holliday, 1 yr, $13 mil). Holliday is their buy. They are looking for another reliever and must move salary to do so. They really want to be under the tax threshold next off season. OUT

3. Tampa Bay – (Wilson Ramos, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). I put Ramos here because any signing for Tampa is significant, and besides he may be eased back into catching. Tampa won't be serious bidders for anyone, but will probably eventually land one or two of these players on the cheap. OUT

4. Toronto – (Kendrys Morales, 3 yr, $33 mil / Steve Pearce, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). Toronto is moving on from the big fish, namely Edwin Encarnacion, though $11 mil a year for Morales looks like an overpay in this market. They are still looking for an OF and are probably in the same boat as Baltimore in this regard. They can spend, but not too much. IN

 

AL Central

1. Chicago – in the middle of a fire sale. They may grab a guy desperate to hang onto the majors but aren't considered contenders for anyone significant. OUT

2. Cleveland – they need someone to replace Mike Napoli, which might be Mike Napoli. They have offered a 1 yr deal to him as well as Michael Saunders and were in on Matt Holliday. They cannot however offer a "significant deal" to anyone. IN

3. Detroit – trying to trade away pieces and can't even do that in this market. J.D. Martinez can be had, and nobody wants to meet their asking price and pay for his salary. OUT

4. Kansas City – traded for their OF in Jorge Soler and are trying to figure out who else they can shed and who they should keep. They were even in preliminary talks with the Orioles about Jarrod Dyson. OUT

5. Minnesota – table scraps. The latest buzz is whether or not they trade their best player in Brian Dozier to the Dodgers. OUT

 

AL West

1. Houston – (Josh Reddick, 4 yr, $52 mil / Carlos Beltran, 1 yr, $16 mil). They are firmly looking at upgrading their pitching staff after plucking two hitters from the market. OUT

2. Los Angeles – honestly not sure about this team but they have huge contracts to Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, and acquired Cameron Maybin. OUT (?)

3. Oakland – (Matt Joyce, 2 yr, $11 mil). The Athletics are unexpected players in this market; they must be sensing good prices to be had, and are sending feelers out in several directions including free agents and trade. IN

4. Seattle – They are actively shopping Seth Smith. This may mean they need to move money, and perhaps they sign someone if Smith goes. I'll consider him a block then. They've kicked the tires on Mark Trumbo but the vast majority of their attention is on pitching right now. FENCE

5. Texas – (Carlos Gomez, 1 yr, $11.5 mil).  The Rangers are absolutely looking for another bat; however, they have repeatedly said they are at their spending limit. The Rangers are like the Indians in this regard. But they are active on the trade and FA fronts. IN

 

NL East

1. Atlanta – (Sean Rodriguez, 2 yr, $11.5 mil). In rebuild mode, the Braves are now signing the likes of Emilio Bonifacio and Reid Brignac. OUT

2. Miami – they do have money to spend, highlighted by their runs at Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but there is nothing going as far as position players. OUT

3. New York – (Yoenis Cespedes, 4 yr, $110 mil). They are trying to trade Jay Bruce and/or Curtis Granderson. There is no room on the roster. OUT

4. Philadelphia – full speed rebuild, they may sign a table scrap or two but they are MacPhailing it. OUT

5. Washington – made their move when they traded for Adam Eaton. They had no room for Trea Turner and moved him to the infield, by trading Danny Espinosa. Now like the Marlins they are seeking a closer. OUT

 

NL Central

1. Chicago – (Jon Jay, 1 yr, $8 mil). They have no room. In fact they traded Jorge Soler for bullpen help because he had no spot on the 25-man. OUT

2. Cincinnati – You may have read this before. The Reds are rebuilding, and while they may sign someone on the cheap, they won't be top bidders for anyone listed. OUT

3. Milwaukee – (Eric Thames, 3 yr, $16 mil). They won the sweepstakes for perhaps the most interesting bat this off season, but yet again, they didn't break the bank for him. In a stunning move, they released NL home run champ Chris Carter simply because of the reasons I mentioned.... money and availability. 41 HR, 94 RBI, 274 TB and a 114 OPS+. Let that sink in. OUT

4. Pittsburgh – yet another team trying to trade away a bat, this time former MVP Andrew McCutchen, and they are having trouble like everyone else finding the right suitor. OUT

5. Saint Louis – (Dexter Fowler, 5 yr, $82.5 mil). They were a major player in the OF/1B market until they landed one of the biggest names on it. They are still considering another free agent add, but in the meantime are listening to offers for Matt Adams while expecting to move Matt Carpenter to first base. FENCE

 

NL West

1. Arizona – They are in spending purgatory after largely whiffing last year... SP Zack Grienke is making over a third of their entire payroll. Besides, they are set at 1B and OF. OUT

2. Colorado – (Ian Desmond, 5 yr, $70 mil). They are in the "move someone to sign someone" crowd but in this case they might actually be able to trade an outfielder in order to get Mark Trumbo or Edwin Encarnacion at 1B. Teams are in talks with them regarding both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon. It's a reasonable bet to say they will be signing one more bat. IN

3. Los Angeles – they spent their money re-signing their own in Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner, and they still need to address 2B. They are at their spending limit. OUT

4. San Diego – just an absolute mess right now, and teams are not dealing with them. They have zero major league contracts to free agents right now and I have no idea what they're doing. OUT (?)

5. San Francisco – they are looking for a bat for the bench, and did sign Mark Reynolds to a minor league deal – this does not preclude them signing someone else. But like the Indians and Rangers, it doesn't sound like it would be a large deal. They like the Dodgers and Yankees are concerned about the luxury tax and are letting all of their incumbent FA go including Angel Pagan. FENCE

 

CONCLUSION

I've given the who, what, where and why; I've listed twelve available free agents by wRC+ and mentioned seven more who all play the OF/1B/DH position, and gone over where every team sits in the market. Here are the results:

 

IN – Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Oakland, Texas, Toronto

FENCE – Saint Louis, San Francisco, Seattle

OUT (?) - Los Angeles (AL), San Diego

 

That's 11 out of 30 teams, and only six that I'm fairly certain will land some hitter of significance. On top of this, many teams are trying to trade OF/1B/DH types, such as the Yankees, Tigers, Pirates and Mets.

All this leads to good news for the Orioles. If nothing changes between now and January 1, they could get more than one of these guys on reasonable contracts, and several of the teams who jumped early will be looking at bad FA deals.

Great post, thanks for all the hard work . Very helpful.

[El Gordo]

51 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Gutierrez is a very under the radar player.  I think his injury history keeps the Orioles away but I think he could be really good here and cheap enough to allow other upgrades.

How much have his injuries hurt his defense. He used to be very good.

[bpilktree]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Gutierrez is a very under the radar player.  I think his injury history keeps the Orioles away but I think he could be really good here and cheap enough to allow other upgrades.

I like him and he hits lefties great.  I could deal with a Bourn and Gutierrez platoon in the outfield.  I also like Adam Lind for a bounce back year.  He struggled some this year at Seattle but we have seen before that is a tough place for hitters.  He would be another guy to platoon at DH with Mancini and he has very good OBP vs right handers over the last few years.  The only thing is you can't have all platoons anymore so I think if you add a platoon at right and have Kim, Rickard, and Tavarez as other outfielders then the DH spot would be Mancini's which I am fine with as well.

[Camden_yardbird]

The Orioles will not leave Mancini on an island.  I think they have back up plans.  Let's remember it was two years ago that Orioles got nothing out of the DH because their strategy was "let's leave this spot open to rest starters."

[Bahama O's Fan]

Now, the big question is, "Who fits us?"

[tntoriole]

13 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Dan Duquette has made it clear that the Orioles are getting an OF this off season, and no I don't think the Rule 5 pick counts – though Aneury Tavarez has a good chance to take Nolan Reimold's bench spot. He tends to be a fairly straightforward GM when it comes to public speaking. He said the team would be active in the Rule 5 draft and they were. He said he would sign a catcher before the holidays, and he got Wellington Castillo. So let us assume the Orioles are active in the market for a player that can play OF, and perhaps DH.

Like they are apt to do under Duquette, the Orioles are in a wait-and-see mode as the market for such batters develops. Duquette has tilted this in his favor in the past, signing the likes of Nelson Cruz and Pedro Alvarez to affordable 1 yr deals late into the winter. This year the market may be the best it's ever been under his tenure. The question is what do they do with it? Let's take a look at why this is happening.

First is the obvious, the question of money. Many teams are saying they are at or near their spending limit. This is due to two factors: (a) teams giving out contracts beyond their means in pay scale, and (b) teams unwilling to go into the luxury tax threshold in the new CBA, especially for several years in a row.

Case in point, look at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not long ago they were considered a bottomless pit of money thanks to new owner Mark Walter and his mega TV deal. They spent like madmen, pushing their payroll close to $300 million. Well, thanks to issues surrounding said TV deal, president Andrew Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi have methodically brought payroll down while trying to stay competitive. This story is part of a systemic problem in baseball where major market executives are just starting to realize our culture is phasing television out. There will be drastic changes in our future and how we consume major league baseball. So, even the mighty New York Yankees are culling their payroll to get under the tax threshold by 2018. For the record, this is good news for teams who have already balanced a tight budget for years – like say, the Indians – but it doesn't mean they can spend all that much either.

The second reason why the market is stagnating is the lack of open roster spots. A record 111 players hit 20 home runs or more last season, an average of 3.7 players a team. A sum of 132 players recorded 200 or more total bases. A total of 104 qualifying players OPSed at least .750, which incidentally is about what you needed for a 100 OPS+ last season.

For players primarily used for their bats – namely corner OF, 1B, and DH types – there are only so many spots available across 30 major league teams. While we aren't seeing the individual seasons we saw during the steroid era, the sheer number of good hitting players, both young and old, has scoring up across the league.

 

Money and availability are choking the market for hitters. For a more in-depth look, let's see where we stand right now, December 16, 2016:

 

Players unsigned (OF/1B/DH) by 2016 wRC+

134 Edwin Encarnacion

123 Mark Trumbo

122 Jose Bautista

117 Pedro Alvarez

117 Michael Saunders

114 Franklin Gutierrez

113 Mike Napoli

112 Chris Carter

105 Brandon Moss

105 Angel Pagan

104 Marlon Byrd

101 Logan Morrison

 

These are all players that produced above the 100 wRC+ line last year. The list doesn't even include proven players with down years such as Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, Austin Jackson, James Loney, Ben Revere, Rajai Davis and Chris Coghlan.

The Orioles have been linked to Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, Michael Saunders, Chris Carter and Angel Pagan at various times since the beginning of the off season. Edwin Encarnacion remains a looming specter for all teams.

 

Team-by-team then, who are left to sign these players?

 

AL East

1. Boston – (Mitch Moreland, 1 yr, $5.5 mil). Every indication is they're ready to roll with what they've got. Moreland helps fill in the void left by David Ortiz. A slimmed down Panda is back at 3B and they've got great youth in the OF. OUT

2. New York – (Matt Holliday, 1 yr, $13 mil). Holliday is their buy. They are looking for another reliever and must move salary to do so. They really want to be under the tax threshold next off season. OUT

3. Tampa Bay – (Wilson Ramos, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). I put Ramos here because any signing for Tampa is significant, and besides he may be eased back into catching. Tampa won't be serious bidders for anyone, but will probably eventually land one or two of these players on the cheap. OUT

4. Toronto – (Kendrys Morales, 3 yr, $33 mil / Steve Pearce, 2 yr, $12.5 mil). Toronto is moving on from the big fish, namely Edwin Encarnacion, though $11 mil a year for Morales looks like an overpay in this market. They are still looking for an OF and are probably in the same boat as Baltimore in this regard. They can spend, but not too much. IN

 

AL Central

1. Chicago – in the middle of a fire sale. They may grab a guy desperate to hang onto the majors but aren't considered contenders for anyone significant. OUT

2. Cleveland – they need someone to replace Mike Napoli, which might be Mike Napoli. They have offered a 1 yr deal to him as well as Michael Saunders and were in on Matt Holliday. They cannot however offer a "significant deal" to anyone. IN

3. Detroit – trying to trade away pieces and can't even do that in this market. J.D. Martinez can be had, and nobody wants to meet their asking price and pay for his salary. OUT

4. Kansas City – traded for their OF in Jorge Soler and are trying to figure out who else they can shed and who they should keep. They were even in preliminary talks with the Orioles about Jarrod Dyson. OUT

5. Minnesota – table scraps. The latest buzz is whether or not they trade their best player in Brian Dozier to the Dodgers. OUT

 

AL West

1. Houston – (Josh Reddick, 4 yr, $52 mil / Carlos Beltran, 1 yr, $16 mil). They are firmly looking at upgrading their pitching staff after plucking two hitters from the market. OUT

2. Los Angeles – honestly not sure about this team but they have huge contracts to Albert Pujols and Mike Trout, and acquired Cameron Maybin. OUT (?)

3. Oakland – (Matt Joyce, 2 yr, $11 mil). The Athletics are unexpected players in this market; they must be sensing good prices to be had, and are sending feelers out in several directions including free agents and trade. IN

4. Seattle – They are actively shopping Seth Smith. This may mean they need to move money, and perhaps they sign someone if Smith goes. I'll consider him a block then. They've kicked the tires on Mark Trumbo but the vast majority of their attention is on pitching right now. FENCE

5. Texas – (Carlos Gomez, 1 yr, $11.5 mil).  The Rangers are absolutely looking for another bat; however, they have repeatedly said they are at their spending limit. The Rangers are like the Indians in this regard. But they are active on the trade and FA fronts. IN

 

NL East

1. Atlanta – (Sean Rodriguez, 2 yr, $11.5 mil). In rebuild mode, the Braves are now signing the likes of Emilio Bonifacio and Reid Brignac. OUT

2. Miami – they do have money to spend, highlighted by their runs at Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but there is nothing going as far as position players. OUT

3. New York – (Yoenis Cespedes, 4 yr, $110 mil). They are trying to trade Jay Bruce and/or Curtis Granderson. There is no room on the roster. OUT

4. Philadelphia – full speed rebuild, they may sign a table scrap or two but they are MacPhailing it. OUT

5. Washington – made their move when they traded for Adam Eaton. They had no room for Trea Turner and moved him to the infield, by trading Danny Espinosa. Now like the Marlins they are seeking a closer. OUT

 

NL Central

1. Chicago – (Jon Jay, 1 yr, $8 mil). They have no room. In fact they traded Jorge Soler for bullpen help because he had no spot on the 25-man. OUT

2. Cincinnati – You may have read this before. The Reds are rebuilding, and while they may sign someone on the cheap, they won't be top bidders for anyone listed. OUT

3. Milwaukee – (Eric Thames, 3 yr, $16 mil). They won the sweepstakes for perhaps the most interesting bat this off season, but yet again, they didn't break the bank for him. In a stunning move, they released NL home run champ Chris Carter simply because of the reasons I mentioned.... money and availability. 41 HR, 94 RBI, 274 TB and a 114 OPS+. Let that sink in. OUT

4. Pittsburgh – yet another team trying to trade away a bat, this time former MVP Andrew McCutchen, and they are having trouble like everyone else finding the right suitor. OUT

5. Saint Louis – (Dexter Fowler, 5 yr, $82.5 mil). They were a major player in the OF/1B market until they landed one of the biggest names on it. They are still considering another free agent add, but in the meantime are listening to offers for Matt Adams while expecting to move Matt Carpenter to first base. FENCE

 

NL West

1. Arizona – They are in spending purgatory after largely whiffing last year... SP Zack Grienke is making over a third of their entire payroll. Besides, they are set at 1B and OF. OUT

2. Colorado – (Ian Desmond, 5 yr, $70 mil). They are in the "move someone to sign someone" crowd but in this case they might actually be able to trade an outfielder in order to get Mark Trumbo or Edwin Encarnacion at 1B. Teams are in talks with them regarding both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon. It's a reasonable bet to say they will be signing one more bat. IN

3. Los Angeles – they spent their money re-signing their own in Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner, and they still need to address 2B. They are at their spending limit. OUT

4. San Diego – just an absolute mess right now, and teams are not dealing with them. They have zero major league contracts to free agents right now and I have no idea what they're doing. OUT (?)

5. San Francisco – they are looking for a bat for the bench, and did sign Mark Reynolds to a minor league deal – this does not preclude them signing someone else. But like the Indians and Rangers, it doesn't sound like it would be a large deal. They like the Dodgers and Yankees are concerned about the luxury tax and are letting all of their incumbent FA go including Angel Pagan. FENCE

 

CONCLUSION

I've given the who, what, where and why; I've listed twelve available free agents by wRC+ and mentioned seven more who all play the OF/1B/DH position, and gone over where every team sits in the market. Here are the results:

 

IN – Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Oakland, Texas, Toronto

FENCE – Saint Louis, San Francisco, Seattle

OUT (?) - Los Angeles (AL), San Diego

 

That's 11 out of 30 teams, and only six that I'm fairly certain will land some hitter of significance. On top of this, many teams are trying to trade OF/1B/DH types, such as the Yankees, Tigers, Pirates and Mets.

All this leads to good news for the Orioles. If nothing changes between now and January 1, they could get more than one of these guys on reasonable contracts, and several of the teams who jumped early will be looking at bad FA deals.

Outstanding post.  I hope you are right.  Encarnacion on one year deal and Pagan or Revere for right would be excellent.   Dan's operating style may really, really play out well this offseason. 

[Mitch Connor]

Any chance using Brach and putting a deal together for Puig?