Update

[bej6789]

great great news man....

[33rd&Ellerslie]

Though Bedard is 28, I would be very reluctant to deal him. Even though the guy doesn't go deep enough into games, he is still not really replaceable. Just looking at this past year's free agents he is at least as good as if not better than Zito, Meche, Dice-K, and Lilly. You still have him cheap, though he will become more expensive. There just aren't enough guys of his caliber to justify dealing him. Plus, Bedard takes pressure off the rest of the starters by being the number one guy. If he were about to become a free agent, I would feel differently about this.

I also would tend to favor keeping Roberts. Though he is 30, he is still is worth his contract. I was a little disturbed by his comments recently, but overall still think he is a good guy who is a little frustrated. With the right mix of players, he would set a good example of hustle, baserunning, and working counts.

Everyone else I am fine with getting rid of with the one possible exception of Ramon. I keep Ramon if Mazzone thinks he is a good part of the reason for the improvement in the starters. Replace all of the old guys with young guys and see what happens.

Agree, Balt, but my worry is that all the "old guys" don't have enough value to get us the pieces we need. You have taken Ramon, Markakis, Roberts, Bedard out of the equation, leaving Millar, Mora, Tejada, Payton, Patterson, Trax, Guthrie, Burres, DCab, and the stellar bench we have aquired. Other than Tejada I don't think any of those players get you a premiere prospect. I fear we are going to have to part with one of the two, Bedard or Roberts to get the value prospects we need. I hope I am wrong and we can pull of something amazing without giving up any of those guys!

[bej6789]

The sun has an article up that was timed in the 11 o'clock hour recently that says the Orioles haven't discussed contract figures with Girardi... can all that really be done quickly?

[baltfan]

Look at it a different way. Look at what other talented pitchers brought back in return when they were traded and ask yourself if those teams are better off for having made the trade. Almost always the team that trades the pitcher comes out way ahead.

Pitchers like Bedard who are this far from free agency are almost never traded. More often than not they are extended and never hit the market. The only pitchers I can remember recently being traded in a similar circumstance to Bedard were Mulder and Hudson. The Mulder trade worked out great because they got Haren back. The Hudson trade was a disaster.

The other thing to consider is that teams aren't giving up their best prospects anymore. The best offer that the Nationals got for Soriano last year was supposedly Kevin Slowey. They couldn't get Garza. Also remember that Beane couldn't get a fair offer for Zito last year. Getting good value for Bedard will be very tough.

[ChaosLex]

The sun has an article up that was timed in the 11 o'clock hour recently that says the Orioles haven't discussed contract figures with Girardi... can all that really be done quickly?

I saw that too. I'm wondering if the front office is spreading disinformation.

[Sports Guy]

Pitchers like Bedard who are this far from free agency are almost never traded. More often than not they are extended and never hit the market. The only pitchers I can remember recently being traded in a similar circumstance to Bedard were Mulder and Hudson. The Mulder trade worked out great because they got Haren back. The Hudson trade was a disaster.

The other thing to consider is that teams aren't giving up their best prospects anymore. The best offer that the Nationals got for Soriano last year was supposedly Kevin Slowey. They couldn't get Garza. Also remember that Beane couldn't get a fair offer for Zito last year. Getting good value for Bedard will be very tough.

Soriano was a rental player and it is generally known that position players GENERALLY fetch more in the offseason and pitchers fetch more at the deadline.

[baltfan]

Agree, Balt, but my worry is that all the "old guys" don't have enough value to get us the pieces we need. You have taken Ramon, Markakis, Roberts, Bedard out of the equation, leaving Millar, Mora, Tejada, Payton, Patterson, Trax, Guthrie, Burres, DCab, and the stellar bench we have aquired. Other than Tejada I don't think any of those players get you a premiere prospect. I fear we are going to have to part with one of the two, Bedard or Roberts to get the value prospects we need. I hope I am wrong and we can pull of something amazing without giving up any of those guys!

You never can tell. Look at what Pierzynski netted the Twins versus what Hudson netted the A's. Plus, you are not going to get a team's top prospect for either of these guys. Keeping guys like Roberts and Bedard with their affordable contracts around won't hurt you. They can always be moved later.

[Sports Guy]

You never can tell. Look at what Pierzynski netted the Twins versus what Hudson netted the A's. Plus, you are not going to get a team's top prospect for either of these guys. Keeping guys like Roberts and Bedard with their affordable contracts around won't hurt you. They can always be moved later.

For who? Bedard and Roberts??

[33rd&Ellerslie]

You never can tell. Look at what Pierzynski netted the Twins versus what Hudson netted the A's. Plus, you are not going to get a team's top prospect for either of these guys. Keeping guys like Roberts and Bedard with their affordable contracts around won't hurt you. They can always be moved later.

Balt, I think you and I agree on a ton of things here, most of which is that if these two guys can't get us top prospects, then the rest of the lot certainly can't. I want to keep them, I really do but we all know we need parts, CF, 3B if Rowell isn't ready, 1B with POP, heck we all know what we need without me listing it. If those two can't get you top prospects then we need to be satisfied with addition by subtraction, losing bad contracts (Baez comes to mind) and being a player in the FA market. I have said since I started posting that so many of you are far, far more knowledgable than I am, but I think you and I see the same things and both hope that we get what we need.

[baltfan]

Soriano was a rental player and it is generally known that position players GENERALLY fetch more in the offseason and pitchers fetch more at the deadline.

We may need to adjust the strategy here. Just as Beane found that OBP was being undervalued and then later defense, I suspect that prospects have gone from being undervalued to possibly overvalued. That doesn't mean that I advocate dealing away our prospects, but it does mean that it may be very difficult to build a team based upon trading for prospects.

Take a look at major trades that have occurred over the last few years. How often has the team dealing the name player gotten the better end of the deal. Very seldom. Just looking at 2004 and 2005 (gives prospects time to develop), here are some of the major trades.

Diamondbacks Send: SP Randy Johnson

Yankees Send: SP Javier Vazquez, SP Brad Halsey, C Dioner Navarro and $9 million

1/10/2005

Diamondbacks Send: C Dioner Navarro, P William Juarez, P Danny Muegge and P Beltran Perez

Dodgers Send: OF Shawn Green and $10 million

12/16/2004

Braves Send: OF Charles Thomas, SP Dan Meyer and RP Juan Cruz

Athletics Send: SP Tim Hudson

12/13/2004

White Sox Send: OF Carlos Lee

Brewers Send: OF Scott Podsednik, RP Luis Vizcaino and 1B Travis Hinton

11/19/2004

Angels Send: OF Jose Guillen

Nationals Send: OF Juan Rivera and IF Maicer Izturis

1/10/2005

Dodgers Send: OF Shawn Green and $10 million

Diamondbacks Send: C Dioner Navarro, P William Juarez, P Danny Muegge and P Beltran Perez

12/18/2004

Athletics Send: SP Mark Mulder

Cardinals Send: SP Dan Haren, RP Kiko Calero and C Daric Barton

6/8/2005

Phillies Send: IF Placido Polanco

Tigers Send: RP Ugueth Urbina and IF Ramon Martinez

7/31/2004

Diamondbacks Send: OF Steve Finley and C Brent Mayne

Dodgers Send: C Koyie Hill, OF Reggie Abercrombie and SP Bill Murphy

7/31/2004

Red Sox Send: SS Nomar Garciaparra, OF Matt Murton and cash to Chicago Cubs

Cubs Send: SS Alex S. Gonzalez, 2B Brendan Harris and P Francis Beltran to Montreal Expos and sent P Justin Jones to the Minnesota Twins

Expos Send: SS Orlando Cabrera to Red Sox

Twins Send: 1B Doug Mientkiewicz to Red Sox

7/30/2004

Marlins Send: SP Brad Penny, 1B Hee Seop Choi and SP Bill Murphy

Dodgers Send: C Paul Lo Duca, OF Juan Encarnacion and RP Guillermo Mota

6/25/2004

Royals Send: OF Carlos Beltran to Houston Astros

Astros Send: RP Octavio Dotel and approx. $1 million to Oakland Athletics, C John Buck to Kansas City Royals

Athletics Send: SP Mike Wood and 3B Mark Teahen to Kansas City Royals

7/18/2004

Expos Send: OF Carl Everett

White Sox Send: SP Jon Rauch and RP Gary Majewski

7/30/2004

Mets Send: 3B Ty Wigginton, P Matt Peterson and 3B Jose Bautista

Pirates Send: SP Kris Benson and 2B Jeff Keppinger

7/30/2004

Mets Send: SP Scott Kazmir and P Jose Diaz

Devil Rays Send: SP Victor Zambrano and P Bartolome Fortunato

7/31/2004

Yankees Send: SP Jose Contreras and cash

White Sox Send: SP Esteban Loaiza

As you can see, in all of those transactions the only prospects that really blossomed were Kazmir (everyone knew this was a steal), Haren, Buck, and Teahan. The vast majority of the time the team acquiring the "name" player actually made out better.

THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT WE SHOULDN'T BLOW IT UP. IT IS TO SAY THAT IT IS FAR FROM A SURE THING THAT WHAT WE GET BACK WILL TRANSFORM THIS CLUB. THAT IS WHY I SAY KEEP BEDARD AND ROBERTS.

[baltfan]

For who? Bedard and Roberts??

Bedard or Roberts. What I mean is that teams are not giving up Matt Garza or Phillip Hughes or Justin Upton or Tim Lincecum. Ask Beane, he was stonewalled for Zito. Ask the Nationals about the offers they received for Soriano.

[bej6789]

I think Zito is a different situation than both Roberts and Bedard, as is Soriano.

With Alfonso, it was at best a half year rental. He's in a contract year, and teams just flat out weren't going to give up the farm for a 1/2 year rental. As for Zito, I'm not too sure, either. The same thing can be said for him as well, on top of the fact that his stats were declining as the time in which he was cy young worthy became further and further in the past. With Bedard, you're getting a pitcher who's 28... at least 3 years of service left before free agency and he's up there in leading the league in k's. He's not the #1 pitcher on alot of teams, however he's got front end of the rotation stuff. He can definatley net more than Soriano and Zito in my opinion.

As for Roberts, I'd love to not be having this conversation. If we get Girardi (god I hope we do). Roberts is the ideal type of player Joe loves. Hard working and can hit. I don't think teams will be willing to give up as much for him as Bedard. I think Roberts is more on par with what Soriano would've net last year. Not in terms of talent, but more in terms of signability.

[section18]

Has everyone noticed Roberts inspired play since Perlozzo was let go as manager? His comments since then have not been favorable to our managerial carousel over the years. I have not been happy with him the past ten days or so since he went into his funk. He is now playing with a purpose and looks like one of the best leadoff men in baseball. We keep him.

The whole team is more inspired. I would move Tejada tonight if I could and Hernandez wouldn't be far behind with Mora. Trachsel, Payton, Bradford and Williamson can be packaged for prospects that could be included in a Crawford trade. I think SG and I will not let Crawford go off of our radar screen. He would be perfect in left for us and is already signed to a multi -year affordable contract. We give Tampa what they want and if it takes including or substituting Loewen for Cabrera you do it. Crawford in left....Hunter or Jones in CF (FA signing) and Markakis would give you possibly a gold glove outfield.

Everyone knows how I feel about Bedard. He is a super talent and definitely one of the top ten pitchers in the AL. We can't lose him for draft picks in two years to the Blue Jays. I would want a top hitter and two top prospects for him with one being a former first round pitcher drafted in the last two years. Hopefully we can find another Guthrie.

This is really an exciting time for the Orioles and their fans as it appears everyone is energized. The streak ends and we finally get a win tonight in San Diego against a team with an excellent pitching staff. Seven runs tonight and six last night. I think our seven runs is the most scored against San Diego this year. The clock is ticking......and changes are coming.

[ijoshyounot]

Just to respond to the actual thread. I'm thinking it might be possible that Girardi is feeling reluctant to maybe try to lobby for a better contract, get us to overpay a bit. Could just be bargaining, I can't wait for this to just be announced and over with.

[Mad Mark]

I know, I know...SMALL SAMPLE SIZE...but, my heart is not going to break if Dave Trembley runs this team for the rest of the year.

He isn't the flavor of the month, but appears to be stressing discipline and playing the game right. He's certainly willing to try batting orders we haven't seen before.

Also, there's a vast area between "blow it up" and "stay the course". You can "retool" or "reload". There are guys on this team worth keeping (one of them is tonight's starting pitcher) and I'm pretty sure McPhail is going to come to the same conclusion.

On a completely unrelated note: are the Orioles the worst draw in baseball, or do people in SD just not care? I know it was a weeknight game, but there were quite a few empty seats in Petco Wednesday...to watch the first place Padres!