[Fangraphs] Top 18 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, ChuckS said:

If these guys earn second half promotions to Bowie and are dominant there I would not be surprised to see them starting for us late in the season and maybe in the playoffs just based on need and the lack of viable options.  Unlikely but certainly possible.  

There are plenty of other starters ahead of them right now, but other than maybe Chris Lee there is not much to get excited about and two or three of our big league rotation spots could be a revolving door.  

Akin could be a better version of Wade Miley come September.  

I doubt these scenarios.   Maybe we see one or both in September 2018.    Maybe.  

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not surprised.  They have done a heck of a job rebuilding and didn't have to hit rock bottom to do it.  For all the pride some folks have in the O's not having a losing season recently when was the last time the Yankees did?

It's been about 25 years.    But not because their farm system has been good for most of that time.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It's been about 25 years.    But not because their farm system has been good for most of that time.   

Didn't say it was.  Just that they were able to rebuild the farm without decimating the major league team, which seems to be the preferred strategy these days.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't say it was.  Just that they were able to rebuild the farm without decimating the major league team, which seems to be the preferred strategy these days.

They played their hand very well last year.    And they've consistently invested in the international market.   

[ArtVanDelay]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not surprised.  They have done a heck of a job rebuilding and didn't have to hit rock bottom to do it.  For all the pride some folks have in the O's not having a losing season recently when was the last time the Yankees did?

Since before I was born.  I'm hoping to see a Yankees losing season for the first time this year. 

If it doesn't happen this year, I could easily see it going on another 5+ years.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Since before I was born.  I'm hoping to see a Yankees losing season for the first time this year. 

If it doesn't happen this year, I could easily see it going on another 5+ years.

When Harper and Machado hit their decline phase?

[Frobby]

This article is a must read.    Really nice, detailed reports on all our top prospects.

Just to give a little more perspective, Longenhagen is listing anyone he ranks as 40 or above on an 80 point scale.   The O's have 18 of those guys (including Santander and Tavarez, who we may not be able to keep; the Yankees have 33.    But that's not the worst of it.    Here's how he ranks the players on this list:

60 - Yankees 1, Orioles 0

55 - Yankees 4, Orioles 0

50 - Yankees 3, Orioles 1

45 - Yankees 9, Orioles 4

40 - Yankees 16, Orioles 13

There's so little high-end talent in our system.    

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

This article is a must read.    Really nice, detailed reports on all our top prospects.

Just to give a little more perspective, Longenhagen is listing anyone he ranks as 40 or above on an 80 point scale.   The O's have 18 of those guys (including Santander and Tavarez, who we may not be able to keep; the Yankees have 33.    But that's not the worst of it.    Here's how he ranks the players on this list:

60 - Yankees 1, Orioles 0

55 - Yankees 4, Orioles 0

50 - Yankees 3, Orioles 1

45 - Yankees 9, Orioles 4

40 - Yankees 16, Orioles 13

There's so little high-end talent in our system.    

That could certainly change if we are out of it in July.  Not that I'm rooting for that, but it's a little salivating to think of what we could get back for Machado, Britton, Jones, and others.  

All of those guys are going to have so much less value (in trade) at the deadline in 2018.  

[Can_of_corn]

7 hours ago, ChuckS said:

That could certainly change if we are out of it in July.  Not that I'm rooting for that, but it's a little salivating to think of what we could get back for Machado, Britton, Jones, and others.  

All of those guys are going to have so much less value (in trade) at the deadline in 2018.  

I'm not sold that simply being out of contention in July would trigger the sell off you are imagining.

[ChuckS]

Me either. It should though. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Yeah, well how much of the rebuilding was through the draft?

 

They threw a boatload of money at the Latin American Amateurs a couple of years ago, outbid everyone for Chapman and turned him into Gleyber Torres, etc.    They've made some good decisions.   There is strength in numbers.

I think they deserve a ton of credit for buying extremely low on Chapman then selling extremely high.  As for the international players, is something other than the owner stopping the Orioles from doing the same thing? 

[Enjoy Terror]

21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not surprised.  They have done a heck of a job rebuilding and didn't have to hit rock bottom to do it.  For all the pride some folks have in the O's not having a losing season recently when was the last time the Yankees did?

The Yankees have been nailing the draft and also have a couple international signings that have panned out.

One thing they do that the Orioles don't do is sign and trade players. Chapman, McCann, and Miller trades account for four of their big prospects. Huge monetary investments they simply flipped for prospects. The O's would be wise to do some of that.

Instead every trade deadline we're buyers of garbage players.

[jabba72]

And has been bad in left field. Scouts who saw him in the Fall League think he might need to move to first base and questioned his bat speed.

 

The above is about DJ Stewart. I'd like to know whose idea it was to draft him, because it seems like he only looked at his walks and skipped everything else.  

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You mentioned how they didn't have to hit rock bottom to rebuild.   Most teams that hit rock bottom need those top 5 draft picks to get impact players from the draft.    What impact players have the Yankees gotten from the draft in the last 5 years?

Yes, they've done well by spending big on FA's and then, this past year, turning them into prospects and they also hit on a few international guys as well.    I suppose every team could do what they Yankees do.   It's not like the Yankees have more money than everyone else.

Bentances is the first that comes to mind.  Not sure if you consider Judge or Austin impact players at this point, but they are draftees that were on the roster last season.

[ChuckS]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You mentioned how they didn't have to hit rock bottom to rebuild.   Most teams that hit rock bottom need those top 5 draft picks to get impact players from the draft.    What impact players have the Yankees gotten from the draft in the last 5 years?

Yes, they've done well by spending big on FA's and then, this past year, turning them into prospects and they also hit on a few international guys as well.    I suppose every team could do what they Yankees do.   It's not like the Yankees have more money than everyone else.

This is all true, but we could very well be in position to do what the Yankees did.  Our pending free agents in 2018 and 2019 have more value than the guys who the Yankees dealt last year.  We should be able to get back a better return if we aren't contending in July.  Machado, Britton, and Jones probably net you 5-6 top 100 prospects, conservatively and likely some young major league ready players with value.  They aren't the only guys with value either.  

Manny may need to be traded regardless.  I don't think we can let him go to FA.