Trade Cabrera after his next dominant start

[Zaimoku]

We have Olson coming up and he may be ready to assume a spot in the rotation. Behind him, Beato and Erbe look sharp.　

Beato is in low A, which means he's probably at least three years away. Erbe is still in high A, and has an ERA of more than 5.00. Sharp is not the word I would use to describe that.

Pitching prospects being what they are, we'll be lucky if one of those two ever sees the major leagues, much less holds down a rotation spot.

[Sports Guy]

Prior for Cabrera.

An injury questionmark for a will-he-ever-figure-this-@$%*-out questionmark.

Maybe time with Leo would bring out the real Mark Prior.

Am i the only one who laughs at the notion that Prior is just some "injury question mark"?

[Fairfax Bird]

Am i the only one who laughs at the notion that Prior is just some "injury question mark"?

Yeah, that is pretty funny. I'll take the guy who throws 96 and can't find the plate over the guy who now throws 86 and then can't pitch for 3 months. There is no question about whether Prior is injured. He is.

[Aberdeener]

I'm assuming the adjustments DCab has made are at Leo's behest. I would love to know what his appraisal of Danny is at this point. I would trade him for Rios but not for anything less.

That's insane. Rios is about to play in his second All-Star game.

[davearm]

Am i the only one who laughs at the notion that Prior is just some "injury question mark"?

Apparently you missed the news that Prior underwent surgery in April. The mysterious arm issues he's struggled with for however long have finally been addressed by the surgery.

At this point, he's either going to recover and be great, recover and be serviceable, or not recover at all.

That's pretty much the textbook definition of an injury risk.

Cabrera faces pretty similar odds as Prior does for being great, being serviceable, or fading away.

[davearm]

Yeah, that is pretty funny. I'll take the guy who throws 96 and can't find the plate over the guy who now throws 86 and then can't pitch for 3 months. There is no question about whether Prior is injured. He is.

Prior is injured?

Stop the Presses!

At least Prior is in the midst of doing something that may allow him to overcome the issues that are holding him back.

Can't say that about Cabrera.

[Sports Guy]

Dave, for you to think Prior has any trade value at all is a complete and utter joke.

[Frobby]

Here is how I see Cabrera at this point. He's a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter who has the potential to be more than that. Two years ago I would have said the odds of him developing into a no. 1-2 starter were 50%. Now I would say the odds of that happening are 20% or less.

It's not like Cabrera is terrible or worthless. There's some vallue at using him as the no. 4-5 starter, holding on to him, and hoping that he figures it out some day and becomes a no. 1-2. He's a not a free agent until after the 2010 season so we can afford to be patient.

At the same time, he's not so valuable that I wouldn't trade him for a good, young offensive player. Not a guy who might be good (like Cabrera might be good) but someone who is pretty good and could get better.

[bgfield]

In some rotations he might be good as a #5 starter, but we've already got four guys who've proved they can pitch a hell of a lot better than him (Bedard, Loewen, Guthrie, Burres). It's up in the air if Guthrie and Burres can maintain the success they've found, but at least they have found success. Then we've got two other guys - Penn and Olson - who have high ceilings and who may be capable of pitching better than Daniel now.

He needs to be traded. We simply don't have room in this rotation for a guy like Daniel.

[Frobby]

In some rotations he might be good as a #5 starter, but we've already got four guys who've proved they can pitch a hell of a lot better than him (Bedard, Loewen, Guthrie, Burres). It's up in the air if Guthrie and Burres can maintain the success they've found, but at least they have found success. Then we've got two other guys - Penn and Olson - who have high ceilings and who may be capable of pitching better than Daniel now.

He needs to be traded. We simply don't have room in this rotation for a guy like Daniel.

I think you've overstated the strength of our rotation.

- Loewen hadn't pitched enough to "prove" anything. After a 5.37 ERA last year, his ERA was good in the first month this year but he was barely averaging 5 IP/start because he was walking so many batters and having high pitch counts. Now he's coming off an injury and won't have pitched in nearly a year. I still have very high hopes for him, but to have any certainty that he will be healthy and better than Cabrera next year is foolish IMO.

- Burres can't "prove" anything in 9 starts, and Guthrie can't "prove" anything in 12 starts. Just for example, a couple of years ago an Oriole rookie pitcher stepped into the rotation and had a 3.38 ERA after 9 starts and a 2.90 ERA after 12 starts, including 8 quality starts in those 12 starts. His name? Daniel Cabrera. What did he "prove?"

- Penn has gotten torched in his major league experience and has missed most of the year.

- How Olson will do at the major league level is a complete unknown.

Now, I happen to agree that Cabrera is expendable in the right deal, but I would not jsut assume we have 5 or more pitchers who are better than he is.

[higgybaby]

I still believe that he will be the dominant pitcher he haas the potential to be.

[drarray]

If you can get something good offensively for him that is under our control for at least 3 yrs move him.

[bgfield]

I think you've overstated the strength of our rotation.

- Loewen hadn't pitched enough to "prove" anything. After a 5.37 ERA last year, his ERA was good in the first month this year but he was barely averaging 5 IP/start because he was walking so many batters and having high pitch counts. Now he's coming off an injury and won't have pitched in nearly a year. I still have very high hopes for him, but to have any certainty that he will be healthy and better than Cabrera next year is foolish IMO.

- Burres can't "prove" anything in 9 starts, and Guthrie can't "prove" anything in 12 starts. Just for example, a couple of years ago an Oriole rookie pitcher stepped into the rotation and had a 3.38 ERA after 9 starts and a 2.90 ERA after 12 starts, including 8 quality starts in those 12 starts. His name? Daniel Cabrera. What did he "prove?"

- Penn has gotten torched in his major league experience and has missed most of the year.

- How Olson will do at the major league level is a complete unknown.

Now, I happen to agree that Cabrera is expendable in the right deal, but I would not jsut assume we have 5 or more pitchers who are better than he is.

Definitely we have some question marks in the rotation, but at this point I think those question marks deserve to be looked at more than Cabrera. Loewen started this year off strong (even though he still walked a lot of batters and didn't go deep into games, the injury may have been a factor). Burres and Guthrie, like I said, may well regress to what is more expected of them, but even if they pitch to 4.00-4.50 ERA's, in my opinion, that's more than what we'll ever get out of Daniel Cabrera.

As for Penn and Olson, they are, again, people who deserve more of a look than Daniel. Danny hasn't proven anything in his 3+ years in the majors except that he can have a dominant start here and there mixed with a lot of bad ones. Olson's been consistent throughout his career, and I wouldn't be surprised if he hardly misses a step when jumping to the major league level. As for Penn, well, who knows why he got torched so bad last year. I'd still prefer to see him pitch over Danny at this point.

[ColumbiaOriole]

Why would we get rid of him now when his value is low? If we are so fed up with him, what makes you think anyone will give up something of value for Daniel? He is obviously very talented but also very inconsistent and may never put it all together. People around the league know this and would probably be wary about giving up anything good for him. Also, as for the opening post, it's laughable to think that one dominant start would affect his trade value that much. I think we're better off holding onto him rather than trading him for whatever low return we'd get for him now. I'm no expert on trades but I can't imagine his value is very high right now...obviously if the right deal comes along we should move him but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

[Frobby]

Definitely we have some question marks in the rotation, but at this point I think those question marks deserve to be looked at more than Cabrera. Loewen started this year off strong (even though he still walked a lot of batters and didn't go deep into games, the injury may have been a factor). Burres and Guthrie, like I said, may well regress to what is more expected of them, but even if they pitch to 4.00-4.50 ERA's, in my opinion, that's more than what we'll ever get out of Daniel Cabrera.

As for Penn and Olson, they are, again, people who deserve more of a look than Daniel. Danny hasn't proven anything in his 3+ years in the majors except that he can have a dominant start here and there mixed with a lot of bad ones. Olson's been consistent throughout his career, and I wouldn't be surprised if he hardly misses a step when jumping to the major league level. As for Penn, well, who knows why he got torched so bad last year. I'd still prefer to see him pitch over Danny at this point.

Loewen and Penn are non-factors for 2007. We can make room for Olson (and have) without moving Cabrera.

As to 2008, I'd rather have competition for the rotation than just hand spots to unproven guys. That said, I'd move Cabrera if we can get something else we need more.