Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[ScGO's]

24 minutes ago, theocean said:

He looks way less athletic at the plate and first base. Also, you can just look at him and see he has absolutely no confidence out there. It's almost like he has the yips.

That's what I thought during that swinging bunt with 2 strikes

[Nite]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Chris Davis has seen 56 fastballs of 92mph of greater this year.

31 were called strikes, fouls, or swinging strikes.

5 were put in play, none were pulled or hit into the shift.

The hardest hit ball against 92+ velocity was 87mph.

 

I wonder what his actual bat speed is now vs when he "earned" this contract. Wouldn't be surprised with the injuries he had that he's lost a few MPH on the bat speed, which is causing him to be late and also have no confidence thus the not even swinging.

[amdcpus]

There's nothing I'd like more than for Davis to at least become an average hitter. Seems like a good guy, just can't seem to figure it out though.

[Luke-OH]

To add to the narrative of him not being able to hit fastballs anymore.

In 2017, he put 108 fastballs into play. Only 24 were pulled. Of those pulled, only 1 classified as solidly hit or barreled.

So to make that clear he only pulled one fastball with authority the entire season! It was in a 3-0 count as well.

[interloper]

44 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Chris Davis has seen 56 fastballs of 92mph of greater this year.

31 were called strikes, fouls, or swinging strikes.

5 were put in play, none were pulled or hit into the shift.

The hardest hit ball against 92+ velocity was 87mph.

 

There we go. That's some interesting data. Thanks!

[interloper]

33 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

To add to the narrative of him not being able to hit fastballs anymore.

In 2017, he put 108 fastballs into play. Only 24 were pulled. Of those pulled, only 1 classified as solidly hit or barreled.

So to make that clear he only pulled one fastball with authority the entire season! It was in a 3-0 count as well.

Wow that's.... pretty incredible actually. 

[interloper]

35 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

To add to the narrative of him not being able to hit fastballs anymore.

In 2017, he put 108 fastballs into play. Only 24 were pulled. Of those pulled, only 1 classified as solidly hit or barreled.

So to make that clear he only pulled one fastball with authority the entire season! It was in a 3-0 count as well.

Is this all available on fangraphs?

[Enjoy Terror]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Is this all available on fangraphs?

I don't think any of that is.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

To add to the narrative of him not being able to hit fastballs anymore.

In 2017, he put 108 fastballs into play. Only 24 were pulled. Of those pulled, only 1 classified as solidly hit or barreled.

So to make that clear he only pulled one fastball with authority the entire season! It was in a 3-0 count as well.

Curious, what are the comparable numbers for 2015/16?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Is this all available on fangraphs?

I’m guessing this comes from baseballsavant.com.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m guessing this comes from baseballsavant.com.

Thanks.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Thanks.

Don’t thank me unless I’m right, because I’m not sure. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Don’t thank me unless I’m right, because I’m not sure. 

Looks like that's right, I'm messing with it now. 

[nadecir]

 

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Curious, what are the comparable numbers for 2015/16?

SI posted a couple of good articles that suggested that Chris Davis would not be worth his contract during the time he was a free agent in late 2015- early 2016.  At that time, they suggested he was might be in for a rapid decline due to low contact rates.  The second article said that it would be unlikely he would be worth what the Orioles paid for him, but even their low-value projection looks rosy at this point.

Quote

Davis increased his walk rate every year he spent with Orioles, but his contact rates have actually gotten worse—from 69.1% in 2012 to 67.1 in '13 to 63.6 in his disappointing '14 campaign and an only slightly better 64.4 this past season. The question then becomes: If Davis is struggling to make contact now, when his bat speed is near its peak, what happens when his bat inevitably slows down with age? The answer is unlikely to be a gradual decline and more likely to be a quick collapse in his value akin to what we’ve seen from Ryan Howard...

https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/14/whats-he-really-worth-chris-davis-free-agent-value
 

Quote

To correct for what would be an extreme outlier of a career path, I ran Davis through the system a second time, accelerating his decline. I did this not only because that career path seemed extremely unlikely, but because there was something about Davis’s game that gave me good reason to expect a more dramatic decline: his contact rates. Davis made contact with just 64.4% of the pitches he swung at in 2015 and his career contact rate is just 66%. None of the other nine men to hit 40 or more home runs in 2015 (Davis led the majors with 47) made contact less than 69% of the time they swung the bat last year. Fielder, the most free-swinging of the three stars Boras used as comparisons for Davis, made contact with 76% of the pitches at which he swung at prior to reaching free agency. My own search for a similar combination of big-time power and poor contract rates turned up a far more appropriate and alarming comparison for Davis: fellow big-money first baseman Ryan Howard, whose contact rate through his age-29 season was an identical 66%.

1

1

Quote

Howard compiled 17.0 bWAR in his 20s, but has thus far been below replacement level in the aggregate in his thirties. He’s obviously an extreme example whose value is further undermined by his poor play in the field, which should be less of a problem for the comparatively slick-fielding Davis. Nonetheless, he serves as a loud reminder of how quickly things can go south for a hitter who struggles to make sufficient contact. At the age of 29, Howard hit .279/.360/.571 (141 OPS+) with 45 home runs, a contact rate of 66.4% and a strikeout rate of 26.5% (K/PA). Davis in 2015 hit .262/.361/.562 (146 OPS+) with 47 home runs, a contact rate of 64.4% and a strikeout rate of 31.0%.

Re-running Davis through the WHRW formula with an accelerated decline (subtracting 0.8 bWAR per season rather than 0.5 bWAR as in the initial projection) resulted in a maximum value of $107.2 million over six years with Davis dipping below replacement level in his age-36 season.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/16/baltimore-orioles-chris-davis-free-agency-new-contract

[Luke-OH]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Curious, what are the comparable numbers for 2015/16?

 

In 2015.

178 FB in play.

44 pulled FB

2 well hit pulled FB

In 2016. 

156 FB in play

33 pulled FB

3 we’ll hit pulled FB

 

After looking more, probably more telling is his well hit fastballs to any part of the field by year.

In 2017 - 27

In 2016 - 38

In 2015 - 55

From baseball savant.