If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, atomic said:

You can see when your ceiling is Steve Garvey you have a hard time justifying the pick.  As Garvey career is comparable to someone like Nick Markakis or Harold Baines.  

When Garvey was active I think almost everyone assumed he was a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame.  He got MVP votes almost every year for a decade.  Then the information revolution started and folks realized that you probably shouldn't be getting MVP votes in a year where you had eight homers, 24 walks and grounded into 25 double plays.  Even if you played every game and charmed the pants of every woman in southern California.

[BohKnowsBmore]

50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I didn’t say ceiling, I said most likely outcome.   There’s a huge difference between those two things.    

Was going to say this exact thing.  Glad you hit it already.

[Frobby]

The way I see it, you judge the success of the pick by whether you got a true impact player.   People are saying Rutschman is the most obvious no. 1 pick since Harper, but Harper hasn’t been the best player in his own draft class so far.    He’s actually fourth, behind Chris Sale (43.6), Manny Machado (35.2) and Christian Yelich (29.4).     Still, I’m sure the Nats are satisfied with how that pick turned out.    If we get 30ish wins out of our pick during the six years he’s under team control, I won’t sweat the fact that some other team got 40 from some other player.

[atomic]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The way I see it, you judge the success of the pick by whether you got a true impact player.   People are saying Rutschman is the most obvious no. 1 pick since Harper, but Harper hasn’t been the best player in his own draft class so far.    He’s actually fourth, behind Chris Sale (43.6), Manny Machado (35.2) and Christian Yelich (29.4).     Still, I’m sure the Nats are satisfied with how that pick turned out.    If we get 30ish wins out of our pick during the six years he’s under team control, I won’t sweat the fact that some other team got 40 from some other player.

But Harper has been successful.  No one is saying you are definitely getting the best player in the draft.  We are saying he has the most likely chance of being a great player and the least likely chance of being a player who provides nothing..  So you don't end up with a Delmon Young, Tim Beckham or Mark Appel. 

Was Harper better than Jameson Taillon who was picked #2 overall that year?

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, atomic said:

But Harper has been successful.  No one is saying you are definitely getting the best player in the draft.  We are saying he has the most likely chance of being a great player and the least likely chance of being a player who provides nothing..  So you don't end up with a Delmon Young, Tim Beckham or Mark Appel. 

Was Harper better than Jameson Taillon who was picked #2 overall that year?

Yes.   Are we actually arguing about anything here?    I was just explaining what I’d consider a successful pick.   That’s not necessarily the same thing as the “right” pick.   Ben McDonald was the “right” pick at 1-1.   I can’t criticize the pick, and it’s not like he was a complete disaster.   But I don’t think I’d call him a “successful” 1-1 pick.   In hindsight, I’d rather have gone with the right handed, one dimensional first baseman who was picked 7th (Frank Thomas).    

Harper, to me was the right pick, and a successful pick.    Just not the most  successful pick.    

[atomic]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.   Are we actually arguing about anything here?    I was just explaining what I’d consider a successful pick.   That’s not necessarily the same thing as the “right” pick.   Ben McDonald was the “right” pick at 1-1.   I can’t criticize the pick, and it’s not like he was a complete disaster.   But I don’t think I’d call him a “successful” 1-1 pick.   In hindsight, I’d rather have gone with the right handed, one dimensional first baseman who was picked 7th (Frank Thomas).    

Harper, to me was the right pick, and a successful pick.    Just not the most  successful pick.    

2 through 6 had no careers in the year McDonald was picked #1 overall. Of course if you search any year you are going to find superstars picked later in the draft.  Chuck Knublach was picked 25th that year.   Also Frank Thomas was 6' 5" and 240 pounds. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

2 through 6 had no careers in the year McDonald was picked #1 overall. Of course if you search any year you are going to find superstars picked later in the draft.  Chuck Knublach was picked 25th that year.   Also Frank Thomas was 6' 5" and 240 pounds. 

Some other guys who were picked in ‘89:

Jim Thome 

Jeff Kent 

Jason Giambi 

Jorge Posada

Trevor Hoffman

Fun fact: all five of those players were listed as shortstops when they were drafted!

Also:

Brian Giles

Tim Salmon

John Olerud

Mo Vaughn

Jeff Bagwell

In hindsight, that has to be one of the best drafts of all time in terms of the players it produced.

 

[atomic]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Some other guys who were picked in ‘89:

Jim Thome 

Jeff Kent 

Jason Giambi 

Jorge Posada

Trevor Hoffman

Fun fact: all five of those players were listed as shortstops when they were drafted!

Also:

Brian Giles

Tim Salmon

John Olerud

Mo Vaughn

Jeff Bagwell

In hindsight, that has to be one of the best drafts of all time in terms of the players it produced.

 

Indians picked Jim Thome in the 13th round and Brian Giles in the 17th round.  They had a total of 154 WAR from that draft.  They had quite a few good drafts back then.  Their GM was a guy named Hank Peters. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

When Garvey was active I think almost everyone assumed he was a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame.  He got MVP votes almost every year for a decade.  Then the information revolution started and folks realized that you probably shouldn't be getting MVP votes in a year where you had eight homers, 24 walks and grounded into 25 double plays.  Even if you played every game and charmed the pants of every woman in southern California.

[ShoelesJoe]

I trust Elias, but the only reasoning I can see to not draft Rutschman at 1-1 is  if you think Witt is going to be the next Arod, and reach for that possible jackpot rather than go with the safe pick. Saving $$$ on the #1 by going with a cheaper guy who’s less of a sure thing to maybe get a slightly better guy at the #40 (or whatever it is) slot strikes me as overthinking things by an order of magnitude. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I trust Elias, but the only reasoning I can see to not draft Rutschman at 1-1 is  if you think Witt is going to be the next Arod, and reach for that possible jackpot rather than go with the safe pick. Saving $$$ on the #1 by going with a cheaper guy who’s less of a sure thing to maybe get a slightly better guy at the #40 (or whatever it is) slot strikes me as overthinking things by an order of magnitude. 

Arod was in his second year in the majors when he was Witt's age.

[ShoelesJoe]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Arod was in his second year in the majors when he was Witt's age.

Ya, but the Mariners really messed him up by not making him spend an entire season at each level of the minors. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, ShoelesJoe said:

Ya, but the Mariners really messed him up by not making him spend an entire season at each level of the minors. 

 

They also didn't game his service time properly.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I trust Elias, but the only reasoning I can see to not draft Rutschman at 1-1 is  if you think Witt is going to be the next Arod, and reach for that possible jackpot rather than go with the safe pick. Saving $$$ on the #1 by going with a cheaper guy who’s less of a sure thing to maybe get a slightly better guy at the #40 (or whatever it is) slot strikes me as overthinking things by an order of magnitude. 

Even moreso than Witt Jr, a guy you can fall in love with is CJ Abrams, it takes a little imagination because he doesn't have as mature of a body as Witt, but the ceiling is something like 60 hit, 55 power, 70 run, 60 arm, 60+ field in CF. (he's a SS now, but the defensive ceiling might be higher in CF). He doesn't really have any game power currently, but the raw power is there with more likely coming as he matures. He's a tier below Rutschman, but I'd put him right with Witt Jr.

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Even moreso than Witt Jr, a guy you can fall in love with is CJ Abrams, it takes a little imagination because he doesn't have as mature of a body as Witt, but the ceiling is something like 60 hit, 55 power, 70 run, 60 arm, 60+ field in CF. (he's a SS now, but the defensive ceiling might be higher in CF). He doesn't really have any game power currently, but the raw power is there with more likely coming as he matures. He's a tier below Rutschman, but I'd put him right with Witt Jr.

But Witt has a 70 Name.