If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[DrungoHazewood]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

“There’s no doubt in my mind that...in 5-7 years, he’s going to be Mike Trout.”

That might be the most ridiculous quote about a player that I have ever read.    Even if Witt turns out to be the best player in this draft, his chances of being as good as Trout are minuscule.   Even if you thought that was a possibility, to say “there’s no doubt in my mind” is just absurd.    

Let me know if Witt puts up a 10 WAR season in 2021.   He’ll be a couple of months older then than Trout was in 2012.    

The quote is from someone by the name of Ryan Nelson*, CEO, USA Prime Baseball.  I'm assuming that's his agent?  If that's not his agent ,or maybe his dad wearing Groucho glasses and pretending to be a scout, the guy is spouting nonsense.  Projecting a 17- or 18-year old to become an inner-circle HOFer is silly and stupid.

* Presumably not former DC United center-back and New Zealand international of the same name.  But if it was that might explain the ludicrous nature of the quote.

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The quote is from someone by the name of Ryan Nelson*, CEO, USA Prime Baseball.  I'm assuming that's his agent?  If that's not his agent ,or maybe his dad wearing Groucho glasses and pretending to be a scout, the guy is spouting nonsense.  Projecting a 17- or 18-year old to become an inner-circle HOFer is silly and stupid.

* Presumably not former DC United center-back and New Zealand international of the same name.  But if it was that might explain the ludicrous nature of the quote.

According to his website, he is a current associate scout for the Orioles(!).

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

According to his website, he is a current associate scout for the Orioles!

That's just a fancy term for a bird dog.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

According to his website, he is a current associate scout for the Orioles(!).

LOL.    It figures.   

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That's just a fancy term for a bird dog.

Yeah, he obviously isn't a decision maker, nor should he be with hyperbole like that. Truly an embarrassing statement.

[wildbillhiccup]

#trusttheprocess

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

That's just a fancy term for a bird dog.

Elias:  “Hey Ryan, I hear there’s some kid in Oklahoma named Witt.   Can you check him out and let me know your opinion?”

Nelson:  “There’s no doubt in my mind that in 5-7 years he’ll be Mike Trout.”

Elias:   “Thanks, Ryan, in that case we’ll be sure to pick him number 1.   By the way, what’s your opinion of Adley Rutschman?”

Nelson: “Who?”

Elias: (Click.)

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

According to his website, he is a current associate scout for the Orioles(!).

Wow.  Might be fun to see his writeups. His ratings go from 70 to 100 on the 20-80 scouting scale.  Reviewing a potential 6th rounder: "You ever heard of Mantle? Mays? Aaron? Children by comparison."

[weams]

On 5/12/2019 at 1:34 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think all that much could realistically happen in the next few weeks.  I don't think if he cuts his hand cutting bread for a sandwich it's going to cause him to drop.  It would take something pretty serious at this stage.

 

Like a back flair up or that old arm injury rearing up?

[Redskins Rick]

21 minutes ago, weams said:

Like a back flair up or that old arm injury rearing up?

walking through the parking lot and finding a pot hole to fall into. LOL

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Like a back flair up or that old arm injury rearing up?

Meteor strike.

[Tryptamine]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

They wouldn't, hence all the media reports of the Orioles looking at other options. 

I've seen a few Vaughn rumors recently. 

[atomic]

On 5/28/2019 at 10:19 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

 

They need to change that rule to allow all picks to be traded.  In prior years I'd assume the Orioles would screw it up, instead dumping them for short-term goals or not participating out of plain ultraconservativsm.

But with Elias?  My guess is that the O's would have 78 picks in the 2021 draft.

On the other hand, the difference in value between picks (except a few high round one selections) is small.  You might collect more picks, but not move up or down strategically.

If i had the 28th pick in the draft I would certainly trade all my picks this year for the #1 overall pick.  As the 2013 and 2014 years where the Astro's picked Appel and  Brady Aiken they didn't have much success at all in the later rounds I am not sure their strategy was all that effective. 

[Hallas]

20 minutes ago, atomic said:

If i had the 28th pick in the draft I would certainly trade all my picks this year for the #1 overall pick.  As the 2013 and 2014 years where the Astro's picked Appel and  Brady Aiken they didn't have much success at all in the later rounds I am not sure their strategy was all that effective. 

1: you can't find teams that are willing to trade 1:1 especially if the top draft pick fills an organizational need.  2: Even if you could, you can't do this too often because teams use the low rounds of a draft to fill out minor league teams.  If you went this route you'd have to do something really creative to field full rosters for all your minor league affiliates.  Imagine the haul that would be required for New Orleans in the NBA to give up their 1:1 (and as a result give up on Zion Williamson.) . 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, atomic said:

If i had the 28th pick in the draft I would certainly trade all my picks this year for the #1 overall pick.  As the 2013 and 2014 years where the Astro's picked Appel and  Brady Aiken they didn't have much success at all in the later rounds I am not sure their strategy was all that effective. 

Per Fangraphs, the average value of the no. 1 pick is $45.5 mm, whereas the value of the no. 28 pick is $10.7 mm.   This year, the no. 2 pick for the team drafting 28th (69th pick overall) is worth $3.9 mm.    The remaining round 3-40 are worth $27 mm.    So, by that logic, the no. 1 overall pick is worth more than all 40 picks of the no. 28 team combined.   The problem with that logic is there’s a lot more risk in making one pick than there is in making 40.    

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/