An Early Look at the 2020 Draft's Top Prospects

[joelala]

49 minutes ago, cnmilton said:

At this point (which can obviously change) for me the 1st pick is Hancock, Martin,  or bust. I think these two players fit best into the Os farm system needs, but neither is a reach either. 

I like Torkelson too. And Nick Gonzalez. I would be happy with both as well. 

[Greg Pappas]

I'm still hopeful that Ed Howard or another prospect takes a nice step forward towards being worthy of a Top 2 pick. Naturally, the more legit Top-2-type players to choose from, the better. As has been mentioned throughout this thread, we have a long way to go.

[Number5]

53 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm still hopeful that Ed Howard or another prospect takes a nice step forward towards being worthy of a Top 2 pick. Naturally, the more legit Top-2-type players to choose from, the better. AS has been mentioned throughout this thread, we have a long way to go.

I'm not sure that I agree with you.  How does having more equally high-rated draft prospects available at #2 help us?  We can only take one.  Seems like that would be more beneficial to the teams drafting behind us at spots 3, 4, 5, and 6 than to us.  Personally, I'd like to see it boil down to two no-doubt-about-it top guys.  We'd get whichever one Detroit doesn't take and we'd have just as good a chance at a superstar as they do, with a better chance than those picking behind us.

[Greg Pappas]

13 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I'm not sure that I agree with you.  How does having more equally high-rated draft prospects available at #2 help us?  We can only take one.  Seems like that would be more beneficial to the teams drafting behind us at spots 3, 4, 5, and 6 than to us.  Personally, I'd like to see it boil down to two no-doubt-about-it top guys.  We'd get whichever one Detroit doesn't take and we'd have just as good a chance at a superstar as they do, with a better chance than those picking behind us.

So if there are say four equally talented/rated players available for picks 1 and 2, you'd rather be relegated to just two choices? This makes zero sense to me.  I don't care about the teams behind us, I want the pick of the litter, so to speak.

An example (just theoretical) of this would be that equally-rated prospects our available at draft time. One is a SS, one a CF, and the other two are starters. The Tigers take a starter. We then have a SS, CF and starter all equally rated and available.  I'd rather Elias have the choice to choose among them, rather than have one real option on the board.  

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

So if there are say four equally talented/rated players available for picks 1 and 2, you'd rather be relegated to just two choices? This makes zero sense to me.  I don't care about the teams behind us, I want the pick of the litter, so to speak.

An example (just theoretical) of this would be that equally-rated prospects our available at draft time. One is a SS, one a CF, and the other two are starters. The Tigers take a starter. We then have a SS, CF and starter all equally rated and available.  I'd rather Elias have the choice to choose among them, rather than have one real option on the board.  

I guess I not only want a good player, I want a player that is more likely better than the players that the teams picking behind us get.  To me, the point of having such a high draft pick is to hopefully improve our team by more than other teams improve theirs.  I understand what you are saying.  I just disagree with it.  To each his own.

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I guess I not only want a good player, I want a player that is more likely better than the players that the teams picking behind us get.  To me, the point of having such a high draft pick is to hopefully improve our team by more than other teams improve theirs.  I understand what you are saying.  I just disagree with it.  To each his own.

And if we could work it out to where the Tigers draft the equivalents of Dansby Swanson while we take Alex Bregman, and the Tigers take Mark Appel and we take Kris Bryant, that'd be great too.

[LookinUp]

On 12/20/2019 at 3:26 PM, Number5 said:

I guess I not only want a good player, I want a player that is more likely better than the players that the teams picking behind us get.  To me, the point of having such a high draft pick is to hopefully improve our team by more than other teams improve theirs.  I understand what you are saying.  I just disagree with it.  To each his own.

Honestly, what I really want in this draft is a prospect who is legitimately good enough to keep us from taking Torkelson. 

I'm sure I'd love the guy, but I want players that give positional value or #1/2 starter value. Bat only guys, while they can be awesome (see Fielder, Prince), just don't excite me.

[dbmillertime]

Maybe way to far off, but with this year looking like another #1 pick, and all the hype for SP Kumar Rocker, would a MI or CF be more beneficial this year (Austin Martin)?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, dbmillertime said:

Maybe way to far off, but with this year looking like another #1 pick, and all the hype for SP Kumar Rocker, would a MI or CF be more beneficial this year (Austin Martin)?

BPA.

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, dbmillertime said:

Maybe way to far off, but with this year looking like another #1 pick, and all the hype for SP Kumar Rocker, would a MI or CF be more beneficial this year (Austin Martin)?

It’s too early to cement Rocker as 1-1, besides any uncertainty about a pitcher staying healthy for 2 years, there are other players who could jump. Outside of more unexpected jumps, there is Alex Binelas who had a 1.047 OPS as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC. if he gives teams confidence he’ll stick at 3B, he’s an easy 1-1 candidate. Then there is Braylon Bishop, who is a HS CF with an absurd assortment of tools. They don’t all transfer in game yet but if they do over the next 18 months, another easy 1-1 candidate. Then there is Brady House who is in the discussion for 1-1 already.

 

 

[dbmillertime]

9 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

It’s too early to cement Rocker as 1-1, besides any uncertainty about a pitcher staying healthy for 2 years, there are other players who could jump. Outside of more unexpected jumps, there is Alex Binelas who had a 1.047 OPS as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC. if he gives teams confidence he’ll stick at 3B, he’s an easy 1-1 candidate. Then there is Braylon Bishop, who is a HS CF with an absurd assortment of tools. They don’t all transfer in game yet but if they do over the next 18 months, another easy 1-1 candidate. Then there is Brady House who is in the discussion for 1-1 already.

 

 

Thank you.  I’m in the infant stages in learning about pre-draft prospects.  My main question is a what point does a team skew away from the BPA draft philosophy?  I understand our farm system still has quite a ways to go, but it seems much more pitcher heavy.  

[7Mo]

8 minutes ago, dbmillertime said:

Thank you.  I’m in the infant stages in learning about pre-draft prospects.  My main question is a what point does a team skew away from the BPA draft philosophy?  I understand our farm system still has quite a ways to go, but it seems much more pitcher heavy.  

Never. 

There are too many uncertainties with draft picks and the development time is far greater than with football or basketball. And even ignoring those things, the Braves had Austin Riley, a third baseman, on the verge of his major league debut. Yet they went out and signed Josh Donaldson, and brought Riley up as an outfielder. 

You just find the best talent you can and make it work. Same with pitchers. If you have 5 good starters, you still want to upgrade on those 5 any time you can. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Never. 

There are too many uncertainties with draft picks and the development time is far greater than with football or basketball. And even ignoring those things, the Braves had Austin Riley, a third baseman, on the verge of his major league debut. Yet they went out and signed Josh Donaldson, and brought Riley up as an outfielder. 

You just find the best talent you can and make it work. Same with pitchers. If you have 5 good starters, you still want to upgrade on those 5 any time you can. 

 

Or just have a sixth in reserve for when one of the five go down.

[Bradysburns]

On 12/23/2019 at 11:55 AM, LookinUp said:

Honestly, what I really want in this draft is a prospect who is legitimately good enough to keep us from taking Torkelson. 

I'm sure I'd love the guy, but I want players that give positional value or #1/2 starter value. Bat only guys, while they can be awesome (see Fielder, Prince), just don't excite me.

I can relate to that. If we wind up with Torkelson, I won't mind of course. But I am increasingly leaning toward Austin Martin ... From what I'm reading, he would be a reasonable #2 pick -- even if he'd be a reach at #1. I just love the defensive reputation, the all-around athleticism and playing up-the-middle ... It's also a major position of need in our farm system. 

[WI O’s Fan]

Going back to the 2000 draft moving forward, the success rate of a college positional player far exceeds the success of a college pitchers looking at only the top 5 picks.   In the years 2000-2016, there were 14 position players that had a high impact in the mlb while only 4 on the pitching side ( gray, cole, price, and verlander) and Gray is still even debatable.   For the O’s in 2020,  I would concentrate on A Martin, N Gonzalez, and Torkelson in that order.