Fangraphs: Orioles have good reason to be excited about Trey Mancini

[Moose Milligan]

28 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

There are people like myself that like Mancini and the game he brings but try to be realistic about how far away from competing this team is. Five years from now, at his age he would be a good member of the team.

 

I'm ok with keeping him if the offers are low. 

In 5 years from now he's 32.  Apparently in the eyes of some here, that makes him some ancient mariner because he's apparently old as dirt now at age 27.  I hope by that time, we're competitive.  Just because we're not competitive now doesn't mean we can't start identifying guys who are good.  

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Means strikes out enough guys, I think.  And his changeup is the real deal.

I know the in thing to do is act like Mancini is some "meh" player, someone disposable.  But I am dead set against trading him.  I've said it before, I'll say it again....this board has been whining forever about cheap, cost controlled talent and how we don't have any of it.  And when we finally do, people all of a sudden get this super cavalier attitude that...oh well, he doesn't play defense well enough.  And this MIGHT NOT BE how good he actually is.  And OMG HE'S 27!!!!! SO OLD!!!  Constantly poking holes in a guy that might not be a superstar, but is pretty damn good.  This board is the bum on the corner turning down a meal at McDonalds because he'd rather have Shake Shack.  

Get rid of Davis, give Mancini first base and GTFO of the way.  It should be that simple.  I'm not saying Mancini is a Machado-esque talent that you've gotta "build around" (whatever that means) but he's certainly not part of the problem.  

Its all about the rebuild.   If Mancini can bring back quality players that helps with the rebuild then I think Elias trades him. If no team offers players of value to the rebuild then he stays.   Its that simple.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its all about the rebuild.   If Mancini can bring back quality players that helps with the rebuild then I think Elias trades him. If no team offers players of value to the rebuild then he stays.   Its that simple.

Or lock him up next year if he's still performing this way and have him as part of the rebuild.  

It could be that simple. 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Or lock him up next year if he's still performing this way and have him as part of the rebuild.  

It could be that simple. 

That will be Elias' judgement.   Is what is offered have more value to the rebuild than what Elias thinks Mancini will offer.

[BohKnowsBmore]

10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't totally disagree with the sentiment here.  But it's not like any pitcher who's stressed about any part of our lineup can quickly remember that his hitters get to face our pitching.  

Fair, bit if the sentiment I responded to were true and/or borne out by results, the expectation would be that Mancinis numbers would be better later in the game when the Orioles were trailing. 

[Moose Milligan]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

That will be Elias' judgement. 

Get right outta town!

[Bubble Buddy]

I actually enjoyed the article. There wasn't a 100% clear reason for the improvement, but they looked at a lot of different factors. Two takeaways for me: The reduction in ground balls and the improvement against off speed pitches. 

It could be temporary, but I definitely like to see the improvement against off speed stuff as it's one of the biggest hurdles once you get to MLB. Definitely sounds like an adjustment to me that could be sustainable. He's gone from very poor against them to average, while still mashing fastballs. 

Edited June 28, 2019 by Bubble Buddy

[Sanfran327]

14 hours ago, Hallas said:

If we had a roster with these 5 guys on it, it’s not hard to imagine a playoff roster.  The problem is the other 20 guys.  You still need to find 4 SP and 4 starting position players to fill out your lineup.   And frankly on your list, I believe that only Villar, Means, and Mancini would be starters on a playoff team, which leaves us with even more holes.

I think Means is a mid-to-back-end rotation guy on a contender and Mancini is a bottom-half hitter. Personal opinion. That's it as far as O's on contenders go. 

[LookinUp]

17 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

K rate down 4%, BB% up slightly, Hard% up nearly 4%, Line Drive% up 5%, less pull happy and a juiced ball. All things that spell better results.

And he's healthy, which might be the material difference.

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm not saying Mancini is a Machado-esque talent that you've gotta "build around" (whatever that means) but he's certainly not part of the problem.  

I think most agree that he's good and that it wouldn't be a terrible thing if he's kept, but...

4 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm ok with keeping him if the offers are low. 

This guy ^^^

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Is what is offered have more value to the rebuild than what Elias thinks Mancini will offer.

And this guy ^^^ are channeling reality. It's not that we want to trade him or don't want to trade him. We want the best rebuild possible. The obvious thing to do is turn your assets into the best team we can in 2021, 2022 and beyond. If that means we keep Mancini because a trade doesn't improve us in that window, great. If it means we trade Mancini and get a crazy deal for a guy like Gleybar Torres, great. The problem is that the crazy great deal is pretty darn unlikely for a bat first/only guy. But you never know, so you have to be open to all possibilities.

[JR Oriole]

Every once in awhile, I think about how analytics have somewhat robbed us of our ability to appreciate and enjoy a player.  We have been dissecting all of Mancini's flaws as opposed to just appreciating the fact that he has given us a very good season so far in spite of being on the most unwatchable, pathetic team in baseball.  I can only imagine how critical we might have been of the individual players on the 1983 Orioles had we had the analytics we do today.  Surely we would have trashed Ayala, Dwyer, Roenicke, Brother Lo, Landrum, Shelby, Ford, Nolan, Sakata, Dauer, etc.....picked them to pieces over all of the things they were not.  Thankfully, we didn't have that then and so we can just remember them as players who came through in big moments for us throughout the season and brought us a championship. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

7 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

I think Means is a mid-to-back-end rotation guy on a contender and Mancini is a bottom-half hitter. Personal opinion. That's it as far as O's on contenders go. 

Mancini is 9th in the AL in OPS+.  That profiles as a middle of the order bat on just about any team.  Unless you think he's going to turn into a pumpkin. That said, even with a disappointing year last year (accounting for a very healthy proportion of his career PA), he's still a career .803 hitter.  I'm not sure that a guy having his best season to date in ML year-3 (his age-27 season) should be a prime regression candidate either.  If anything, that seems to link up well with traditional expectations of development.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

That will be Elias' judgement.   Is what is offered have more value to the rebuild than what Elias thinks Mancini will offer.

It’s going to be a bird in the hand vs. two in the bush situation.   

[Hallas]

7 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

 I think Means is a mid-to-back-end rotation guy on a contender and Mancini is a bottom-half hitter. Personal opinion. That's it as far as O's on contenders go. 

Means as your 3rd best starter is reasonable.  Mancini as a bottom-half hitter is ridiculous on its face unless you think he's going to go back to 2018 tomorrow.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Hallas said:

Means as your 3rd best starter is reasonable.  Mancini as a bottom-half hitter is ridiculous on its face unless you think he's going to go back to 2018 tomorrow.

I swear Mike Trout would get criticized if he was an Oriole. He strikes out too much and how many playoff games has he won?

[Hallas]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I swear Mike Trout would get criticized if he was an Oriole. He strikes out too much and how many playoff games has he won?

He can't catch up to the high heat.  Obviously.