2019 #4 Prospect: Ryan Mountcastle - LF/1B

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

It's the batting average/OBP separation.  Just a handful of hitters at the major league level that make that work.  And almost none at a bat first position 1B/LF.  I think he'll be useful I just have doubts of him ever being an above average major leaguer unless he improves the walk rate a bit. 

Yep, that's the general consensus of his doubters like you. The game is changing, as is that separation. Mountcastle is going to be an impact bat at the major league level.

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Yep, that's the general consensus of his doubters like you. The game is changing, as is that separation. Mountcastle is going to be an impact bat at the major league level.

Can I get some comps? Or is Mountcastle a one of a kind/new breed player that's gonna make it work at a sub 5 percent walk rate?

[Tony-OH]

Just now, ChuckS said:

Can I get some comps? Or is Mountcastle a one of a kind/new breed player that's gonna make it work at a sub 5 percent walk rate?

Lol, I'm not going to play this game with you. I've said me piece, I've wrote my scouting report. You can disagree all you want. At the end of the day Mountcastle will prove one of us right. Feel free hate on him and disregard our scouting report. Free world.

[ChuckS]

I've read the scouting report and I also read the piece where it was said that Elias had a conversation with him and he improved his walk rate significantly over the his last 100 or so at bats in Norfolk.  I think that has got to stick.  

I don't think it works at the five percent walk rate but of course there is the potential for him to improve on that which is what we are all hoping. .300 turns to .260 real fast when major league pitchers know you are going to chase. 

[Luke-OH]

28 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I've read the scouting report and I also read the piece where it was said that Elias had a conversation with him and he improved his walk rate significantly over the his last 100 or so at bats in Norfolk.  I think that has got to stick.  

I don't think it works at the five percent walk rate but of course there is the potential for him to improve on that which is what we are all hoping. .300 turns to .260 real fast when major league pitchers know you are going to chase. 

I understand the doubts, but Mountcastle is going to improve as a hitter more than enough to offset the AAA pitching to MLB pitching gap. It might not happen in year 1 in the majors, but it's highly likely to happen, IMO. If I remember correctly, he had nine 0-2 HRs. For reference, top in the majors was five with a 100 more PA of opportunity. He also had the highest line drive rate in AA or AAA in 2019 and the highest line drive rate by a prospect aged player. Now, line drive rate is not something that's very predictive year to year in the majors, but it along with Tony and I's scouting observations tells the story of a guy whose hit tool isn't being tested. Yeah, he's got a poor approach, only because he gets away with it. He fits the profile of a player who performs up or down to the competition.

As far as bat profile comps, (not scouting comps) Eddie Rosario, prime Adam Jones with more contact quality, Starling Marte with more power, Miguel Andujar's 2018, Trumbo with more contact quality.

The best all around comp is probably Nick Castellanos, but I think Mountcastle has a little cleaner swing and a touch more bat speed, although Castellanos has a touch more patience.

[LookinUp]

10 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I understand the doubts, but Mountcastle is going to improve as a hitter more than enough to offset the AAA pitching to MLB pitching gap.

I think where I (and others) generally have trouble with prospect rankings is differentiating between a mid-case sober projection and an orange-colored glasses projection. 

You and Tony are projecting continued improvement in Mountcastle's approach. You're not just doing that because you're homers. You're doing it because of his age, bat speed, results at many levels. E.g., good information. 

Compare that to a guy like Kremer that we're talking about in another thread. To excel, he has to improve. The problem is that his profile isn't one with tremendous upside, age/results, etc. It's not that he can't. It's that the liklihood of him doing so is lower because of everything in his profile. He has a smaller neddle to thread. Mountcastle's profile essentially says that he can hit just about any pitch in just about any count. He'll have to adjust to guys throwing 98 with movement and command, and you think he will. Fair enough, from my perspective.

 

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think where I (and others) generally have trouble with prospect rankings is differentiating between a mid-case sober projection and an orange-colored glasses projection. 

You and Tony are projecting continued improvement in Mountcastle's approach. You're not just doing that because you're homers. You're doing it because of his age, bat speed, results at many levels. E.g., good information. 

Compare that to a guy like Kremer that we're talking about in another thread. To excel, he has to improve. The problem is that his profile isn't one with tremendous upside, age/results, etc. It's not that he can't. It's that the liklihood of him doing so is lower because of everything in his profile. He has a smaller neddle to thread. Mountcastle's profile essentially says that he can hit just about any pitch in just about any count. He'll have to adjust to guys throwing 98 with movement and command, and you think he will. Fair enough, from my perspective.

 

No matter how good Tony and Luke are at getting a good, well-rounded scouting report on players — and there’s no doubt they do a fantastic job — there are always factors you can’t account for.    John Means is the poster boy for that.    Nobody saw him becoming an above average major league starter, even if only for one season (we’ll see).     I think a guy like Kremer has the building blocks to be a solid starter, but there’s a ton a variables that go into whether he actually becomes one.    
 

Saying that, I have very little doubt Mountcastle will be a solid major league hitter.    It’s just a matter of exactly how good, and how his 1B/LF defense develops.   

[LookinUp]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No matter how good Tony and Luke are at getting a good, well-rounded scouting report on players — and there’s no doubt they do a fantastic job — there are always factors you can’t account for.    John Means is the poster boy for that.    Nobody saw him becoming an above average major league starter, even if only for one season (we’ll see).     I think a guy like Kremer has the building blocks to be a solid starter, but there’s a ton a variables that go into whether he actually becomes one.    
 

Saying that, I have very little doubt Mountcastle will be a solid major league hitter.    It’s just a matter of exactly how good, and how his 1B/LF defense develops.   

There's no doubt in my mind that Kremer can be every bit as good as Means assuming he too suddenly gains the feel for a ML+ change-up and gains a couple of ticks of velocity out of nowhere. It can happen, it's just not likely to happen. 

The prospect rankings weren't wrong on Means. Means just broke the rules. 

[MurphDogg]

Would anyone be interested in signing Mountcastle to this deal?

[weams]

12 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Would anyone be interested in signing Mountcastle to this deal?

Yes. Me. He will be a stud. 

[ChosenOne21]

I'd do it. It would shock me if Ryan Mountcastle isn't worth $24 million over his six years of team control and the options could prove valuable. I think there's a good chance he earns more than $22.5 million in his 3-4 arbitration years anyway

[MurphDogg]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

Yes. Me. He will be a stud. 

Max value of 9/$55.5M.

Hopefully the Orioles have floated a similar offer to Mountcastle.

[sportsfan8703]

17 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Would anyone be interested in signing Mountcastle to this deal?

The Mariners have terrible luck.  They probably just guaranteed that this guy is the next Jon Singleton.  

[Philip]

16 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Would anyone be interested in signing Mountcastle to this deal?

No. I generally oppose long-term deals because nobody knows what’s going to happen in the long term, and once you get your pipeline going you will always have good players coming up through the ranks. Trade a guy when he has two remaining years and cycle in the new guy. The Mariners gave Kyle Seager $100 million, And almost since he signed it he’s been mediocre. I don’t think this is a good idea but at least this guy is good on both sides of the ball.

Everyone says that Mountcastle is going to hit great. But nobody says he’s going to defend great or even adequately. The hope is that he can find “a defensive home.” I don’t think we should extend Trey, and I don’t think we should consider it with MC either.

[sportsfan8703]

Plus we'd be paying Mountcastle and not a guy like Mancini.  Not that we're good at PR or optics anyway.  Ideally we'd trade Mancini.  Sign Mountcastle to something long term.  Call Mountcastle up after he signs.  Leverage playing in the minors against him.