Rule 5: Brandon Bailey - RHP -Astros

[7Mo]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

This fact tempers my enthusiasm. Fewer obvious fixes for our guys, I'd wager. He might be what he is.

They all might, of course, but I love the idea of getting a guy with a good arm who hasn't had these approaches yet and helping him take a big step forward.

That's a reasonable take. I'd counter with our guys knew him about as well as anyone available and they took him with the #2 pick. So they liked him more than a number of guys who could likely contribute. 

You raise a good point. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, 7Mo said:

That's a reasonable take. I'd counter with our guys knew him about as well as anyone available and they took him with the #2 pick. So they liked him more than a number of guys who could likely contribute. 

You raise a good point. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does.

I think you also have a good take re: familiarity. 

[Philip]

15 hours ago, Philip said:

So hitters encounter movement (or in this case lack of movement) that they aren’t used to. It leads to lots of swings under the ball if used properly.

Ok so what I visualize is the hitter sees the ball and thinks,”straight fastball” and expects a particular arc( horizontal path affected by gravity) and swings where he expects the ball to be at a given time.

A well spun backspin, that is, spinning back forwards the pitcher, will fall less( which is called the “rise”which isn’t rise so much as “less fall”)so the hitter will swing under the ball.

its like shooting skeet, and the skeet traverses a flatter arc, falls less, and the shooter misses under the skeet, which flies away and marries another skeet and has lots of baby skeets. Right?

You were speaking of a perfect back spin of 12 o’clock, but most backspins are slightly off 12. Does that create horizontal movement on the ball?

im pretty sure I understand it now( It really helps to understand something when you can put it in your own words and use your own metaphors which is what I was just trying to do.)

 However, isn’t the danger that the hitter could adjust to the new arc, and aim for the new arrival point? Which means he might strike out the first at bat but adjust for the second at bat, right? 

Do pitchers have differing spin rates? Can a guy say,”This time I’m going for maximum spin, maximum “Rise.” Next pitch will the same pitch but with 50% rise so that even if he adjusts to the first location, he’s going to miss the second time.”

or is spin either on or off?

hitting is hard.

[sportsfan8703]

25 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

This fact tempers my enthusiasm. Fewer obvious fixes for our guys, I'd wager. He might be what he is.

They all might, of course, but I love the idea of getting a guy with a good arm who hasn't had these approaches yet and helping him take a big step forward.

I wouldn't expect a magical fix with Bailey.  I think we took him because we're familiar with him, and because he can have multiple inning outings.  We might not have traditional starters and relievers this year.  We might have a bunch of guys that pitch 80-100 innings, other than Means.  

[jerios55]

19 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

This fact tempers my enthusiasm. Fewer obvious fixes for our guys, I'd wager. He might be what he is.

They all might, of course, but I love the idea of getting a guy with a good arm who hasn't had these approaches yet and helping him take a big step forward.

Rule V probably isn't a place to derive enthusiam. 

His numbers are decent, the issue to me is the jump.  It's Rule V, not a big time FA signing.  He doesn't look like a guy that necessarily needs adjustment.  He was age appropriate at the levels he played and had solid stats.  I think he can contribute and do so right away. 

Further we should see things like how our pitchers will be developed to pitch.  From a current regime standpoint, he likely will be the most experienced program guy after 2 years with the Astros.  I see him as a guy that I'll see as a what we will see more of in the future.  I'm sure guys like Tony and Luke know from watching other players.  I just watch our guys.  So that adds to why I'm interested.

 

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Can a guy say,”This time I’m going for maximum spin, maximum “Rise.” Next pitch will the same pitch but with 50% rise so that even if he adjusts to the first location, he’s going to miss the second time.”

You've basically hit the essence of why "pitch design" is now a thing.  The Bauer-at-Driveline and Ottavino-in-Brooklyn are two of the better known anecdotes of recent successful pitchers who have invested in their own Rhapsodo's, done a ton of offseason work, and applied "growth mindset" to up their performance.  In some instances the individual contractor players have been the cutting edge of R&D, and teams are now assimiliating these results and figuring out how best to help all of their pitchers.  

 

 

 

[weams]

14 minutes ago, Philip said:

 

hitting is hard.

Hardest thing in sport. 

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

Hardest thing in sport. 

I doubt Altuve can dunk

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, Philip said:

You were speaking of a perfect back spin of 12 o’clock, but most backspins are slightly off 12. Does that create horizontal movement on the ball?

Yes, that creates armside movement. Some guys with low 3/4 arm slots will have more horizontal than vertical movement. 

Here is Sale (low slot) vs Kershaw (high slot) on fastball movement from the catcher's view. You can see how Sale gets more horizontal than vertical, where Kershaw (who has almost an exact 12 o'clock spin direction) is almost completely vertical. 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, weams said:

Hardest thing in sport. 

Aside from the Triple Lindy.

[Moose Milligan]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Aside from the Triple Lindy.

[Philip]

51 minutes ago, weams said:

Hardest thing in sport. 

Where a failure rate of 75% is considered average.

[Philip]

51 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I doubt Altuve can dunk

Spud Webb could, and he’s about 3 inches shorter than Altuve

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Spud Webb could, and he’s about 3 inches shorter than Altuve

Yeah but Monty Towe could not

[Number5]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Hardest thing in sport. 

What about the agony of defeat?