Orioles ROY Mountcastle vs Hays/Harvey

[HowAboutThat]

In one of their “fluff” pieces designed to help kill time between now and the start of real news, MLB Offered one potential rookie of the year for each team, and the oriole choice was Mountcastle. I found this curious, because Austin Hays or Hunter Harvey, each of whom retains rookie status, would be a better choice. They have each debuted in the majors with success, and Hays has demonstrated excellence On both sides of the ball. As things stand right now, I lean towards Hays, As being more valuable as a daily player and contributor, but I would choose either one over Mountcastle.

What does the crowd think?

[Frobby]

What I think is, “that’s why they play the season, rather than giving out the awards in advance.”    However, I think Hays has the advantage, as he will be on the roster on Opening Day (barring injury) and plays a defensive position where his bat doesn’t need to carry the whole load.    Mountcastle will really need to rake once he’s up to beat out Hays.     As for Harvey, I just want to see him stay healthy and hopefully pitch well enough to settle in as a reliable piece in our bullpen.   
 

PS - Akin could surprise us, as well.

[NCRaven]

Keep in mind that ROY is an award voted on by writers with various levels of knowledge related to advanced stats.  I think all three are realistic candidates.  Mountcastle's bat has the most upside and bats win awards.  Akin has the least upside of the three, IMO, but could surprise me.  Harvey will probably pitch in middle relief and voters don't give those guys awards, generally.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Hays would be probably be the favorite right now. I’m hoping all three are in the conversation because it will mean the young talent is starting to make an impact.

Plus it will signal the slow death of the roster being compromised with retreads and AAAA players.

[oriole]

I agree...Mountcastle is a curious choice. Even if he hits like he has in the minors he has to defend somewhere or else he is a common RH DH or a one trick pony. That’s not really ROY material unless he is an absolute monster at the plate which is highly doubtful. Above average, sure. Elite enough to make up for the lack of diverse skills, improbable but not impossible.

 

I would go with Hays as well. 

[DirtyBird]

Keegan Akin

[foxfield]

My hope is that the Orioles candidates of Mountcastle, Hays, Harvey, Akin have such stupendous success that they cancel each other out and some dude from the Royals edges these 4.  I'd say I hope they all share the award, but I didn't want to seem too greedy.    

[HowAboutThat]

For better or for worse, I compare Mountcastle with Vlad Junior. Vlad can hit, but by golly he sure can’t defend. I think Hays is a much better all-around player( than either one) and a centerfielder to boot.

I would be thrilled if Akin plays well enough to be in the conversation, but at the moment I’m not sure he’s even guaranteed a spot on opening day.

I think this article was an example of sloppy reporting, they just went to the oriole prospect list and picked the highest ranked position player with a chance to debut the season.

Edited January 10, 2020 by Philip
Typo

[Can_of_corn]

Crazy that they would pick the most highly regarded of the three.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Crazy that they would pick the most highly regarded of the three.

I sort of agree. Mountcastle is supposedly the better hitter than Hays, who has both struggled recently and dealt with injuries. I could see Hays missing time with an injury and getting into a funk while Mountcastle comes up and rakes for 2/3 of the season. 

[HowAboutThat]

Just now, interloper said:

I sort of agree. Mountcastle is supposedly the better hitter than Hays, who has both struggled recently and dealt with injuries. I could see Hays missing time with an injury and getting into a funk while Mountcastle comes up and rakes for 2/3 of the season. 

 Mountcastle probably won’t hit well enough to cancel out his lack of versatility, like happened with Vlad Junior, who, remember, was Proclaimed as just less than the Second Coming. And he did hit well, but not well enough.

If he DOES, That would be fantastic. Hays Does have an injury history, but if he makes it through the whole season unscathed, I put my money on him.

 

[Moose Milligan]

I don't think Mountcastle has to defend particularly well anywhere to be in the ROY running.  And it's an idea we should get used to (that he's not a good defender).

Alvarez won the ROY last year, no one cared about his glove (or lack of it).  I wouldn't expect Mountcastle to mash like that but in the off-chance he does, there's precedent that a slugger without a glove can win the award.  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

 Mountcastle probably won’t hit well enough to cancel out his lack of versatility, like happened with Vlad Junior, who, remember, was Proclaimed as just less than the Second Coming. And he did hit well, but not well enough.

If he DOES, That would be fantastic. Hays Does have an injury history, but if he makes it through the whole season unscathed, I put my money on him.

 

Vlad Jr. is a horrible defender, but I wouldn’t exactly write him off.   He was worth 2.1 rWAR in 123 games.    Not bad at all for a 20-year old rookie.     And it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he just exploded in 2020.

I think picking Mountcastle over Hays is defensible, though that wasn’t my choice.    In two small samples, Hays has put up OPS of .555 and .947.   So which is he?   Probably neither, and who knows exactly where he’ll fall.    I also want too see more of him defensively, as some scouts previously thought he was really a corner OF, not a CF.    He looked really good out there in September, but 15 games isn’t a good basis for judgment.    I am optimistic about Hays on both sides of the ball, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty how good he’ll be despite his nice showing last fall.

[HowAboutThat]

Just now, Frobby said:

He was worth 2.1 rWAR in 123 games.    Not bad at all for a 20-year old rookie.    

Bo Bichette was worth 1.7 fWAR in 46 games to Vlad’s .04. I’m not sure how rWAR is calculated. I think he’s a valuable player, and I’d love to have him on our team, but if he were ours, I’d put him at DH til the cows come home.

There are still questions about Hays’ health and production, but if he remains healthy, he’s still my choice because he will continue to produce on defense even if he’s slumping on offense.

[HowAboutThat]

22 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Alvarez won the ROY last year, no one cared about his glove (or lack of it

If Mountcastle hits like that, then sure. But Let’s see if he does. Very few people have, and it would be no surprise if Mountcastle does not. But man oh man, if he shows up and hits like Nelson Cruz, who you will recall was also useless in the field, that would be great.

Edited January 10, 2020 by Philip