Will Cobb pitch well enough to be traded in July 2020?

[wildcard]

Elias is trying to jettison as much salary as he can.   Alex Cobb salary of 14m in 2020 and 15m in 2021 looks like a salary that Elias would like to move.  But for that to happen Cobb has to have a good first half of the season.    Will he pitch well enough to be traded?

The odds appear against it.  2018 was Cobb first season in Camden Yards as his home.  It didn't go that well.   5-15, 4.90 ERA  152.1 IP,  172 H, 1.411 WHIP.   Not many teams would sign up to give him 14m for that quality  of performance.  So maybe if he just gets away from Camden Yard things will get better.   Not Much:  5-8,  4.88 ERA, 90.1 IP, 103 H  1.417 away from home.  

2019 was worst. He pitched 12.1 inning before missing the rest of the season on the IL.

So how does Cobb project to be better than a 4.90 ERA and a 1.400 WHIP at 32 years old this coming season?  And what team is going to offer to take the last 4.5m on his contract in July and 15m next season?   Can the O's pay someone to take him like they did with Cashner this past season?   When Cashner was traded for a couple of Dominicans he had a 9-3 record,  a 3.83 ERA  and a 1.194 WHIP in 17  starts.   Can Cobb do that? And Cashner only had a little over 3m guarantee left on his contract.  

Will the O's be able to trade Cobb in July or will he be an Oriole in 2021?   

I leave it up the OH to predict.

 

[sportsfan8703]

It’ll be a miracle. 

[mdbdotcom]

We should know in five months.

[Frobby]

It’s almost impossible to concoct a scenario where we wouldn’t have to eat salary and receive only a very minimal return in order to trade him.   Because of his injury history and his poor performance in 2018, I don’t think a team would take on his remaining salary and trade anything of value even if he had an extremely good first half of the season.    Just look at how little we got for Cashner, who was having a very good year when we traded him, had no health issues, and had far less of a salary commitment.    

Saying all that, would it shock me if we got 175 innings of a 4.00 ERA from Cobb this year?     No, it wouldn’t.    But even if that kind of season were in progress (I’d put the odds at 20%), I still think any trade would involve eating salary and getting little back.   
 

[Moose Milligan]

I think we should proceed with Cobb as not expecting much from him.  Anything positive we get, including being able to trade him, is a positive.  

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s almost impossible to concoct a scenario where we wouldn’t have to eat salary and receive only a very minimal return in order to trade him.   Because of his injury history and his poor performance in 2018, I don’t think a team would take on his remaining salary and trade anything of value even if he had an extremely good first half of the season.    Just look at how little we got for Cashner, who was having a very good year when we traded him, had no health issues, and had far less of a salary commitment.    

Saying all that, would it shock me if we got 175 innings of a 4.00 ERA from Cobb this year?     No, it wouldn’t.    But even if that kind of season were in progress (I’d put the odds at 20%), I still think any trade would involve eating salary and getting little back.   
 

If we (the Orioles) got 175 innings from Cobb he would he would have pitched the whole season for the O's.  He would not have been traded in July.  So I guess you are thinking there may be a 20% chance he may be traded next off season.

[Philip]

Well, I suppose it’s back to talking about the Orioles...I don’t really care about this particular question, although I think if he has any value at all he will be moved for anything we can get rather than just keep him till the end of his contract and let him go.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If we (the Orioles) got 175 innings from Cobb he would he would have pitched the whole season for the O's.  He would not have been traded in July.  So I guess you are thinking there may be a 20% chance he may be traded next off season.

I said “if that kind of season were in progress.”   So, say in late July he’s thrown 110 innings at a 4.00 ERA.    I still think it would be hard to trade him, for the reasons I gave.    But let’s say we offer to eat half his remaining salary.    We might get some token prospect and avoid paying the other half of his salary in that scenario.   

[GuidoSarducci]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I said “if that kind of season were in progress.”   So, say in late July he’s thrown 110 innings at a 4.00 ERA.    I still think it would be hard to trade him, for the reasons I gave.    But let’s say we offer to eat half his remaining salary.    We might get some token prospect and avoid paying the other half of his salary in that scenario.   

Which would be more than enough for Elias to pull the trigger

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Which would be more than enough for Elias to pull the trigger

Probably would be.     

[7Mo]

If he's throwing well by July, we should find out if the O's are willing to eat some salary to trade him. And whether they will eat a lot to increase the prospect return. 

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I said “if that kind of season were in progress.”   So, say in late July he’s thrown 110 innings at a 4.00 ERA.    I still think it would be hard to trade him, for the reasons I gave.    But let’s say we offer to eat half his remaining salary.    We might get some token prospect and avoid paying the other half of his salary in that scenario.   

Its not the other half  of his 2020 salary  that is the problem.  Its the 15m he is owed in 2021.

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

Its not the other half  of his 2020 salary  that is the problem.  Its the 15m he is owed in 2021.

I meant half of both.   

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I meant half of both.   

I agree with your 20% chance that would happen.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree with your 20% chance that would happen.

To be clear, the 20% chance I was talking about was that he’ll have that kind of season.   I wasn’t making odds on him being traded.   If he’s doing that well in July, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll be traded.    If he’s doing somewhat worse but not awful (let’s say 4.50 ERA), he still might get traded, but we’d have to eat even more of his salary and take even less of a prospect in return.   If we hit the jackpot and he’s having a top Cobb season (say, 3.50 ERA), maybe we eat a bit less and get a slightly better return.    But we’re not going to get a very significant return no matter what happens, I expect.