The Star Power of the 1995 Orioles

[Moose Milligan]

36 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I might be able to find it on Bill James' site, maybe not, but at some point he made a remark along the lines of "oh, I thought it was pretty common knowledge that Ryan was doctoring the ball late in his career."  And James has at least been around MLB for 40 years.

I feel like it would have been more widely rumored if that were the case.  I know he's one of your heroes but...Bill James likes to talk a lot.  And tell stories.  I'm not saying he's a liar, but I wouldn't put it past him to exaggerate things.  And saying a little throwaway comment like that isn't lying like your boy Pete Rose lies but...it might not be the whole truth.  

As you said, we could speculate all day.  But Ryan was one of the hardest throwers ever.  And he had a nasty curveball, too.  I don't think his velocity diminished that much by the late 80s.  I dunno.  

Don't get me wrong, if Ryan scuffed the ball I wouldn't really care.  He'd still be one of my favorites of all time.  I just don't know how much I trust Bill James when he makes those little throwaway comments.  Now, if he said, "I was having dinner with Bill Doran and Billy Hatcher when we ran into Jim Deshaies and Nolan Ryan and they were discussing the best way to scuff a baseball and what type of action you can get," I'd believe that much more.  

[Moose Milligan]

@DrungoHazewood alright, so there were some accusations:

https://www.nytimes.com/1993/08/17/sports/on-baseball-special-treatment-game-owes-it-to-ryan.html

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It is somewhat ironic that in his last season, Ryan has been hit with a couple of charges by other players, coaches and managers. After he pummeled Robin Ventura of the Chicago White Sox when Ventura, hit by a Ryan pitch, charged the mound, Ryan was not ejected, prompting the charge of special treatment. And the special-treatment talk resurrected a charge that Ryan doctors some of the baseballs he throws by cutting, scratching or scuffing them.

"I don't think about those things," Ryan said when asked about those things. "I guess because I'm a fastball pitcher and I've maintained it, I comer under criticism. I don't concern myself with those things. I found out early in my career -- I guess I learned it in New York -- not to let myself be distracted by anything."

The questions then were put to him directly.

Does he receive special treatment? "No."

Does he do anything to the balls? "No."

He laughed as he answered the second question. Would he really be expected to admit scuffing baseballs if he did?

Stanley said he has heard the scuffball charges, but he also said he had no knowledge of the act.

"I've thrown a lot of balls back to pitchers that were fouled in the dirt," Stanley related. "You say, 'I hope this guy knows what to do with the ball.' But that doesn't say he scuffs the ball."

The point here is that managers and coaches and players on other teams should be careful about firing a scuffball charge at anyone. After all, some of their own pitchers are very likely doing the same thing.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-xpm-1992-07-06-9202180234-story.html

 

Quote

RLINGTON, Texas -- The New York Yankees suggested Sunday that it was not only Nolan Ryan's 95 mph fastball and sharp curve that stifled them 4-1 on Saturday night. Several Yankees said Ryan might have been scuffing baseballs in his three-hitter.

"Let's put it this way: He had some very unusual movement," Mel Hall said.

"The balls had some movement you definitely don't see, but we can't prove it," Roberto Kelly said.

The Yankees inspected some baseballs that rolled their way, finding what they said was a scuff on one during Ryan's 13-strikeout, one-walk performance. The Yankees who made the allegations did not say Ryan was reliant on scuffballs. One estimated, "He may have done it a half-dozen times."

Regardless, the Yankees lodged no complaints with the umpires and do not plan to complain to the league office. They believe Ryan would not be investigated or disciplined. One Yankee said, "He's like the pope."

Approached about the allegations Sunday, Ryan (2-3) did not even let the questioner finish. He said, smiling, "Don't even ask me that. I have no comment."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/qa-chili-davis/

 

Quote

Chili Davis: Well, Larry cheated. Ryno probably wouldn’t say that, but later in Larry’s career, he cut the ball up. He taught Mike Scott how to cut the ball up, and then they taught Nolan Ryan how to cut the ball up. Larry Andersen was a good pitcher before that, but as a hitter, I know he did. The ball moved too dang much.

Quote

DL: You said that Nolan Ryan scuffed the ball. I’ve never heard that before.

CD: Yeah, he did. He did the one year with Houston, when Scotty and Andersen were with him. He did. We checked. He threw a couple balls that moved unlike any [of Ryan’s balls] I’ve ever seen move. We checked it and it had scuffs on it. He was up in age at that time, and he was still throwing hard.

DL: Was Ryan intimidating?

CD: He was intimidating. He had great stuff and wasn’t afraid to pitch in. You always hear about Nolan Ryan’s fastball. Nolan Ryan had a 12-6 curveball that was hard and would buckle right-handers and left-handers. It would just fall off the end of the table. He had good stuff. I don’t want to take anything away from Nolan Ryan when I mention the fact that he scuffed a few balls, because he didn’t the majority of his career. It could have been one year he was trying to do something, you know? He was a very good pitcher, a very successful pitcher. He was a dominant pitcher.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I feel like it would have been more widely rumored if that were the case.  I know he's one of your heroes but...Bill James likes to talk a lot.  And tell stories.  I'm not saying he's a liar, but I wouldn't put it past him to exaggerate things.  And saying a little throwaway comment like that isn't lying like your boy Pete Rose lies but...it might not be the whole truth.  

As you said, we could speculate all day.  But Ryan was one of the hardest throwers ever.  And he had a nasty curveball, too.  I don't think his velocity diminished that much by the late 80s.  I dunno.  

Don't get me wrong, if Ryan scuffed the ball I wouldn't really care.  He'd still be one of my favorites of all time.  I just don't know how much I trust Bill James when he makes those little throwaway comments.  Now, if he said, "I was having dinner with Bill Doran and Billy Hatcher when we ran into Jim Deshaies and Nolan Ryan and they were discussing the best way to scuff a baseball and what type of action you can get," I'd believe that much more.  

I admire a lot of James' work, but I also disagree with him on any number of things.  He's currently in the midst of a very long series of articles where it looks like he's trying to reinvent replacement level in some kind of ad hoc, convoluted way.  I frankly don't understand what or why he's doing (maybe building on Win Shares, which I much prefer WAR to), he's been more than a little condescending about it, and lot of it would be solved if he had the math chops of someone like Tom Tango.

So while I enjoy his writing, I'm not exactly in his thrall.  But I don't think he's one to lie or exaggerate.  In this case he obliquely referenced this thing about Ryan years ago but didn't want to say anything directly, then more recently someone asked about that comment and he more-or-less said Ryan was doctoring the ball and thought most people knew.

[LA2]

57 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 1994 Sid Fernandez allowed more homers on the road (14) than he did at Camden Yards (13).  I think he just sucked.

But then over the next two seasons put up mid-3 ERA with by far the best K/9 figures of his career with the Phillies. But it was only 22 starts total--must have been injured most of the time.

[Hazmat]

22 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let's be clear here, Jaime Moyer wasn't really JAIME MOYER yet.  When they got him in '93, he was a journeyman type.  And he had a good season that year but he regressed each year after.  No one would have ever believed after the Orioles let him go after '95 that he'd go on to win 208 games with a 4.13 ERA.  It's easy to look at that name now and remember what a great career he had and how long he lasted but no would have had a clue then.  

Kind of similar with Kevin Brown...Kevin Brown was a good pitcher but he really wasn't KEVIN BROWN yet.  He really started to dominate in '96.  Don't get me wrong, he was pretty damn good for his one season in Baltimore but his season ended early when he tried to field a chopper back up the middle with his pitching hand and he broke a finger.  

Two guys that...if the Orioles held onto them, would they have reached the heights they did?  Hard to know.  

I recall Flanny saying that Brown had some of the best raw stuff he had ever seen when the O’s acquired him.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Hazmat said:

I recall Flanny saying that Brown had some of the best raw stuff he had ever seen when the O’s acquired him.

I remember this too, and also that Brown wasn't a good clubhouse guy and didn't have many friends on the team. 

[Larry18]

13 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Pitchers often have much less predictable career arcs than position players.  But still, not many are dramatically better in their 30s than their 20s.  And when it happens there is usually a clear reason.  Martinez stopped drinking.  Dazzy Vance broke off a bone spur hitting his elbow on a poker table, and after surgery was the best pitcher in baseball.  Knuckleballers take a decade to figure out the pitch.  Some early pitchers like Bill Hutchison who didn't start pro careers until very late because 1800s baseball was disorganized and chaotic.

Moyer is almost unique in that there was no precipitating cause.  He just turned into a very good pitcher in his mid-30s.

Interesting side point: I made a list of the top old (32+) pitchers of all time.  Just scanning that list there are at least nine knuckleballers in the top 100.  The Niekros, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dutch Leonard, Eddie Cicotte, Charlie Hough, Tom Candiotti, RA Dickey, Tim Wakefield, and I'm sure I'm missing a few. In any given season today there are one, two, three knuckleballers out of 300+ MLB pitchers.  So being a knuckleballer probably increases the odds of pitching well into your late 30s or even 40s by 10 or 20 times compared to a standard pitcher.

 

Jack Quinn should get a nod even though he threw a legal spitball.

[OsEatAlEast]

6 hours ago, LA2 said:

But then over the next two seasons put up mid-3 ERA with by far the best K/9 figures of his career with the Phillies. But it was only 22 starts total--must have been injured most of the time.

You beat me to it, he went back to the NL and was back to form. He only really stunk in the year and a hand full of starts the next season with the O's.

Edited April 18, 2020 by OsEatAlEast

[OsEatAlEast]

Could the DH have actually had that big of an impact on Fernandez. Or was he just way better at pitching in the cookie cutter ballparks that held on longer in the NL.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

11 minutes ago, OsEatAlEast said:

Could the DH have actually had that big of an impact on Fernandez. Or was he just way better at pitching in the cookie cutter ballparks that held on longer in the NL.

I think it was a combination of both. Fernandez pitched in the NL East and it was a lot more pitcher friendly than the AL East. Also Shea Stadium was very pitcher friendly where he pitched for most of his career. 

Fernandez's career ERA at Shea Stadium was 2.52 compared to his overall career ERA of 3.36 and his career road ERA was 4.05.  Also it didn't help that Sid seemingly gave up on exercise by the time he became an Oriole.

 

[GuidoSarducci]

29 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think it was a combination of both. Fernandez pitched in the NL East and it was a lot more pitcher friendly than the AL East. Also Shea Stadium was very pitcher friendly where he pitched for most of his career. 

Fernandez's career ERA at Shea Stadium was 2.52 compared to his overall career ERA of 3.36 and his career road ERA was 4.05.  Also it didn't help that Sid seemingly gave up on exercise by the time he became an Oriole.

 

In 1995, Fernandez posted a 7.34 ERA in 8 appearances for the Orioles, 7 of which were starts. 

After he was released and Philly picked him up, he posted 3.34 ERA in 11 starts, going 6-1. 

Following year, at age 34, 3.43 ERA in again 11 starts before he got hurt. 

His two seasons (really two half seasons) in Baltimore was a total anomaly in his playing career, and there was some reason he couldn't be effective here.  Sadly a common story with Orioles pitchers. 

 

 

 

[GuidoSarducci]

8 hours ago, LA2 said:

But then over the next two seasons put up mid-3 ERA with by far the best K/9 figures of his career with the Phillies. But it was only 22 starts total--must have been injured most of the time.

In 1995, his K/9 with the Oriole was 10.0, which was the best he posted since his 2 game rookie season.  On the other hand, his HR/9  was an abysmal 2.9, which was > 3x worse than his career average of 0.9.  His BB/9 was also 5.5, almost 2 higher than his career average of 3.4.   In comparison, his last year with the Mets in 1993, his K/9 was only 6.1 and he posted  2.93 ERA, but with   BB/9 of only 2.7.

Looking at his starts, it does seem like Regan may have pulled the trigger too early a few times. I see some starts where he pitched 3 or 4 innings, giving up ~3 runs.  I can't find Pit/IP, but I can find Pit/GS.  With the Mets, it was between 90-105 most years.  In 1994 with the Os it was 88, then 76 in 1995.  (I guess you can compute Pit/IP from IP/GS and Pit/GS, but I'm too lazy for that).  

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, Larry18 said:

Jack Quinn should get a nod even though he threw a legal spitball.

Love the reference, but Quinn had 18 and 26 wins (the 26 was in the Federal League for the Baltimore Terrapins) in a season by the time he was 30.

[Larry18]

I thought Fernandez had a bum knee when he pitched for the O’s. 

[now]

On 4/16/2020 at 9:42 AM, DrungoHazewood said:

On another site I was reading someone mentioned Andy Van Slyke.  Really an excellent outfielder with the Pirates in the 1980s, a slashing line drive hitter and centerfielder. He was an Oriole for a few months, in 1995.  Phil Regan's team, his one year as a manager.  I'd forgotten how extensive the collection of stars were on that team.  The problem was most of them were terrible.  Just awful.  Many of them had the worst seasons of their careers.

There were the home grown or longer-term Orioles.  Cal, Raffy, Hoiles, Brady, Harold Baines.  Hammonds.  That was Jeff Manto's 15 minutes of fame.  Those guys were pretty good.

But they also had Van Slyke, Kevin Bass, Bobby Bonilla, Matt Nokes, Doug Jones, Jesse Orosco, Sid Fernandez, Jamie Moyer... that's more than 20 All Star games and a bunch of MVP and Cy Young votes among that group. Jones had 300 saves.  Moyer 269 wins and 638 starts.   Bass had a 14-year career and some MVP support in '86.  Fernandez got some Cy Young support in '86, led the league in winning perentage in '89. 

Bonilla and Orosco were the only ones who weren't a disaster. Van Slyke went 10-for-63 and was traded in June for the last four innings of Gene Harris. Bass had a .639 OPS. Moyer and Jones had ERAs over 5.00. Nokes hit .122. And Fernandez had a 7.39 ERA.

The 1928 A's finished in second place, and had eight Hall of Famers.  But Ty Cobb, Eddie Collins, and Tris Speaker were all over 40.  Got rid of them the next year and they tore past the Ruth/Gehrig Yanks.  The '95 Orioles were a poor man's '28 A's.  Once they dumped that great mass of washed up old guys they made the playoffs in '96.

The golden age of "veteranosity" and "playoff presence."
Shades too, of the 1983 Phillies with the old (mid-30s) Reds core, which our gang manhandled in the World Series.