How and when will MLB resume in 2020? Update: Owners Agree - Proposal Submitted to Union

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Don't want to upset their highly-paid All Star starters.  You can't tell Gerrit Cole and his $300M that he's pitching two innings every four days.  First, that's inefficient use of resources, second it might hurt his ego.

 

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Gerrit Cole pitching five innings is probably more effective per inning than an average reliever going one.  But if the O's use nine pitchers a game the gap is considerably less.

I've already stated that yes Cole would still start.  But that doesn't mean they would be using a five man rotation. 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Someone more industrious than myself could see if your theory is back by injury rates during strike shortened seasons.

It would be challenging to the extreme to try to control for the differences in the game in the years with shorter schedules (1994-95, 1981, 1972, 1918-19, and off and on prior to 1904).  Even 1995 has significant pitcher use differences from today.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I've already stated that yes Cole would still start.  But that doesn't mean they would be using a five man rotation. 

 

There would still be an effect.  Just muted to some degree.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It would be challenging to the extreme to try to control for the differences in the game in the years with shorter schedules (1994-95, 1981, 1972, 1918-19, and off and on prior to 1904).  Even 1995 has significant pitcher use differences from today.

You know I'm in the a little data is better than no data group.

Obviously it wouldn't prove anything, just might be interesting to look at.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You know I'm in the a little data is better than no data group.

Obviously it wouldn't prove anything, just might be interesting to look at.

And I believe that with a little data you can come to irrational conclusions.  I'm of the mind that statistically insignificant data is very often worse than subjective observation.  Actually, I'm not sure how anyone could dispute that.  If you watched Caleb Joseph at just the right time you'd think he was going to win the batting title.

Teasing out the impact of the '95 lockout on pitcher injury rates and its relevancy to today would be like trying to hear a single conversation from across a crowded convention center.

[UpstateNYfan]

No matter how the season works out it will always have an asterisk (fake IMO). If baseball wants to experiment with things it might make it more interesting. Every team use the DH (or not), change extra innings, use the electronic balls and strikes, maybe a permanent realignment of some sort. I hope it all works out. It will certainly be an experiment for the NFL and college football.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

And I believe that with a little data you can come to irrational conclusions.  I'm of the mind that statistically insignificant data is very often worse than subjective observation.  Actually, I'm not sure how anyone could dispute that.  If you watched Caleb Joseph at just the right time you'd think he was going to win the batting title.

Teasing out the impact of the '95 lockout on pitcher injury rates and its relevancy to today would be like trying to hear a single conversation from across a crowded convention center.

I refuse to simply dismiss data. 

All properly collected data is to some degree useful, it just needs to be taken into proper context.

[Going Underground]

The Orioles are supposed to make an announcement today on refunds for tickets.

[atomic]

Dr Fauci says sports teams might have to skip a season.  Instant testing would have to exist to an extent it doesn't take away from testing in the community.  Sorry baseball doesn't sound like much hope for a season.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/sports/fauci-sports-reopening-pandemic.html?

I think MLB, NHL, and NBA are done.  College Football and Basketball will move to the spring.  I guess the only question is if the NFL season gets played. 

NFL could have its season from December to early May.  

MLB could have very few fans if it comes back in April of 2021 if College Football, College Basketball, NFL, NBA, and NHL are all playing.  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I refuse to simply dismiss data. 

All properly collected data is to some degree useful, it just needs to be taken into proper context.

I won't simply dismiss data.  I'll just determine if the context makes it worthwhile to use.  It's hard to get people to use data, but it's nearly impossible to get them to dismiss data that they've already accepted as evidence of their point of view. Thus the annual effort to get people to take someone's 1-for-16 at the start of the season and mix it with 800 PAs of prior data to achieve significance.  It's much easier and just about as accurate to tell people to not pay any attention to anything until May or June, except maybe a torn UCL or 6 mph difference in fastball velocity.

My guess about '95 injury rates is that good data is going to be nearly impossible to find and if you find it it will be unremarkable, well within normal ranges, and obscured by 25 years and countless truckloads of noise in the data.  You can round that off to "dismiss" if you'd like.

[DrungoHazewood]

59 minutes ago, atomic said:

Dr Fauci says sports teams might have to skip a season.  Instant testing would have to exist to an extent it doesn't take away from testing in the community.  Sorry baseball doesn't sound like much hope for a season.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/sports/fauci-sports-reopening-pandemic.html?

I think MLB, NHL, and NBA are done.  College Football and Basketball will move to the spring.  I guess the only question is if the NFL season gets played. 

NFL could have its season from December to early May.  

MLB could have very few fans if it comes back in April of 2021 if College Football, College Basketball, NFL, NBA, and NHL are all playing.  

Don't forget women's soccer. 

I think MLB plays 81 games plus playoffs.

[atomic]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

I think MLB plays 81 games plus playoffs.

In 2021? 

[DrungoHazewood]

34 minutes ago, atomic said:

In 2021? 

2020.

[Can_of_corn]

44 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Don't forget women's soccer. 

I think MLB plays 81 games plus playoffs.

I think 80 or 82 is a lot more likely.  Has to be an even number.

[Redskins Rick]

2 hours ago, Going Underground said:

The Orioles are supposed to make an announcement today on refunds for tickets.

MLB is allowing this now

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/04/mlb-will-permit-teams-to-develop-ticket-refund-policies.html