Tex or AJ

[geschinger]

I think it is more likely AJ will get what he wants vs Tex getting what he wants.

Hopefully you are right, but how often does Boras not get what he wants when he's holding the best hand?

I haven't studied it by my perception is that rarely, if ever does he end up failing to get gasps from observers when the contract is announced for his client when he has a premier FA.

[Old#5fan]

Excellent Point... I don't think we've had many if any pitching prospects who will rank as highly on the BA top 100 or other lists as those guys will. The likelyhood of MLB success is much higher for these guys than it ever was for previous "top" prospects in our org.

And they will be infinitely fortunate if even one of them (Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta) makes it to the major league level and achieves even a modest degree of success without being injured. Just look at Bedard, Lowen, and Penn for example. One pans out but only for trade purposes and now appears injury prone and possibly damaged goods, the next guy becomes permanently injured and cannot even pitch anymore, and the third guy either is injured physically, or weak mentally and never pans out, (or at least appears so at this point). Three highly touted prospects and look at the outcome - pitiful if you ask me!

If you want to pin the future hopes of the Orioles turning it around on prospects you would have better odds betting in Vegas at the roulette wheel. That is my two cents on this.

[Frobby]

I disagree about your MiL pitching assessment. Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta are far superior pitchers, talent wise, than anyone drafted since Ben McDonald.

Well, there was this guy named Mike Mussina....

Seriously, I think you are applying 20/20 hindsight here. Adam Loewen was plenty talented. Obviously Bedard was very talented. Matt Riley was extremely talented. Beau Hale had plenty of talent. At this point, what Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta have going for them is that they are healthy.

[Satyr3206]

Well, there was this guy named Mike Mussina....

Seriously, I think you are applying 20/20 hindsight here. Adam Loewen was plenty talented. Obviously Bedard was very talented. Matt Riley was extremely talented. Beau Hale had plenty of talent. At this point, what Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta have going for them is that they are healthy.

I don't remember where Mussina was ranked coming out of Stanford. I would have to go do some research. I'm mainly refering to their ranking based on scouting reports. Loewen and Riley always looked a little rough around the edges to me. Never saw Beau Hale.

[Frobby]

Sadly, I think as usual, the pitching prospects in this organization are wildly over valued on this forum by many posters, and to a degree the position prospects as well although not nearly as much. Just looking at past history should tell you that:

a. Orioles pitching prospects rarely translate into highly sucessful major leaguers due to a number of reasons: lack of talent being one, inability to stay healthy being another, and inability to throw strikes even if they do have major league stuff

b. What is going to make that change?

c. We have had Eric Bedard and that is about it, ouit of all the pitching prospects to really pan out and now it appears his only real value was in a trade as had we hung on to him even he appears possibly worthless due to health issues. Adam Lowen was another example of hanging hopes on a highly touted and drafted prospect. To do this is nuts, when history shows that the Orioles are unsucessful the majority of times in developing starting pitching. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. This is what you have here.

So in summary, I am discounting totally anything significantly coming from any of the minor league so-called pitching prospects. If even one pans out I consider it a bonus. Now, moving forward Mr. McPhail needs to get busy and either sign some bonifide major league starters or trade for some. Time is always of the essence.

I might disagree with the absoluteness with which you state your position, but in general I don't disagree with anything you say. Of the three "stud" pitchers, both Arrieta and Tillman have relatively high BB rates that could limit their effectiveness when they reach the majors. Matusz is reputed to have very good command, but we'll have to see it at a professional level. And of course there is always a risk of injury for any of these guys. That is why I agree we need to go out and get some pitching.

Fact is, if you end up with a surplus of good pitchers, that's a good thing. It protects against injury risk, and you can always trade one. Better to err on that side than to hope that all the breaks fall your way.

[Old#5fan]

I might disagree with the absoluteness with which you state your position, but in general I don't disagree with anything you say. Of the three "stud" pitchers, both Arrieta and Tillman have relatively high BB rates that could limit their effectiveness when they reach the majors. Matusz is reputed to have very good command, but we'll have to see it at a professional level. And of course there is always a risk of injury for any of these guys. That is why I agree we need to go out and get some pitching.

Fact is, if you end up with a surplus of good pitchers, that's a good thing. It protects against injury risk, and you can always trade one. Better to err on that side than to hope that all the breaks fall your way.

Here is how I see it. If one out of three highly touted pitching prospects fortunately pans out even to the point of having trade value like Bedard, you are lucky. If you have one pan out like a Mussina you are beyond lucky, as he has been one out of thousand I would hazzer to guess of highly touted Orioles pitching prospects to potentially make the HOF as was Palmer.

So Mussina is not a good example as he is rarified air. The three I gave are more typical examples in Bedard, Lowen, and Penn. Just look at those and I espouse that we need at least 9 prospects of the Tillman, Airrieta, Matusz caliber before I would reasonably expect the Orioles could fill their own starting rotation from within. Even with that number, I would sill fully anticipate the need to get a free agent or trade for a proven veteran as I don't consider that realistically to be a surplus. Certainly not just having those three would be a surplus. No way.

[Frobby]

Here is how I see it. If one out of three highly touted pitching prospects fortunately pans out even to the point of having trade value like Bedard, you are lucky. If you have one pan out like a Mussina you are beyond lucky, as he has been one out of thousand I would hazzer to guess of highly touted Orioles pitching prospects to potentially make the HOF as was Palmer.

So Mussina is not a good example as he is rarified air. The three I gave are more typical examples in Bedard, Lowen, and Penn. Just look at those and I espouse that we need at least 9 prospects of the Tillman, Airrieta, Matusz caliber before I would reasonably expect the Orioles could fill their own starting rotation from within. Even with that number, I would sill fully anticipate the need to get a free agent or trade for a proven veteran as I don't consider that realistically to be a surplus. Certainly not just having those three would be a surplus. No way.

Put another way, it would be quite lucky if Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta all panned out as we hope. And we can't afford to rely on luck, even though teams do occasionally get lucky.

[ChaosLex]

That's kinda cool. I didn't know the mods could merge a poll thread into an already existing thread.

/The More You Know!

[Old#5fan]

AJ. Tex would be nice but i just beleive the cost will turn off Angelos. Even though Tex is a native son. IMO pitching is more important at this time for the O's.

Spot on correct by a mile.

[Old#5fan]

Put another way, it would be quite lucky if Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta all panned out as we hope. And we can't afford to rely on luck, even though teams do occasionally get lucky.

I think it will be quite lucky if even one of the three pans out as we hope. The odds are tremendous that one will be permanently injured, one will simply not suceed (lack of talent at the big league level) and one might make it, but to what degree of sucess is pure speculation.

[Sports Guy]

I think it will be quite lucky if even one of the three pans out as we hope. The odds are tremendous that one will be permanently injured, one will simply nnot suceed (lack of talent at the big league level) and one might make it, but to what degree of sucess is pure speculation.

I don't know if I would use the word lucky here but I agree the odds are against all 3 making it.

However, that doesn't change the idea here.

First of all, Tex improves the team more than AJ does...That isn't really disputable.

Secondly, whether the odds are against it or not, we have a lot of pitching depth and we have pretty much zero positional talent and as of right now, we don't have an IF for 2010.

Tex is just much more important to us, long term, than any 1 pitcher is that is available on the market.

Because if you want to talk about odds and what is likely to happen, well the odds are against AJ being a very solid starter for the next 5 years.

[Mike B]

Absolutely true. BTW, Tex really got the Angels far in post season! :rolleyes:Its all about the pitching fellows!

As the late great Rex Barney used to say. "Pitching and defense" wins championships". Until we can pitch, we can not win. It really is that simple.

[Mike B]

Just because you don't understand the argument and don't recognize the talent we have in the minors, pitching wise, doesn;t mean it is a pointless and baseless argument.

It just means you continue to show this board your total ignorance about the game and the Orioles organization.

Just because Old 5 Fan does not agree with you does not make him ignorant about the game or the organization. Don't make it personal. Diagreement on opinions are what these boards run on. Just because you or I, think it to be true does not make it true.

One other point, we do have a stockpile of potential major league pitchers but until that potential develops into positive major league results we have nothing. Even Wieters who is our minor league shining star can not be counted as a sure thing yet. Many, IMO have correctly identified the need for a solid, veteran backup catcher to help develop Wieters. Even more so we need to bring in at least 2 solid major league starters to allow our young pitchers to arrive at the right time and grow properly. As it is now, our pitching is awful. Before anything else, it must be stabalized. It is fine to disagree with that, but if you want to just add a Paul Bryd or two than do not complain when the team goes 70-92 next year, even with Tex.

[Mike B]

Exactly.... Greatly exaggerting what they may get simply to illustrate the point, but say it took 4/52 to sign AJ and 10/220 to sign Tex... Then the answer is Burnett and it is an easy choice.

Well said. Signing Tex without improving the sorry pitching leaves us at season #12 in a long losing run. The pitching must be addressed. Fix the starting pithing and our BP (healthy) and augmented by a long man or two from our minor league starters ( i.e. Liz and Penn) would be adequate or better and would stay fresher longer.

Leave the pitching alone and by late July of next year the board will be firing DT and Kranitz as just another manager and pitcching coach who were not able to win with the incredible talent that has been on site.

[Old#5fan]

Just because Old 5 Fan does not agree with you does not make him ignorant about the game or the organization. Don't make it personal. Diagreement on opinions are what these boards run on. Just because you or I, think it to be true does not make it true.

One other point, we do have a stockpile of potential major league pitchers but until that potential develops into positive major league results we have nothing. Even Wieters who is our minor league shining star can not be counted as a sure thing yet. Many, IMO have correctly identified the need for a solid, veteran backup catcher to help develop Wieters. Even more so we need to bring in at least 2 solid major league starters to allow our young pitchers to arrive at the right time and grow properly. As it is now, our pitching is awful. Before anything else, it must be stabalized. It is fine to disagree with that, but if you want to just add a Paul Bryd or two than do not complain when the team goes 70-92 next year, even with Tex.

In my time reading and posting here, truer words have never been posted by anyone.