John Means 2021

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, Pickles said:

Rather than get hung up on the terminology, the most important thing to acknowledge is that Means is/has proven that 19 wasn't a fluke and that he is indeed a legit, good ML starting pitcher.

 

This is the best point made thus far.  
 

I have said several times that the best thing we saw in 2020 was the velocity increase from Means.  That velocity increase has stayed this year and that really elevates his game. 
 

I thought he would really drop off in the second half of 2019 and while he did drop off, he ended very well overall.  Even though the results were mixed last year, I still felt very good about him.  I think he certainly has established himself as a very good pitcher and is no longer a fluke.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I can see the O's signing Means for 5 years this off season.  Buyout two years of his FA year.  Take him throw age 32.   He is a cornerstone of the rebuild and the next contending team.

After this year the O's only have one year of Davis at 23M.  Probably with him paid out as soon as they know whether there is a work stoppage next season.   Cobb's 10m will be off the books next year.  Fans is the stands next year the O's revenue will be up.    The O's will have money to spend.  Means will be a wise investment.

Revenue will be up?

Honest question are they selling out the limited capacity games?

[fansince1988]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Revenue will be up?

Honest question are they selling out the limited capacity games?

No, not even close. Only averaging 7,500 through 8 games so far.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, fansince1988 said:

No, not even close. Only averaging 7,500 through 8 games so far.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance

Thanks.

I wouldn't plan around a big bump in revenue from higher attendance next season.

 

[MurphDogg]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Revenue will be up?

Honest question are they selling out the limited capacity games?

They aren't necessarily trying to completely sell them out though. They are using dynamic pricing, which means that they are holding some seats back for ridiculous prices.

You can buy tickets from the Orioles in the lower box for tonight's game, but it will cost $175 per ticket and you have to buy four tickets. The handful of remaining left field upper reserve is $25. Upper reserve (pretty much all in the 20th+ row) is $30. You can sit as close as the 10th row of the left field home run area as long as you are willing to shell out $54 a ticket.

And this is for a "select" game, not a prime game, when the prices would be even higher.

[fansince1988]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

They aren't necessarily trying to completely sell them out though. They are using dynamic pricing, which means that they are holding some seats back for ridiculous prices.

You can buy tickets from the Orioles in the lower box for tonight's game, but it will cost $175 per ticket and you have to buy four tickets. Even left field upper reserve is $25-30. You can sit as close as the 10th row of the left field home run area as long as you are willing to shell out $54 a ticket.

And this is for a "select" game, not a prime game, when the prices would be even higher.

Dynamic pricing is here to stay, so I won't complain too much about it. But it is a huge reason not to run up to the ballpark on a whim. What will the prices be today? 

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, fansince1988 said:

Dynamic pricing is here to stay, so I won't complain too much about it. But it is a huge reason not to run up to the ballpark on a whim. What will the prices be today? 

I think they are trying to push everyone onto the membership plan where tickets are a fixed price (and they have more cost certainty, knowing that members will spend a certain level). They are probably overdoing it with the price difference between members and single game ticket buyers, but I'm sure they are trying to figure out the sweet spot.

It makes sense to take extra money from Yankees fans, I doubt many O's fans are looking to buy single game tickets for tonight's game anyway.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I think they are trying to push everyone onto the membership plan where tickets are a fixed price (and they have more cost certainty, knowing that members will spend a certain level). They are probably overdoing it with the price difference between members and single game ticket buyers, but I'm sure they are trying to figure out the sweet spot.

It makes sense to take extra money from Yankees fans, I doubt many O's fans are looking to buy single game tickets for tonight's game anyway.

My overarching point still stands.  Demand is down for tickets. 

The attendance in 2019 was 1.3M.  No reason to assume that 2022 will even reach that.

You don't add payroll betting on that kind of number.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My overarching point still stands.  Demand is down for tickets. 

The attendance in 2019 was 1.3M.  No reason to assume that 2022 will even reach that.

You don't add payroll betting on that kind of number.

It’s down because the team sucks (at least that’s a big part of it). Whenever this team improves, the attendance will go up.

It SHOULD be an even better product in 2022, so I think it starts to go back up.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s down because the team sucks (at least that’s a big part of it). Whenever this team improves, the attendance will go up.

It SHOULD be an even better product in 2022, so I think it starts to go back up.

We have no guarantee that the team will even make an effort to be competitive in 2022.

Also increases in attendance lags behind improvement on the field.  You know as well as anyone that season ticket sales are the key.

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Thanks.

I wouldn't plan around a big bump in revenue from higher attendance next season.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens this year with attendance.   Taking myself as an example, I am not attending any games in April because I was vaccinated only recently and the two-week waiting period hadn’t expired.   But I definitely plan to attend games beginning in May.   I expect there are many others who will do the same as me.   And then there’s the question of whether the allowed capacity will be increased at some point.   I know the Orioles have only given my ticket group tickets for April and May and we had a cutback in our allocation of games, but they apparently are hoping restrictions will be loosened before June.   

[Aristotelian]

Has anyone comped Means to Mark Buehrle? Both lefty SP's working primarily off FB/changeup without overpowering stuff but good command and great deception. Buehrle was never an ace (only Cy Young votes in one year, 2005) but was a reliable plus SP who pitched for a long time and amassed 60 WAR. Digging deeper, both throw FB about 50% of the time, changeup about 25% (Buehrle had more of a cutter while Means has a slider). Both have plus command with around 2.0 BB/9. Means gets a lot more K's but that may partially be a reflection of the hitters. 

Anyway, IMO Means is the best pitcher we have had in a long time, including the 2014 and 2016 teams. Maybe not an ace but I think he qualifies as "top of the rotation" and would be the #1 on an average MLB staff. 

[LocoChris]

Means throws harder than Buehrle. Buehrle was very good but he was definitely a finesse, contact guy. 

[sportsfan8703]

Means also helps the bullpen. Having a SP like Means allows the rest of the team to fall into place. The pen can be rested and managed a different way. We might not need the extra long man in the pen. Then that extra roster spot can go to a position player matchup/defensive upgrade. 
 

Having a stabilizing force like him really helps the team even on days he’s not pitching. 

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, LocoChris said:

Means throws harder than Buehrle. Buehrle was very good but he was definitely a finesse, contact guy. 

So you're saying Means will be better?  You are right, Buerhle threw softer than I remember and Means' velocity has ticked up. Still Means is not exactly Nolan Ryan. We are talking 92-93.