O's future is based on pitching prospects

[oriolediehard]

The O's future depends on how their minor league pitching prospects develope. I know I am speaking the obvious. I am hoping to hear all your opinions on this. I worry that they may struggle like Akin.

[SteveA]

Just now, oriolediehard said:

The O's future depends on how their minor league pitching prospects develope. I know I am speaking the obvious. I am hoping to hear all your opinions on this. I worry that they may struggle like Akin.

First of all, yes, of course they may struggle early.   That happens with young pitchers, even really good ones.   Look at some early years for Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, and others.   Casey Mize came up last year and put up an ERA near 7, this year it is under 4.  Clayton Kershaw was over 4 in 21 starts in his rookie year and has NEVER been over 3.36 in the 13 years since.  Shane Bieber is similar.  Then there are dozens of pitchers whose pattern is that they do well as a rookie, then the league has a book on them, and year 2 is quite a bit worse, and then they get better in year 3.   Examples include Aaron Nola, Tyler Glasnow.

A few guys DO come up and immediately hit the ground running and are good from the start.   But they aren't the majority, even among premium pitching prospects.

But beyond that -- Akin was not as highly regarded a prospect as the guys behind him, or even as Dean Kremer, by most people.   His story isn't written, he may get through this and become a competent major league starter.   But I wouldn't equate his struggles this year with DL Hall or Grayson Rodriguez, those guys are at a different level.

[Sports Guy]

No it’s not.  
 

How many pitching prospects propelled the Astros to a WS win?

[Explosivo]

It’s like everything you say SG is contrary to what the Orioles should do or how to win. Look up the Pirates from the early 70s. We are about to see the Orioles follow the same blueprint. It’ll be fun, I just wish you could wrap your head around how baseball teams are built and what it takes to create a window of opportunity. It actually is amazing how wrong you are, continually.

[Philip]

All I know is that I want to see the pitching prospects. All the malarkey from guys who cover the team who say that there’s no replacement for Harvey is just as ridiculous as it can be. There is no reason not to call up the guys, one at a time, in order of availability, And throw them into the fray.

We don’t have any elite prospects on the cusp, so service time considerations are irrelevant. But we do need to know what to do with the crush we’re going to have on the 40 man, and no better time to find out then now.

[Explosivo]

I highly recommend the podcast On the Verge. They cover the potential prospects better than any beat writer paid to cover the Orioles that I can find. I trust their analysis more as well. They have a great deep dive of our top 30 and fringe top 30 prospects as the DSL and GCL are starting up.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Grow the arms, buy the bats?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Grow the arms, buy the bats?

We are growing the bats..likely will have to buy the arms, like Houston essentially did.

Not a bad way to go imo.  Developing hitting is easier.

[Ripken]

There are a few good starter prospects and a bunch of interesting position players in the org.  The Orioles have no payroll at all.  FA money and trades will fill out some of the rotation.  Works for me.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No it’s not.  
 

How many pitching prospects propelled the Astros to a WS win?

Yeah, but we're not about to spend on FA pitchers, at least not with this ownership group.   

Maybe we can trade for some.  I dunno, I understand the sentiment in the OP, I also understand why you don't agree with it.  But, IMO, I think G-Rod and Hall have to produce if we want to get anywhere.  

[Frobby]

Let’s put it this way - the easiest path for sustained contention is if a couple of pitching prospects pan out big time and some others are able to contribute.   I wouldn’t say it’s the only way, but it’s the simplest path.   

[Gentile4]

We also don't have Altuve, Bregman, Springer, and Correa waiting in the minors to transform the big club.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, but we're not about to spend on FA pitchers, at least not with this ownership group.   

Maybe we can trade for some.  I dunno, I understand the sentiment in the OP, I also understand why you don't agree with it.  But, IMO, I think G-Rod and Hall have to produce if we want to get anywhere.  

If at least a couple of the pitching prospects develop into reliable & quality starters, then this rebuild gets a lot easier. You don't want to be in a position where you have to sign or trade for your top four starting pitchers in the rotation. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Gentile4 said:

We also don't have Altuve, Bregman, Springer, and Correa waiting in the minors to transform the big club.

I will laugh though if Elias loses it talking to reporters and blows up like Rick Pitino did when he coached the Celtics.

"Jose Altuve is not walking through that door. Carlos Correa is not walking through that door..."

 

[Just Regular]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I will laugh though if Elias loses it talking to reporters and blows up like Rick Pitino did when he coached the Celtics.

"Jose Altuve is not walking through that door. Carlos Correa is not walking through that door..."

 

Its funny you put it that way because if Mullins, Means, Adley, Grayson, etc. can by their play the final 3-4 months command ownership and the front office to value them as a 2022 nucleus, Correa and Altuve are two talents that would fit the build.

I will grant the Astros have been better than I thought they would be this year (happy for Dusty, and thankful for him doing a job for MLB!), and no longer as sure the drumbeats will take all their good players to other cities.   I think they paid pretty high for Baez and McCullers, and even Odorizzi who probably would have done worse without spring Houston injuries helping him.   

We'll see if Correa, Greinke and Verlander give Houston any more consideration than Springer did, and if their Latin American young arms skew towards getting figured out or making the old guys less important.