2021 Draft Thread

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Stotle said:

To me that looks like the Orioles are relying heavily on models and there was better college data (though not perfect) than there was high school data this year because of all of the COVID stuff. I'm still scratching my head about the total spend and trying to figure out how they can spend even their full pool amount, let alone dip into the permitted overage, based on who they drafted. I don't think it's a bad draft I just am not clear as to how they are deploying funds here.

Could the plan be to not spend the full allotment?

[Sydnor]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Could the plan be to not spend the full allotment?

This has been my theory—the kids told him he could only spend $10 million or so.

[waroriole]

Not that it matters for us, but is there a limit on what you can pay an undrafted FA?

[osravensfan78]

Yeah, I tried to stay positive during this process but I’ve lost it. I don’t understand this draft at all. I feel like we went underslot with our first pick and never used the money to go overslot. The Pirates draft just makes me even more upset. One thing that was keeping me interested this year was draft positioning, but honestly what’s what’s the point in that anymore. I defended last years strategy because it made sense with 5 rounds and we used the money. I don’t see it this year. I do like Norby a lot, but that’s really the only pick I liked. I hope I’m wrong, but this really put a downer on the rebuild for me. Again, I hope I’m wrong. 

[Pat Kelly]

Mike Elias when questioned about this draft and finally admits he was just saving money.

 

 

[Getz]

They don't even seem to go BPA. They drafted 1 pitcher in the first 10 rounds and then drafted 7 pitchers in the last 10. I guess it is what the analytics tell them, but it's confusing.

[glenn__davis]

21 minutes ago, Getz said:

It just looks like they have no idea what they're doing.

I'm not a blind defender of Elias by any stretch, but one thing I'm certain of...he's not an idiot.  He understands this business and knows what he wants to do.

We'll have to let the signings all play out.  My hunch is that a few of those guys he took in picks 2-10 are going to cost more than people expected and thus there really wasn't the alleged savings from the 1st 2 days.

Or, he was told he could only spend a certain amount of money.  Which would be oh so disheartening, so let's hope it's not that.

[Stotle]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Could the plan be to not spend the full allotment?

Possible, but more likely Trimble/Rhodes and even Willems cost way more than expected? If the system points that way and they pan out then nothing to complain about. That's a lot of trust in your modeling, for sure, because there are some traditional measures that would consider those profiles a little more high risk than you'd want to make big over-slot investments in, I'd think.

[Getz]

2 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I'm not a blind defender of Elias by any stretch, but one thing I'm certain of...he's not an idiot.  He understands this business and knows what he wants to do.

We'll have to let the signings all play out.  My hunch is that a few of those guys he took in picks 2-5 are going to cost more than people expected and thus there really wasn't the alleged savings from the 1st 2 days.

Or, he was told he could only spend a certain amount of money.  Which would be oh so disheartening, so let's hope it's not that.

I'm not hating on Elias, I even defended him after the Cowswer pick. But after watching day 2 and 3 you can't deny this draft class is a bit of a head-scratcher.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Stotle said:

Possible, but more likely Trimble/Rhodes and even Willems cost way more than expected? If the system points that way and they pan out then nothing to complain about. That's a lot of trust in your modeling, for sure, because there are some traditional measures that would consider those profiles a little more high risk than you'd want to make big over-slot investments in, I'd think.

Is there possibly anything globally to the idea many of today's selections would have been 6th-20th rounders last year, and what the selecting teams know because of COVID is that at least their arms are healthy and firing at Age X + 1?   

Not sure if the Injury Nexus in the early 20's is much in fashion, but many of today's Orioles picks are closer to being past it.

[glenn__davis]

The "On the Verge" review of Day 2 mentioned that the Orioles think their swing analysis/correction program is the best in the league.

I wondering if Elias and Sig understand that the cat's out of the bag when it comes to pitchers and using data/spin rates to increase their performance, and they now think that they're onto something regarding swing evaluation that everyone else hasn't caught up to yet.  So that, sort of similar to Moneyball, that's the new market inefficency.  So they take guys with high exit velocities but higher than wanted K-rates, figuring that they can use their program and data to fix their swing.

Just a very speculative guess.  But I figure Sig has to be doing something since everyone else is on to pitching analytics now.

[glenn__davis]

2 minutes ago, Getz said:

I'm not hating on Elias, I even defended him after the Cowswer pick. But after watching day 2 and 3 you can't deny this draft class is a bit of a head-scratcher.

Oh I don't disagree at all.  I'm just saying we'll have to wait until the dust settles and see what these guys sign for.

[Just Regular]

With the late draft, believe I saw signing deadline only like 2-3 weeks off so there should be plenty of grist for the mill in fairly good time allotment evaluation wise.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, glenn__davis said:

Oh I don't disagree at all.  I'm just saying we'll have to wait until the dust settles and see what these guys sign for.

At least that information is publicly available.

[Black_and_Orange]

Is it safe to say that this is the lowest ceiling draft the Orioles have had in the past 20 years?

It's probably the lowest number of HS kids (1) selected