2021 Draft Thread

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Rounding error?

It was about the same amount of money they saved getting rid of their pitching coach from last season. 

Evidently they think it's a worthwhile amount to worry about.

Of course with how strong the pitching has been you can't really fault them for that decision. 

I’ve never bought the explanation that they fired the pitching coach for budgetary reasons.   In my opinion that may have been something they told him to avoid saying they didn’t think he was the man for the job.  But I sure can’t say that replacing him with Holt has led to tangible improvement.   

In any event, it’s easy to see how you might not spend $100-$200 k out of $13 mm just by negotiating slightly better deals than you budgeted for.  But if Nick Faleris is correct that we were $1.7 - 2.3 mm under slot going into today, and we didn’t use any of it to acquire overslot players, that is a whole different can of corn (see what I did there?).
 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never bought the explanation that they fired the pitching coach for budgetary reasons.   In my opinion that may have been something they told him to avoid saying they didn’t think he was the man for the job.  But I sure can’t say that replacing him with Holt has led to tangible improvement.   

In any event, it’s easy to see how you might not spend $100-$200 k out of $13 mm just by negotiating slightly better deals than you budgeted for.  But if Nick Faleris is correct that we were $1.7 - 2.3 mm under slot going into today, and we didn’t use any of it to acquire overslot players, that is a whole different can of corn (see what I did there?).
 

I don't understand why, when you say it was because of money, folks don't "buy" that explanation.

I've never heard of another team in any sport citing money as the reason for letting a coach (not head) go.

I see no reason to think they were lying about it.  I don't think it paints the team in a positive light to make that statement.

[Just Regular]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But if Nick Faleris is correct that we were $1.7 - 2.3 mm under slot going into today, and we didn’t use any of it to acquire overslot players, that is a whole different can of corn (see what I did there?).

My guess is the outcomes will reflect price points showing just how much stronger the Orioles' models were on these selections than even Nick's forecasts.

I don't read much into Ciolek giving a "high percentage" quote because this hour in the cases of Rhodes, Willems, etc., their representation is probably happily digesting the news one club liked them a fair bit more than Any Given Website's consensus.

BPA comes up a lot here, and the Ravens shine but the NFL's slotting system makes it something else entirely.   I chuckled at the MLB.com draft tracker's "Slot Value" column, as if the league is trying to wish it into reality.   They've regulated expenses in the aggregate only.

Having had the COVID year to do nothing but look at the draft, it really drove home the draft selections in large part are just who do your club's models like better than the other 29 teams.    And of course we know Elias will negotiate tough with each one and save that rounding error if he can.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't understand why, when you say it was because of money, folks don't "buy" that explanation.

I've never heard of another team in any sport citing money as the reason for letting a coach (not head) go.

I see no reason to think they were lying about it.  I don't think it paints the team in a positive light to make that statement.

Show me where the Orioles publicly said this.   I don’t recall they did.   I believe this was the coach’s account of what he was told.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Show me where the Orioles publicly said this.   I don’t recall they did.   I believe this was the coach’s account of what he was told.  

You are probably right, I'll cede the point.

Still, I've never heard of it happening elsewhere.

[SteveA]

If the new CBA winds up setting an age threshold for free agency rather than a service time threshold, we might lose some of today's picks to free agency before they ever make the majors.

[Sports Guy]

I’m old enough to remember people telling me I should be fine with this draft and we will get overslot guys.

[Stotle]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never bought the explanation that they fired the pitching coach for budgetary reasons.   In my opinion that may have been something they told him to avoid saying they didn’t think he was the man for the job.  But I sure can’t say that replacing him with Holt has led to tangible improvement.   

In any event, it’s easy to see how you might not spend $100-$200 k out of $13 mm just by negotiating slightly better deals than you budgeted for.  But if Nick Faleris is correct that we were $1.7 - 2.3 mm under slot going into today, and we didn’t use any of it to acquire overslot players, that is a whole different can of corn (see what I did there?).
 

To be clear, my assumption was that the sophomores were drafted at reasonable spots and shouldn't require material additional bonus investment, Willems was max like a $200-300K investment, Cowser at a $200-300K discount, and that included the additional $600K they could spend above the slot amounts. So if they as a rule won't go about total slot,  that drops to $1.1-1.7MM.

So, if Cowser is slot, that drops it to $.8 - 1.1 MM. Maybe the sophomores actually cost $800K extra between them and Willems is like a$400-500K guy in their mind? I think that's what you'd have to see in order for there not to be leftover. If that's what the modeling/analytics point them to, then let the cards fall where they may and see how it turns out. But it does seem like, based on market value, those would be overpays based on how the industry values those profiles. Ultimately, if the O's are right about it that's all that matters. 

Just wanted to explain the calculations...

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Stotle said:

To be clear, my assumption was that the sophomores were drafted at reasonable spots and shouldn't require material additional bonus investment, Willems was max like a $200-300K investment, Cowser at a $200-300K discount, and that included the additional $600K they could spend above the slot amounts. So if they as a rule won't go about total slot,  that drops to $1.1-1.7MM.

So, if Cowser is slot, that drops it to $.8 - 1.1 MM. Maybe the sophomores actually cost $800K extra between them and Willems is like a$400-500K guy in their mind? I think that's what you'd have to see in order for there not to be leftover. If that's what the modeling/analytics point them to, then let the cards fall where they may and see how it turns out. But it does seem like, based on market value, those would be overpays based on how the industry values those profiles. Ultimately, if the O's are right about it that's all that matters. 

Just wanted to explain the calculations...

Thanks, Nick.   Very nice to hear from you, by the way.   It’s been a while.   I enjoy reading the stuff your site puts out.  Glad to see you’re still taking an interest in the O’s!

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never bought the explanation that they fired the pitching coach for budgetary reasons.   In my opinion that may have been something they told him to avoid saying they didn’t think he was the man for the job.  But I sure can’t say that replacing him with Holt has led to tangible improvement.   

In any event, it’s easy to see how you might not spend $100-$200 k out of $13 mm just by negotiating slightly better deals than you budgeted for.  But if Nick Faleris is correct that we were $1.7 - 2.3 mm under slot going into today, and we didn’t use any of it to acquire overslot players, that is a whole different can of corn (see what I did there?).
 

OK, there's the kernel of a point there.

I feel compelled to mention that if you're planning to sell the team, every dollar you could have spent on drafted players but didn't, whether it's $100,000 or $2.3 million, goes into the owner's pocket and will be part of his estate, with no need to make it up in future expenditures and no impact on the proceeds from the sale.

[Sports Guy]

Hopefully some of the guys drafted today can move quickly as BP arms.

[webbrick2010]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

OK, there's the kernel of a point there.

I feel compelled to mention that if you're planning to sell the team, every dollar you could have spent on drafted players but didn't, whether it's $100,000 or $2.3 million, goes into the owner's pocket and will be part of his estate, with no need to make it up in future expenditures and no impact on the proceeds from the sale.

My only hope... that all of these budget minimizations are laying the foundation for a sale to new ownership. I think most of us agree that the O's will never field a WS champion under Angelos ownership.

[Three Run Homer]

I've been away from my computer for most of the day and am only catching up now.  I must say it's heartbreaking to read the last 10 pages or so of this thread.  Most of us (myself included) were so optimistic that the O's were going to get some overslot guys on day 3, and instead we wind up with a bunch of college pitchers who aren't on anyone's list of top prospects.   

After the Cowser pick, I joked that I felt like a kid who got a savings bond for Christmas.  Now I feel like a kid whose parents were too drunk to remember to buy Christmas presents.  

[Brooks The Great]

17 hours ago, cnmilton said:

The Orioles 2021 draft reminds me a lot of the mid 2010s Ray Farmer analytics led Cleveland Browns drafts.... lots of draft picks which had a lot of industry professionals scratching their heads. Hopefully Mike Elias is much more successful than Ray Farmer

Oh you mean the same Cleveland Browns that have now turned into a winning franchise?

[Hazmat]

6 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Oh you mean the same Cleveland Browns that have now turned into a winning franchise?

The Browns are on at least their 3rd GM since Farmer's tenure ended in 2015.  Under Farmer's successor, the Browns went 1-31.