Is Grayson Rodriguez our no. 1 prospect now?

[interloper]

40 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You don't judge a player by any hot or cold streak but how the numbers all shake out. At the end of the day, Rutschman is doing fine, but certainly not dominating with his .269/.394/.476/.869 at 23 years old in AA. He's also thrown out 33% of his runners (fine but not dominant) and while he's a very good receiver (I think he'll be a very good framer if that matters by the time he's in the majors) his blocking is average, but he's not a wall back there.

Overall I like what Rutschman has done, but I was hoping for more from him offensively. Matt Wieters slashed .288/.340/.412/.753 at the major league level after slashing .305/.387/.504/.891 in AAA at 23 years old. Yes, Rutschman has a lost season (though he did have Alternate camp time) but if he had dominated AA like Wieters did, he's be in AAA right now instead of trading water in AA.

You also want to see players get better at a level. Over Rutschman's last 28 days, he's slashed .225/.319/.375/.694 with two home runs in 92 PAs. These stats hardly scream out "I'm ready for promotion". I've been purposely trying to watch every Rutschman and Stowers PAs lately and Rutschman swings through a lot of very hittable low 90s fastballs. Now maybe he's just not seeing the ball well right now, but I don't see pitchers afraid to challenge him in we're talking AA pitchers with 90-92 MPH fastballs.

When he was hot and seeing the ball well from mid-May to mid-June when he slashed .337/.437/.582/1.019 with seven of his 12 homers, he was barreling the ball up well and was locked in, but he's really struggled to find that consistency since. They seem to be getting him with high fastballs and then changeups away when batting lefty where's he's slashed just .241/.365/.425/.790 against righties this season. 

He has a tremendous eye which gets him in trouble sometimes when umpires call balls that are probably just off the plate strikes occasionally. I swear I've never seen a guy who seems to bat with two strikes in every count whether it's because he takes very hittable pitches, fouls them off or swings through them. He swing rate is probably pretty good overall because he rarely swings at pitches out of the zone or gets totally fooled, which is a good thing, but he does swing and miss or foul off more than I would like with very hittable pitches in the zone.

Basically I see a guy who is very much still learning at the plate.

CC @Can_of_corn I mean, this is what I've been talking about all year. I know you're arguing different things, but this is the most succinct summary of why I think it makes sense to keep Adley down to develop. This basically confirms what I thought I saw in spring training - his bat is not as dominant as maybe we thought. At least not yet. AA is absolutely an appropriate level for him right now and will be until he lights it up.

The 33% CS is also kind of a bummer, I have to say. But I think his framing will be the best we've seen out of an Orioles catcher since people started tracking that kind of thing. 

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

The king of the small sample size whining about 52 at bats.  

 

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's remember, when Rutschman was 21, he didn't even put up good numbers against Low-A competition.

 

54 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Basically I see a guy who is very much still learning at the plate.

I'm with Frobby, Tony and others here. This isn't about 52 ABs. He's flashed awesome, but the general trend with the bat is great discipline but generally a good, not great, hitter. I do really like that we have Rutschman and I think he'll be better overall than Wieters, but I don't see an offensive force like a Goldschmidt (random pull from a couple of years ago).

I do think the last point about still learning could be key. The Baysox are remaking swings, I think. It is quite possible that they're working with AR and he has a lot going through his head. He could come out the other side a better hitter for sure, so I do think his ceiling is still VERY high. I just think Grayson is closer to performing at that level.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

He has a tremendous eye which gets him in trouble sometimes when umpires call balls that are probably just off the plate strikes occasionally.

This is the stuff of that story a few weeks back where I think Blood or somebody gave quotes about how minor league umpires aren't that great, and Orioles batters "should" make the right swing decision regardless.

Even with every Monday off, I wonder a little if 62 out of 64 games and mid-Atlantic July swelter are a little bit of it, along with ennui psychobabble if he already does have intel from the club its going to be 2022-2028.

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

Are we taking Witt for either today?   With Wander graduating, who will stop them making a run at 1-2 in the offseason lists?   Just perusing MLB's today:

Grayson just got the better of Torkelson

Kelenic will graduate

Julio Rodriguez will be tough competition, along with Witt

Gore and Pearson are not shining.   I don't know how CJ Abrams year is going except that no one has been trolling about him the last few weeks, so guessing he may be settling down some

Skimming MLB's 10-18 ahead of their #19 Grayson, my off the cuff was mostly the Buck trademark "Seriously?"

https://www.mlb.com/prospects

Agree with Tony's take that if Grayson were at Vanderbilt he'd have been the #1 guy and the 1-1 so no Henry Davis or Jack Leiter ascent to these kind of heights right away.

I think you are right. They look like 1-2 possibilities to me. Witt, Julio Rodriguez and Torkelson would round out my top 5 with Franco and Kelenic graduating and CJ Abrams out for the year.

Assuming both Grayson and Adley are promoted to AAA at some point, there are still two full months left in the season, so a lot of time to go.

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I think you are right. They look like 1-2 possibilities to me. Witt, Julio Rodriguez and Torkelson would round out my top 5 with Franco and Kelenic graduating and CJ Abrams out for the year.

Assuming both Grayson and Adley are promoted to AAA at some point, there are still two full months left in the season, so a lot of time to go.

I forgot about Shane Baz skyrocketing - ideally a Grayson-Baz August duel could be the hottest minors thing since Grayson-SWR.   Its like Grayson is working up Punch Out....with the Gerrit Cole head to head sometime next spring.

On its recent Midseason 50, BP went Grayson 12, Baz 13 as top two pitchers, then hedged with this blather:

A few years ago, we had a modest proposal in a rankings email chain from a staffer who now works for a team to do our national rankings as we like, and then just drop every pitcher 10-20 spots before publishing because of the risk and attrition rate. So yes, Rodriguez is the highest-rated arm on this list, but he still carries the “he’s a pitcher” risks. Anyway, if there’s a specific concern here, maybe none of the offspeeds ever becomes a true out pitch and he’s never a true front-of-the-rotation arm.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Are we taking Witt for either today?   With Wander graduating, who will stop them making a run at 1-2 in the offseason lists?   Just perusing MLB's today:

Grayson just got the better of Torkelson

Kelenic will graduate

Julio Rodriguez will be tough competition, along with Witt

Gore and Pearson are not shining.   I don't know how CJ Abrams year is going except that no one has been trolling about him the last few weeks, so guessing he may be settling down some

Skimming MLB's 10-18 ahead of their #19 Grayson, my off the cuff was mostly the Buck trademark "Seriously?"

https://www.mlb.com/prospects

Agree with Tony's take that if Grayson were at Vanderbilt he'd have been the #1 guy and the 1-1 so no Henry Davis or Jack Leiter ascent to these kind of heights right away.

 

Grayson has to be ranked ahead of Gore and Pearson.  Both of them have struggled in AAA.  It seemed like Toronto thought Pearson would hold down a rotation spot on the MLB club this year.  

[Gentile4]

A quick look at his game log seems to indicate Adley's hitting .176 while catching this year. 35 for 199. Apologies if my math is off. Yes, I know. He walks a lot.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

A quick look at his game log seems to indicate Adley's hitting .176 while catching this year. 35 for 199. Apologies if my math is off. Yes, I know. He walks a lot.

Damn, I'll have to take a look at that for sure. Thanks for the heads up. I already knew his left-handed hitting has not been what was expected, but it would really not be good if he struggles to hit while catching in the heat. Something to keep an eye on.

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

CC @Can_of_corn I mean, this is what I've been talking about all year. I know you're arguing different things, but this is the most succinct summary of why I think it makes sense to keep Adley down to develop. This basically confirms what I thought I saw in spring training - his bat is not as dominant as maybe we thought. At least not yet. AA is absolutely an appropriate level for him right now and will be until he lights it up.

The 33% CS is also kind of a bummer, I have to say. But I think his framing will be the best we've seen out of an Orioles catcher since people started tracking that kind of thing. 

I don't think there is anything he can learn at Bowie that he can't learn in Baltimore.  While improving the ML team.

If service time wasn't a thing and he was flat out under team control until his age 30 season would you want him learning in Bowie or Baltimore?

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think there is anything he can learn at Bowie that he can't learn in Baltimore.  While improving the ML team.

If service time wasn't a thing and he was flat out under team control until his age 30 season would you want him learning in Bowie or Baltimore?

I think Bowie. Because I would worry that he comes up, gets overwhelmed and overmatched, loses confidence and starts creating bad habits, etc. Isn't that the worry for any prospect? You could argue a guy like Adley is the exception, but then I'd argue his numbers in AA say otherwise. 

My worry is that he's not the big exception we all thought he was and instead he's just a decent catcher who can hit a little. Which is what Wieters was, except Wieters had way better minor league numbers. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think Bowie. Because I would worry that he comes up, gets overwhelmed and overmatched, loses confidence and starts creating bad habits, etc. Isn't that the worry for any prospect? You could argue a guy like Adley is the exception, but then I'd argue his numbers in AA say otherwise. 

My worry is that he's not the big exception we all thought he was and instead he's just a decent catcher who can hit a little. Which is what Wieters was, except Wieters had way better minor league numbers. 

What about his numbers make you think he'll "lose confidence and start creating bad habits"?  Is the the more walks than strikeouts?

I think the vast majority of people who make it onto top 100 prospects lists are unlikely to be crushed by the weight of competition. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think Bowie. Because I would worry that he comes up, gets overwhelmed and overmatched, loses confidence and starts creating bad habits, etc. Isn't that the worry for any prospect? You could argue a guy like Adley is the exception, but then I'd argue his numbers in AA say otherwise. 

My worry is that he's not the big exception we all thought he was and instead he's just a decent catcher who can hit a little. Which is what Wieters was, except Wieters had way better minor league numbers. 

I think that if that is what he is, another couple of months at Bowie isn't going to change it.

[Aglets]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that if that is what he is, another couple of months at Bowie isn't going to change it.

I've seen you post on this topic on occasion.  I guess I'm curious Mr. Corn.   Is it your position that they should promote Adley immediately to the ML team?   Would you like to go on the record?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

I've seen you post on this topic on occasion.  I guess I'm curious Mr. Corn.   Is it your position that they should promote Adley immediately to the ML team?   Would you like to go on the record?

I believe you have mistaken me for another poster.

[interloper]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that if that is what he is, another couple of months at Bowie isn't going to change it.

That's fair.