Olney on O’s losing

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Apparently I’m the only person in the world who believes that if you don’t spend $23 mm today, you have $23 mm available to spend tomorrow.   Most people seem to believe it just goes into the Angelos family’s pockets never to be seen again.  I don’t think that.  

I think it's a lot more complicated than that, Frobby. You're assuming that revenue, cash flow, taxes, and profit are the same in both scenarios. Take away the Angelos-Scrooge-McDuck conspiracies -- I think it is pretty naive to think that money is being saved in some vault for later.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

21 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

F Olney. After experiencing 1998-2011, I am no where near panic mode after the first three years of Elias.  If we can be winning by 2023, that will have been 6 straight losing seasons, nothing compared to the 14 we had prior to 2012.

I believe 2022 will also be a wash, but it will be extremely important for our minor league system as '22 will be the year we should hopefully collect a good pocket of talent at AAA (Adley, DHall, GrayRod, Westburg, Henderson, Baumann, etc). Going into 2023, we will finally be clear of Chris Davis' contract and I believe that's when we should sign a couple quality free agents, especially a pitcher. 

The winning we could do through the mid-late 2020's, early 2030's could put Olney to shame, but we have to go through this more probably one more season.

They don't need to wait to be clear of Chris Davis' contract. The terms are already agreed upon. They have $0 committed to 2023. They could absolutely sign someone this offseason and structure the deal as needed.

Keep in mind that Chris Davis is only being paid approximately $17m per year, with much of it deferred. That is not an earth-shattering number for a major league club in 2021.

Also - I don't think Olney is saying the this process won't work. He's arguing that it is completely unnecessary. Other teams with smaller resources are having far better and more consistent results without consecutive 100+ loss seasons.

[Pickles]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know what’s so hard for you to get.  You asked the question going back to 2018.  Why would I do that without going back to when it really matters?

I already told you I’m good with everything Elias has done in terms of trades.  I’m good with a lot of what he has done in general.  I have said this a bunch of times and I have also said that Elias is probably the best thing to happen to the organization in at least 25 years.  
 

But I’m not ok with how he handled the last offseason in terms of (mainly) not addressing the pitching staff more and I want to see more this offseason.  My real judgement of him won’t come until ST of next year.

Ok, so GOING FORWARD, which really doesn't require using data points from NOW, let us focus the conversation.

I personally would like us to not lose one hundred games, next year.

Davis still on the book next year.  I don't expect a big increase in payroll next year.

I honestly expect a team next similar to this year's team.  With the addition of 2 top 10 global prospects, injected at various points in the season.

That's pretty exciting to me.

I think despite as bad as the ML team has been- and its hard to get true straight line comps cause of the shortened seasons- getting better.

[Pickles]

I will say, you have written before about Price.  Well, we'll see what he goes for in the off-season, but I think it is more than you have suggested.  But forget that.

Should the O's get Price if it cost them no talent?

Money is not infinite.  Even if the O's only spend 5 mil of the 16 mil they "save" by not employing Price in the amateur draft and international free agent pool, isn't that probably worth it for a rebuilding team?

What exactly is the cutoff in that exchange?

You've said recently, "There's no reason you can do it all."

Well, yes there is.  Resources are not infinite.  Life is a series of choices- prioritizing one path or the other.

[Explosivo]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know what’s so hard for you to get.  You asked the question going back to 2018.  Why would I do that without going back to when it really matters?

I already told you I’m good with everything Elias has done in terms of trades.  I’m good with a lot of what he has done in general.  I have said this a bunch of times and I have also said that Elias is probably the best thing to happen to the organization in at least 25 years.  
 

But I’m not ok with how he handled the last offseason in terms of (mainly) not addressing the pitching staff more and I want to see more this offseason.  My real judgement of him won’t come until ST of next year.

Wah. Who cares if you’re not ok how he handled it. In fact, it’s much better that you’re not in charge. You are worse than Olney. At least he gets paid for his poor opinions.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

They don't need to wait to be clear of Chris Davis' contract. The terms are already agreed upon. They have $0 committed to 2023. They could absolutely sign someone this offseason and structure the deal as needed.

Keep in mind that Chris Davis is only being paid approximately $17m per year, with much of it deferred. That is not an earth-shattering number for a major league club in 2021.

Also - I don't think Olney is saying the this process won't work. He's arguing that it is completely unnecessary. Other teams with smaller resources are having far better and more consistent results without consecutive 100+ loss seasons.

His salary isn’t $17 mm, it’s $23 mm with $6 mm of that deferred.   And I will repeat for the zillionth year time: the O’s are putting a bit less than $6 mm into escrow every year to fund the future payments to Davis.  They aren’t spending only $17 mm on him each year.   That was only true in 2016 and 2017, before the escrow obligations kicked in (18 months after it’s earned).  

You can’t have it both ways.   You can’t say the O’s are paying him only $17 mm now, and then say they have $0 committed to 2023.    You either count the escrowed money as paid now (which for cash flow purposes is accurate), or count it when paid to Davis in the future.   
 

[linedrive]

I have to disagree with Olney. Not every team can be the Yankees, and if the O's tried to win as many games as possible without rebuilding, then they'll be mediocre forever. Maybe that's what Olney wants. But I want another World Championship, so I'm completely on board with the rebuild. I loved it when we were winning from 2012-2017, but, sadly, we didn't win a Championship. Once we have our minor league system stocked full of talent and boost our international talent, we'll be a force to be reckoned with for a long time... and we'll have some Championships to show for it. Get lost Olney!

[Explosivo]

7 minutes ago, linedrive said:

I have to disagree with Olney. Not every team can be the Yankees, and if the O's tried to win as many games as possible without rebuilding, then they'll be mediocre forever. Maybe that's what Olney wants. But I want another World Championship, so I'm completely on board with the rebuild. I loved it when we were winning from 2012-2017, but, sadly, we didn't win a Championship. Once we have our minor league system stocked full of talent and boost our international talent, we'll be a force to be reckoned with for a long time... and we'll have some Championships to show for it. Get lost Olney!

Yes sir! I love the enthusiasm!

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

His salary isn’t $17 mm, it’s $23 mm with $6 mm of that deferred.   And I will repeat for the zillionth year time: the O’s are putting a bit less than $6 mm into escrow every year to fund the future payments to Davis.  They aren’t spending only $17 mm on him each year.   That was only true in 2016 and 2017, before the escrow obligations kicked in (18 months after it’s earned).  

You can’t have it both ways.   You can’t say the O’s are paying him only $17 mm now, and then say they have $0 committed to 2023.    You either count the escrowed money as paid now (which for cash flow purposes is accurate), or count it when paid to Davis in the future.   
 

Where are you getting the information about money being put into escrow every year? I searched online, on Twitter - and the highest results are actually your posts on the Hangout. I know you know your stuff - so legit curious to learn more. 

Either way, we're talking about less than $6m in both 2021 and 2022, $3.5m from 2023-2032, or a combination of the two. That's relatively little for a major league team and quite frankly, should be a non-factor in free agency. We don't factor the $500k they pay to Bobby Bonilla every year, either.

To my original point, the Orioles can certainly pay free agents this offseason. The contract terms for Davis, Cobb, and all the other deferred contracts are already set in stone. The O's can structure free agent contracts accordingly. They don't need to wait for Davis' contract to expire to suddenly be freed of some financial restraints that are holding them back from spending money.

[sevastras]

I was following the thread for the first 5 pages and came back tonight to almost 20. My two cents

-F Onley

-What difference does it make if the Os win 75 games or 60 games?  Neither is that competitive. 
-They did try to sign some 1 year deals to flip guys, so some guys got paid that wouldn’t necessarily have gotten paid

-F Olney

-And yes, I agree with you @Frobby that $30mm saved this year translates to more freedom in spending when it matters. No there isn’t a vault somewhere saving things up, but if you aren’t constantly shelling money out for stupid things, then you have the funds available when it counts. Some of you on here think that the Angelos family is just taking all of the money they are making and living in high cotton. I believe to be more accurate, is they are willing to spend when it seems to make sense within what they view to be within reason and their budget. 
What all of us as Os fans wish is that the owner was like Steinbrenner in the 70s. His attitude was, “I don’t care how much it cost, I want to win.”  These teams are businesses, not our government. They can’t just spend their way out of losing without regard to the consequences of doing so. And if you read this far, it doesn’t make sense for the Os to start spending to actually compete until possibly next year but more likely 2023

[sevastras]

33 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

Where are you getting the information about money being put into escrow every year? I searched online, on Twitter - and the highest results are actually your posts on the Hangout. I know you know your stuff - so legit curious to learn more. 

Either way, we're talking about less than $6m in both 2021 and 2022, $3.5m from 2023-2032, or a combination of the two. That's relatively little for a major league team and quite frankly, should be a non-factor in free agency. We don't factor the $500k they pay to Bobby Bonilla every year, either.

To my original point, the Orioles can certainly pay free agents this offseason. The contract terms for Davis, Cobb, and all the other deferred contracts are already set in stone. The O's can structure free agent contracts accordingly. They don't need to wait for Davis' contract to expire to suddenly be freed of some financial restraints that are holding them back from spending money.

The point is spending it wisely. You mention Chris Davis, Bobby Bonilla, those were contracts that prove that they are willing to spend money when they think they are really competing. Turns out to be bad spends but that happens. What good would it do to sign Kershaw to a 10 year $400mm contract(not going to happen and exaggeration) next year?  “See, we signed a big deal with a big name and are trying to compete. “. 
When you build a house you start with a solid foundation. Pretty sure we have all heard that before. Well, the Os had a half donkey foundation and 2012-2017 they stripped what they could of the foundation to try to compete. ME has had the task of completely starting over. I don’t have a doubt that when it comes time to sign someone or extend someone it will be done because things seem to be getting done properly now. We all wanted a Machado extension. What good would that be right now at what $40mm a year? He isn’t even close to being the best player on his current team. 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, Pickles said:

I will say, you have written before about Price.  Well, we'll see what he goes for in the off-season, but I think it is more than you have suggested.  But forget that.

Should the O's get Price if it cost them no talent?

Money is not infinite.  Even if the O's only spend 5 mil of the 16 mil they "save" by not employing Price in the amateur draft and international free agent pool, isn't that probably worth it for a rebuilding team?

What exactly is the cutoff in that exchange?

You've said recently, "There's no reason you can do it all."

Well, yes there is.  Resources are not infinite.  Life is a series of choices- prioritizing one path or the other.

The Orioles have recently spent a lot of money on the draft and payroll.  They have shown that we can spend 160-170M on things.

It doesn’t cost much money to do many of the things we talk about..PD, scouting, spending internationally , etc….if they have an operating budget that encompasses everything, it shouldn’t be a problem to spend 120-150M on payroll.

Now, with that being said, when this team is spending those types of dollars on payroll, it should be like what we saw in the mid 2010s, where much of that money was spent because of arbitration raises.

For the 2022 season, spending 70-90M on payroll should be doable.  That shouldn’t be asking too much.

[waroriole]

7 hours ago, Pickles said:

Ok, so GOING FORWARD, which really doesn't require using data points from NOW, let us focus the conversation.

I personally would like us to not lose one hundred games, next year.

Davis still on the book next year.  I don't expect a big increase in payroll next year.

I honestly expect a team next similar to this year's team.  With the addition of 2 top 10 global prospects, injected at various points in the season.

That's pretty exciting to me.

I think despite as bad as the ML team has been- and its hard to get true straight line comps cause of the shortened seasons- getting better.

I expect them to make upgrades where we have glaring weaknesses on the ML team, without anyone ready to fill in from the minors. That may include signing people to 2-3 year contracts. 
 

I need to see 2B, 3B, and 2 SP staffed by real ML players. I don’t want to see guys who had no other option but to sign a minor league, or minimum salary deal. Failing to do that will really raise questions as to whether Elias is capable of building a ML team. He can build a farm system, but now he has to do the second part. Or he should get a President of Baseball Ops boss. 

[Sports Guy]

By the end of April…

1st- RM

2nd- Urias 

SS- ???

3rd- ???

LF- Hays

CF- Mullins

RF- Santander

DH- Mancini

C- Adley

For the offense, there are a few questions:

1). Do you keep Mancini?  I think it’s likely they do but they could trade him

2) Do you tender Santander?  I happen to think this is likely.  They know he’s talented and this is just a lost year.  Maybe he ends the year well and builds up his value and makes him a trade piece in the offseason though.

3) Does Jones look better as a second baseman than we have heard or are the Os at least willing to try him there to see?  If so, Urias could be at SS and he could be at third.  Vavra should hopefully show he is ready after a few months in AAA, so he should factor in as well (I like Vavra more than Jones)

4) What do you do with third?  Outside of Kris Bryant, the 3rd base options aren’t great.  Maybe Seattle declines the option on Seager (doubtful) or you can add him in a trade that doesn’t cost you that much (possible).  Otherwise, it’s another stop gap garbage option or some other trade while we wait to see what happens with Westburg and Gunnar.

5) Do they cut Davis?

As for the pitching staff…

Means and Grayson are the only ones I’m willing to write into the rotation by the end of April.  Grayson could still be kept in the minors but I don’t think that will be necessary unless he is hurt or performs far worse to end this year and in ST than we would think.

After that, who knows.  Zimmerman has a chance to really stamp his name in the rotation if he can end the year well but you still need 2 more stops.  Hall won’t likely see the majors in 2022 unless it’s a late season call Up.  Lowther, Kremer, Akin and A Wells are likely not going to make it.  One of them can likely keep the seat warm for GRod before he comes up about a month into the season. Can Bradish and  K Smith become real candidates?  
 

One other name I feel good about writing in is Baumann.  We will see how he ends the year and if he stays healthy but for right now, I think it’s fair to think he is in the rotation in April.  
 

So, to me, we have at least one open spot in the rotation where you need to add a legit guy.  I have mentioned Price.  Depending on price tag, I’m for Stroman. There are probably others. I also think you bring in another Matt Harvey type guy..IE some vet on a MiL deal as some kind of insurance for the young arms.  

For the pen, barring trades and health, I think Scott, Fry, Harvey, Bautista and Tate are likely candidates to be in the pen to start.  Beyond that, you have a slew of guys who could be in.  Do Kremer and Akin transition to the pen?  What about Jorge Lopez?  Is in the pen or kept in the rotation?  How he ends the year is what matters there.  For me, I think you have to go out and add at least one legit ML reliever to this pen.

All in all, this is a team that costs no money.  Spending on 1-2 starters, a back end of the pen reliever and at least one offensive starter on the left side of the IF should be doable and I’m not saying scrap heap guys.  I’m talking legit signings/trades.  Guys that are likely big contributors.  
 

I am not for signing any of the SS to the monster deals they are likely to get.  I wouldn’t hate it if they did but it’s not something I want to see them Do.  I would be interested in Bryant if the length of his deal is 6 years or less but I don’t know how likely that is.

[Aristotelian]

I could also see Elias signing a veteran reliever, someone who has been a good 7th-8th inning guy that could close for us. Way cheaper than a star free agent SS and would provide a big bang for buck in terms of wins. Right now the bullpen is a mess, even more so when there is the inevitable injury or two. Brad Boxberger or Adam Ottavino would be pretty cheap and would help ensure we don't have Connor Greene coming in to protect a 3 run lead.