19 Game Streak Post-Mortem

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Huh?

What does the delusions of the prior regime have to do with anything?

It is actually difficult to be this poor on the field.  This is ordinarily a rare occurrence, to see teams do this poorly.  The 2018 team stumbled onto it.  This year is 100% intentional, and that's an impressive achievement.

They thought they could compete from 2016-2018 and they made a lot of moves in order to do so.  Those moves almost all came with long-term opportunity costs.

It's exactly why we bottomed out so badly, and why this rebuild has been so mammoth.

Winning 47 games when spending 160 million dollars and legitimately thinking you had a shot at the playoffs is so on another level than winning 53 games in a year when you hoped not to lose 100 if things went right.  I mean, it's not even comparable.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Were they delusional or were they under marching orders to continue to try and compete even though most could see the window was closed?

We also have to remember the dysfunction of the three headed regime with DD, Anderson and Buck all via for some kind of influence with an aged owner who probably should not have been making major decisions at this time in his life.

This. By 2018 it was total dysfunction with multiple voices with differing visions guiding the team and a half-assed attempt to compete for the wildcard when the 2012-16 run was clearly over. 

If this rebuild fails the primary blame should go to ownership before any other parties. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Pickles said:

They thought they could compete from 2016-2018 and they made a lot of moves in order to do so.  Those moves almost all came with long-term opportunity costs.

It's exactly why we bottomed out so badly, and why this rebuild has been so mammoth.

Winning 47 games when spending 160 million dollars and legitimately thinking you had a shot at the playoffs is so on another level than winning 53 games in a year when you hoped not to lose 100 if things went right.  I mean, it's not even comparable.

All the stuff that happened before is irrelevant to what I am trying to say.

It is really hard to go from being as bad as the Orioles were in 2018 and,three years later, to not be noticeably better on the field of play.

It might actually be unprecedented.  The way ML baseball is, you can't generally sustain this level of ineptitude.  Forces pull the good teams down and lift the bad teams up.  Elias has managed to carefully design a team that can fight that natural force toward equilibrium. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

This. By 2018 it was total dysfunction with multiple voices with differing visions guiding the team and a half-assed attempt to compete for the wildcard when the 2012-16 run was clearly over. 

If this rebuild fails the primary blame should go to ownership before any other parties. 

Right, because ownership hired the VP/GM that has "total control".

 

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

All the stuff that happened before is irrelevant to what I am trying to say.

It is really hard to go from being as bad as the Orioles were in 2018 and,three years later, to not be noticeably better on the field of play.

It might actually be unprecedented.  The way ML baseball is, you can't generally sustain this level of ineptitude.  Forces pull the good teams down and lift the bad teams up.  Elias has managed to carefully design a team that can fight that natural force toward equilibrium. 

 

See, I just don't think it is that hard.

To me this was entirely expected.

Again, when you START the rebuild with a 47 win team that has been stripped bare, and a MiL system with few of note above A ball, I don't expect it to be quick.  

I compared this to 30-3 before.  That was right as AM came in and the decision to rebuild was made.  Well, we got worse.  We lost more under AM than we did under his predecessors.  That's generally what a rebuild looks like.

And because we started in such a terrible position this time, the depth and breadth of this does not shock me.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

See, I just don't think it is that hard.

To me this was entirely expected.

Again, when you START the rebuild with a 47 win team that has been stripped bare, and a MiL system with few of note above A ball, I don't expect it to be quick.  

I compared this to 30-3 before.  That was right as AM came in and the decision to rebuild was made.  Well, we got worse.  We lost more under AM than we did under his predecessors.  That's generally what a rebuild looks like.

And because we started in such a terrible position this time, the depth and breadth of this does not shock me.

I think that if you check the books you will see that not many teams have had seasons this poor. 

You've heard the old saying every team wins 54 and loses 54 it's what they do in the last 54 that makes the difference?

That's a saying for a reason.

The O's were eliminated from AL East contention yesterday.  It's still August. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right, because ownership hired the VP/GM that has "total control".

 

Yeah because I'm sure Elias really wanted to carry Chris Davis on the roster until this past month. Elias has control, but he's still working within certain parameters set by ownership. 

[LTO's]

Another thread of DD apologia. Definitely not his fault for signing Ubaldo despite clear warning signs that he was over the hill. Or forfeiting draft picks for Yovani Gallardo. Or signing Andrew Cashner. If only there were two guys in the upper minors who could've been cheap, controllable vast improvements over those guys. I guess Angelos forced him to trade those guys away for Gerado Parra and a rental reliever. Sure there was meddling from ownership but not all of it was bad. It's been widely reported Angelos vetoed a 2017 Britton deal to the Astros. DD wanted Francis Martes/Colin Moran. Would've netted the O's a whopping -0.3 WAR between the two of them. Dillon Tate is currently at 1.1 career WAR and will probably be the best player from the awful 2018 sell off. These are the types of moves that result in a 47 win season and a 30th ranked farm system. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that if you check the books you will see that not many teams have had seasons this poor. 

We'll see where we end up.  When you're losing 19 straight, it's hard to believe you'll ever win again.  But if this team finishes out decently, there will be nothing "historic" about how bad they are.

And, again frankly, this was all entirely predictable- from many years ago.

I wish a couple of the young starters had pitched better, and we were watching the "race" to win our 63rd game instead of hoping we finish strong and can get to 56 wins.

But over all, and as reflection of the "success" of the rebuild, it matters very little.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Yeah because I'm sure Elias really wanted to carry Chris Davis on the roster until this past month. Elias has control, but he's still working within certain parameters set by ownership. 

And Chris Davis on the roster made 0 difference in this season.  All he did was use up a 40 man roster spot, of which the O's had plenty.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And Chris Davis on the roster made 0 difference in this season.  All he did was use up a 40 man roster spot, of which the O's had plenty.

Probably could have found a better use for 20 million dollars.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

We'll see where we end up.  When you're losing 19 straight, it's hard to believe you'll ever win again.  But if this team finishes out decently, there will be nothing "historic" about how bad they are.

And, again frankly, this was all entirely predictable- from many years ago.

I wish a couple of the young starters had pitched better, and we were watching the "race" to win our 63rd game instead of hoping we finish strong and can get to 56 wins.

But over all, and as reflection of the "success" of the rebuild, it matters very little.

So if, when Elias took over, someone asked you what the Orioles record would be on 8/27/2021 you would have said 40-86?  You would have expected this degree of on the field ineptitude for this period of time? 

You are more prescient than I.  I would have expected them to be to the part of the rebuild in which they weren't losing 110 games.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Pickles said:

Probably could have found a better use for 20 million dollars.

Would they have?

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

So if, when Elias took over, someone asked you what the Orioles record would be on 8/27/2021 you would have said 40-86?  You would have expected this degree of on the field ineptitude for this period of time? 

You are more prescient than I.  I would have expected them to be to the part of the rebuild in which they weren't losing 110 games.

I've been on this board for years saying this was not going to be linear, and this was going to take a lot longer than the general consensus on this board seemed to be.

If you had told me in April of 2019 that this team would lose 100 games for the next three years, I would have said, "Sounds about right."

You're not wrong that it would be pretty easy to be a little better.

But they're not trying to do that.  So we should not be surprised that they aren't.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would they have?

Undoubtedly.

Probably not all of it.  And probably none of it for the ML club.