2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Definitely not Adley's fault...it was not based on Adley's performance. 

Sure, but Witt did make it pretty quickly, which was the primary point.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I think the fact that Termarr came for a workout at OPACY means something.  I doubt they ask him to do that unless he's in serious consideration.   I also believe that he gets them the most savings underslot at #1, among the names mentioned.  Another LH bat (all of Elias top picks bat LH).  

Oh boy. You usually have good insights on these things too. What’s your personal rank? I like Jones obviously but like Lee for the safe underslot (read very conflicting things about him sticking at SS but sounds like a 3b), Holiday, Green & Parada. Anyone outside if those are disappointing in my eyes. 

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Oh boy. You usually have good insights on these things too. What’s your personal rank? I like Jones obviously but like Lee for the safe underslot (read very conflicting things about him sticking at SS but sounds like a 3b), Holiday, Green & Parada. Anyone outside if those are disappointing in my eyes. 

I like to think I'm smart enough to say I don't know. I think Jones sounds the best.  Johson has a beautiful swing but I'm worried that the best HS hitter in the last 20 years is hyperbole.  I saw him get blown away by Brock Porter but that was only one game.  Brooks Lee doesn't wow me. Elijah Green feels like he has the most bust potential. Holliday and Cam Collier basically came out of nowhere the last two months.  Who has Holliday faced?

I know I'm not an expert but none of the experts say that it would be crazy to pass on Jones even though they think he's #1.   

I would prefer they take Jones but I certainly don't think I'm smart enough to ridicule the pick if it's not Jones.

I mean, I'm not the draft expert that Christian Colon, I mean Sportsguy is.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Just now, RZNJ said:

I like to think I'm smart enough to say I don't know. I think Jones sounds the best.  Johson has a beautiful swing but I'm worried that the best HS hitter in the last 20 years is hyperbole.  I saw him get blown away by Brock Porter but that was only one game.  Brooks Lee doesn't wow me. Elijah Green feels like he has the most bust potential. Holliday and Cam Collier basically came out of nowhere the last two months.  Who has Holliday faced?

I know I'm not an expert but none of the experts say that it would be crazy to pass on Jones even though they think he's #1.   

I would prefer they take Jones but I certainly don't think I'm smart enough to ridicule the pick if it's not Jones.

I mean, I'm not the draft expert that Christian Colon, I mean Sportsguy is.

Great post, agree on Green but keep in mind he has a professional sports family too so I think that reduces the risk, same with Jones & Holiday. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Great post, agree on Green but keep in mind he has a professional sports family too so I think that reduces the risk, same with Jones & Holiday. 

I can easily name a number of sons of pro players that didn't excel in the majors.

You don't draft off their last name.

Whatever advantage they got from their fathers should already be baked into the evaluations.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I can easily name a number of sons of pro players that didn't excel in the majors.

You don't draft off their last name.

Whatever advantage they got from their fathers should already be baked into the evaluations.

These are all elite names (top 5) anyway so….

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

These are all elite names (top 5) anyway so….

So?

No reason to give bonus points.  You draft the player.

[baltimoreO's22]

5 hours ago, seak05 said:

BTW I find it mildly ironic that the best 1:1 HS pick of the last decade was an under-slot, cost saving signing. Especially at the HS level the draft is a crapshoot, I just find the idea that there is only one clear right answer to be laughable. 

Moniak and Lewis were also underslot guys that weren’t ranked #1 in their class, same as Correa. 

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

Moniak and Lewis were also underslot guys that weren’t ranked #1 in their class, same as Correa. 

Moniak was a bad pick from the moment they did it.

Aiken was hurt and they didn’t realize it and Lewis has been ranked very high and shown a lot of upside but the injuries have been an issue.  Don’t think they are really good examples.

Correa was underslot but the other guy that they passed on was Buxton, a HSer.

Thats the parallel.  If you take Holliday and pass on Jones, is that like taking Correa and passing on Buxton?

[Sports Guy]

Collier is interesting.

He is just 17 which, coincidentally, was the same age as Correa when he was drafted.  Big difference is Correa was a SS and was able to stay there, after some questions that he would grow out of the position.

Collier is a third baseman now and has a rocket arm.  Sounds like he can stay at third but his downside is moving to CO or first base, whereas Correa was going from SS to third.   That’s obviously better.

He reclassified to this class and went to a top JuCo program, where he has held his own facing players older than him.  He was thought to be a top 5 prospect, as of right now, in 2023.

Could the Os be intrigued by the age and how he has already faces college aged pitching?  
 

Intriguing guy here and perhaps is and should be in the mix for their pick if they don’t go Jones.  I think Collier and Holliday have potentially moved ahead of Green but it’s close with all 3 of them.  

[baltimoreO's22]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Moniak was a bad pick from the moment they did it.

Aiken was hurt and they didn’t realize it and Lewis has been ranked very high and shown a lot of upside but the injuries have been an issue.  Don’t think they are really good examples.

Correa was underslot but the other guy that they passed on was Buxton, a HSer.

Thats the parallel.  If you take Holliday and pass on Jones, is that like taking Correa and passing on Buxton?

Moniak saved around 3M underslot, which allowed Philly to give Gowdy a 3.5M bonus, neither of those guys have made an impact for the Phillies, and that is a risk you run by going underslot. 

I know its a strategy, going underslot, but I prefer to take the most talented player available, since most guys never even make the majors. 

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

Moniak saved around 3M underslot, which allowed Philly to give Gowdy a 3.5M bonus, neither of those guys have made an impact for the Phillies, and that is a risk you run by going underslot. 

I know its a strategy, going underslot, but I prefer to take the most talented player available, since most guys never even make the majors. 

 

Right.  Moniak is an example of why you don’t go underslot.

To be fair, that was a weak draft, especially at the top.

But Moniak wasn’t a very well received pick when it happened iirc.

[baltimoreO's22]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Right.  Moniak is an example of why you don’t go underslot.

To be fair, that was a weak draft, especially at the top.

But Moniak wasn’t a very well received pick when it happened iirc.

I believe Moniak, like Holliday, sort of came on to the scene later in the process, and the draft was in early June then. I imagine if we took Holliday at 1.1 back in early June, it may have been received poorly by the fanbase/experts then too. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

I believe Moniak, like Holliday, sort of came on to the scene later in the process, and the draft was in early June then. I imagine if we took Holliday at 1.1 back in early June, it may have been received poorly by the fanbase/experts then too. 

Was reading this morning that Correa came out later in the process too.

I tend to not like helium guys right before the draft, at least with high picks.  
 

But sometimes guys just fall through the cracks or they change something and it turns them around or, they just get bigger and stronger.

Im on record as saying Jones should be the pick but if not, Collier, Green and Holliday seem to be defensible guys at this point.

I can’t get behind Johnson or any college player as a defensible pick at 1, no matter the hit tool of Johnson or floors of those college guys.  
 

In no way am I saying they would be a bust or some bad player, I just don’t like the upside nearly as much and I feel that’s the direction they need to be going in.

[seak05]

12 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

Moniak saved around 3M underslot, which allowed Philly to give Gowdy a 3.5M bonus, neither of those guys have made an impact for the Phillies, and that is a risk you run by going underslot. 

I know its a strategy, going underslot, but I prefer to take the most talented player available, since most guys never even make the majors. 

 

I don’t think the debate is really don’t “the most talented guy” but if there is really a one most talented player. I would be upset if the orioles took Berry, as he’s outside the top tier of talent. But within that top tier I can make good arguments for all of them, and I don’t really see a large separation.

Some on here argue that if one guy is a 93 & the other is a 92.5 it’s a travesty if you take the 92.5 bc why even get the top pick then. I think at that point you’re guessing either way on which player is going to be better