2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[RZNJ]

Where did I just read that Jones camp has been in talks with Arizona  the last few days?  If true, it certainly leads to the thought that he's not going 1:1.  Remember, 4 teams passed on Lawlar because the D-Backs were the only one willing to meet his price or so it seems.

If your Jones, Arizona might be where you want to steer yourself towards if possible. 

[Just Regular]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2002&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

On the possibility of Druw holding to $9mm+ hopes and getting to Mets or anyone else who would meet it, it reminded me of the Moneyball account of 2002, probably the most famous round in MLB draft history thanks to the book.

A tidbit I remember as Billy Beane was agonizing whether Nick Swisher would make it to him was that pre-draft it was worked out elite Jeremy Guthrie's bonus demand would be met by Cleveland.     Thanks to B-Ref, can see above from pick 22 Guthrie pulled the 4th highest bonus.     Guthrie put 18 WAR into "the history of the 22nd overall pick", but as Elias has illuminated only the $$$ matters.     I'm confident OMAR's historical algorithms treat Guthrie like 1-4 not 1-22.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2002&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

On the possibility of Druw holding to $9mm+ hopes and getting to Mets or anyone else who would meet it, it reminded me of the Moneyball account of 2002, probably the most famous round in MLB draft history thanks to the book.

A tidbit I remember as Billy Beane was agonizing whether Nick Swisher would make it to him was that pre-draft it was worked out elite Jeremy Guthrie's bonus demand would be met by Cleveland.     Thanks to B-Ref, can see above from pick 22 Guthrie pulled the 4th highest bonus.     Guthrie put 18 WAR into "the history of the 22nd overall pick", but as Elias has illuminated only the $$$ matters.     I'm confident OMAR's historical algorithms treat Guthrie like 1-4 not 1-22.

Guthrie was pre-slotting so I'd question how relevant an example he is.

 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Where did I just read that Jones camp has been in talks with Arizona  the last few days?  If true, it certainly leads to the thought that he's not going 1:1.  Remember, 4 teams passed on Lawlar because the D-Backs were the only one willing to meet his price or so it seems.

If your Jones, Arizona might be where you want to steer yourself towards if possible. 

If you are Jones, you want to know if Arizona will go overslot to get you, and you negotiate with Baltimore accordingly.   So I’m not at all surprised they are talking.  

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

To the extent we've looked at "falls to 7" as a chink in Termarr's armor, I noticed reading through the rest of Kiley's top tier two days out, he is guessing Brooks Lee falls to 8.

He’s not worthy of the first pick either.

[RZNJ]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s not worthy of the first pick either.

I love your proclamations!  It's a love/hate thing.

[RZNJ]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If you are Jones, you want to know if Arizona will go overslot to get you, and you negotiate with Baltimore accordingly.   So I’m not at all surprised they are talking.  

Sure. I think Arizona will.  Look what they did with Lawlar last year. 

[MurphDogg]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Hey SG, do an old man a favor.  Next time you cut and paste a quote, click the option that says “use plain text” so that I don’t go blind trying to read it!

The substance of the quote is interesting.   Overall, I don’t like the strategy of saving money by choosing a second option and then hoping that the one guy you’re hoping to spend the savings on will be there when your next pick rolls around.   I only like the strategy when (1) the players you are choosing from are very close in your opinion, and (2) you are very confident that there will be multiple options for deploying the savings.  But if Kiley would rank Jones 24 and Johnson 30, that’s pretty close.  Who knows what Elias & co. think about that.   

Fangraphs has Jones 10th, Holliday 20th, Lee 25th and Johnson 27th. 

If Elias feels the same way, I totally understand seeing which of the other 3 will sign for $2M less and grabbing overslots.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sure. I think Arizona will.  Look what they did with Lawlar last year. 

And, they have $3.9 mm more to spend this year than last year.  

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Where did I just read that Jones camp has been in talks with Arizona  the last few days?  If true, it certainly leads to the thought that he's not going 1:1.  Remember, 4 teams passed on Lawlar because the D-Backs were the only one willing to meet his price or so it seems.

If your Jones, Arizona might be where you want to steer yourself towards if possible. 

There is no way that Jones knows whether the Orioles are taking him or not. The Orioles haven't told anyone, and Jones is the last person they would tell because it would give up leverage if it leaked.

Of course it makes sense for him to negotiate with Arizona to find his floor if the Orioles do pass on him. I'm sure the Orioles have been negotiating with him as well.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

There is no way that Jones knows whether the Orioles are taking him or not. The Orioles haven't told anyone, and Jones is the last person they would tell because it would give up leverage if it leaked.

Of course it makes sense for him to negotiate with Arizona to find his floor if the Orioles do pass on him. I'm sure the Orioles have been negotiating with him as well.

Exactly.  Jones should be in talks with a number of teams.

His camp shouldn't be waiting at the phone hoping the Orioles call.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

There is no way that Jones knows whether the Orioles are taking him or not. The Orioles haven't told anyone, and Jones is the last person they would tell because it would give up leverage if it leaked.

Of course it makes sense for him to negotiate with Arizona to find his floor if the Orioles do pass on him. I'm sure the Orioles have been negotiating with him as well.

The Orioles want to know what they can sign Jones for.  Boras is working the D-Backs against the Orioles.   If you guys (Orioles) don't pay him 10M (just saying) we won't sign.  We'll go to a Juco and go back in next year.   You should pass because the D-Backs are offering more than you guys.   Elias, assuming Jones is his #1 guy, can pick him and call his bluff and not go any higher than slot.   He can say wtf  and take Holliday or someone else he sees as the NEXT best guy, knowing what their number is before the selection.  

I guess it depends on what Elias and team really think about Jones.   I can't see them taking him without a verbal agreement on numbers unless he things Jones is a generational talent and it doesn't seem that way.   

My gut feeling is that Boras will get the D-Backs to pay what the Orioles won't and that Elias will not want to get into a game of chicken with Boras.

Bottom line.  Jones is not the 1:1 pick.   Of course, I change my mind about every 2 hours.  Stay tuned.

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Orioles want to know what they can sign Jones for.  Boras is working the D-Backs against the Orioles.   If you guys (Orioles) don't pay him 10M (just saying) we won't sign.  We'll go to a Juco and go back in next year.   You should pass because the D-Backs are offering more than you guys.   Elias, assuming Jones is his #1 guy, can pick him and call his bluff and not go any higher than slot.   He can say wtf  and take Holliday or someone else he sees as the NEXT best guy, knowing what their number is before the selection.  

I guess it depends on what Elias and team really think about Jones.   I can't see them taking him without a verbal agreement on numbers unless he things Jones is a generational talent and it doesn't seem that way.   

My gut feeling is that Boras will get the D-Backs to pay what the Orioles won't and that Elias will not want to get into a game of chicken with Boras.

Bottom line.  Jones is not the 1:1 pick.   Of course, I change my mind about every 2 hours.  Stay tuned.

 

If I were the Os and Jones is the THE guy you want, I would call the bluff.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2002&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

On the possibility of Druw holding to $9mm+ hopes and getting to Mets or anyone else who would meet it, it reminded me of the Moneyball account of 2002, probably the most famous round in MLB draft history thanks to the book.

A tidbit I remember as Billy Beane was agonizing whether Nick Swisher would make it to him was that pre-draft it was worked out elite Jeremy Guthrie's bonus demand would be met by Cleveland.     Thanks to B-Ref, can see above from pick 22 Guthrie pulled the 4th highest bonus.     Guthrie put 18 WAR into "the history of the 22nd overall pick", but as Elias has illuminated only the $$$ matters.     I'm confident OMAR's historical algorithms treat Guthrie like 1-4 not 1-22.

I looked up the A's 2002 draft.  It was not very good.  Just a bunch of utility players.  I think there was one guy, Brown? who had a decent career.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If I were the Os and Jones is the THE guy you want, I would call the bluff.

For you it's not a bluff.  I just saw you are willing to go 10M for him.  Whatever it takes.  Previously you said you would offer him something like 8.5M and say take it or leave it.   Which is it?