Jump to content

Final Call: Who do the O's protect from the Rule 5 draft?

wildcard

By wildcard
in Orioles Talk

 Share

Recommended Posts

HowAboutThat Hangout Grand Counsel

HowAboutThat

Posted
Posted

I remember when we drafted Ryan Flaherty, I think he was considered the best available rule five guy: A very high floor but a very low ceiling. His career WAR is minuscule(1.1)but he was a very valuable player for us for a few years and I’m glad we had him.

Here’s the question for the crowd:

Are other teams going to be looking at us and seeing, in the guys we leave unprotected, very low floors but high ceilings? Or high floors but low ceilings?

Pop was, I think, the latter, and the Marlins kept him.

What will they want? Is Grenier another Flaherty? Good glove Bad bat? Are we not protecting any reasonably potential starters like Sedlock(who retains that draft pick shine.)?

What do we want? I’m thinking if we want NOW Producers it might indicate Mike has flipped the switch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 140
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Frobby
Frobby

Good question.   It’s worth noting though that of the OH top 20 so far, only two are already on the 40 man roster (Lowther and Baumann) and only three others (Hall, Bradish, Vavra) need to be added.  

Can_of_corn
Can_of_corn

With the top rated farm system shouldn't we be at the point in which we are using all 40 slots for our own guys?  If someone can't make another team's 40 why would we want to add them to our 26?

UMDTerrapins
UMDTerrapins

I feel like we're not focusing on the best part of today. It's not that we finally find out who we're going to protect from the Run V. It's that we soon get to geek out about which player we can steal

Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Philip said:

I remember when we drafted Ryan Flaherty, I think he was considered the best available rule five guy: A very high floor but a very low ceiling. His career WAR is minuscule(1.1)but he was a very valuable player for us for a few years and I’m glad we had him.

Here’s the question for the crowd:

Are other teams going to be looking at us and seeing, in the guys we leave unprotected, very low floors but high ceilings? Or high floors but low ceilings?

Pop was, I think, the latter, and the Marlins kept him.

What will they want? Is Grenier another Flaherty? Good glove Bad bat? Are we not protecting any reasonably potential starters like Sedlock(who retains that draft pick shine.)?

What do we want? I’m thinking if we want NOW Producers it might indicate Mike has flipped the switch.

We took Flaherty with the 4th pick in the 2011 Rule 5 draft.  I don’t recall much buzz about him ahead of time.   The best pick in that draft turned out to be Marwin Gonzalez, chosen 10th by the Red Sox and traded immediately to Houston (so I suspect it was really Houston that selected him).   Flaherty turned out a little differently than advertised: a better defender and not as good a hitter as expected.   He certainly had his moments for us.   

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted

Melewski:

They’re in: pitchers DL Hall and Kyle Bradish
Almost certainly in: pitcher Kevin Smith and infielder Terrin Vavra
I would do it, but will the club?: Robert Neustromand Bautista

If there turn out to be only four or six protected from this group, that leaves a lot of players who no doubt will get strong consideration even if not added. That partial list would include Adam Hall, Patrick Dorrian, Brett Cumberland, Cadyn Grenier, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Ofelky Peralta and Brennan Hanifee, to name just a few.

There are pitchers they like that seem real longshots, like Lebron, Nick Vespi, Cameron Bishop, Logan Gillaspie, Diogenes Almengo and Tim Naughton.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/11/will-a-100-mph-fastball-get-this-pitcher-on-the-40-man.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Melewski:

They’re in: pitchers DL Hall and Kyle Bradish
Almost certainly in: pitcher Kevin Smith and infielder Terrin Vavra
I would do it, but will the club?: Robert Neustromand Bautista

If there turn out to be only four or six protected from this group, that leaves a lot of players who no doubt will get strong consideration even if not added. That partial list would include Adam Hall, Patrick Dorrian, Brett Cumberland, Cadyn Grenier, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Ofelky Peralta and Brennan Hanifee, to name just a few.

There are pitchers they like that seem real longshots, like Lebron, Nick Vespi, Cameron Bishop, Logan Gillaspie, Diogenes Almengo and Tim Naughton.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/11/will-a-100-mph-fastball-get-this-pitcher-on-the-40-man.html

Interesting that Lebron was #3 in the organization in K rate. I could really see him getting snatched up if he isn't protected. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

Posted
Posted
On 11/15/2021 at 4:10 PM, Frobby said:

We took Flaherty with the 4th pick in the 2011 Rule 5 draft.  I don’t recall much buzz about him ahead of time.   The best pick in that draft turned out to be Marwin Gonzalez, chosen 10th by the Red Sox and traded immediately to Houston (so I suspect it was really Houston that selected him).   Flaherty turned out a little differently than advertised: a better defender and not as good a hitter as expected.   He certainly had his moments for us.   

Stepping in for Manny during the playoffs and playing as well as he did cemented him as one of those tongue-in-cheek Orioles legends. That and the gif. Fun player who I hope finds his way back to the organization in some capacity. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted

It’s still an “advantage” for Elias that the cream of the farm system hasn’t hit the 40 man yet. 
 

Hall is a no brainer. Bradish, Smith, and Vavra we’re all acquired by Elias. So was Dorrian, so maybe that’s our surprise protect. Bautista and Neustrom should be protected. I would not be surprised if we saw a curveball and Elias goes Dorrian over Neustrom. Meaning he chose to protect “his” guy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s still an “advantage” for Elias that the cream of the farm system hasn’t hit the 40 man yet. 
 

Hall is a no brainer. Bradish, Smith, and Vavra we’re all acquired by Elias. So was Dorrian, so maybe that’s our surprise protect. Bautista and Neustrom should be protected. I would not be surprised if we saw a curveball and Elias goes Dorrian over Neustrom. Meaning he chose to protect “his” guy. 

Would suck to lose Neustrom but seems like his ceiling is McKenna. It does seem like Dorrian has a higher chance of filling a need at some point. 

I also wonder whether we might see more guys dropped. Any reason we are keeping Martin, Bannon, and Diaz at this point? Nevin? If anyone claims those guys do we care? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hazmat Major Leaguer

Hazmat

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s still an “advantage” for Elias that the cream of the farm system hasn’t hit the 40 man yet. 
 

Hall is a no brainer. Bradish, Smith, and Vavra we’re all acquired by Elias. So was Dorrian, so maybe that’s our surprise protect. Bautista and Neustrom should be protected. I would not be surprised if we saw a curveball and Elias goes Dorrian over Neustrom. Meaning he chose to protect “his” guy. 

I will be pretty upset if we lose Neustrom, especially if it's over someone like Dorrian.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would suck to lose Neustrom but seems like his ceiling is McKenna. It does seem like Dorrian has a higher chance of filling a need at some point. 

I also wonder whether we might see more guys dropped. Any reason we are keeping Martin, Bannon, and Diaz at this point? Nevin? If anyone claims those guys do we care? 

Martin and Nevin are Elias’ guys. Bannon is an option at a clear hole. Diaz gets one more season to harness his tools. He might start in AA. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted (edited)

Like it or not, I think Martin and Bannon will be considered for the MLB roster in what will be a transition year. Dorrian might get protected. I think he does. Neustrom should get protected, but again not one of Elias’ guys. 
 

We’re starting to reach the point where except for AAA/MLB that 90% of the players in the org are Elias’ guys. 

Edited by sportsfan8703
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I really don't get the Dorrian love. Neustrom is a much better player

I’m not spewing Dorrian love. Just pointing out that he was a guy that Elias acquired in a trade. Just something to think about. Also, he plays 3B, which is right up there with SS as biggest positional need on the big club. People are dreaming about FA’s but it’s very likely that just with the pitching we trot out what we already have in our system to see what we have. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hazmat Major Leaguer

Hazmat

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Like it or not, I think Martin and Bannon will be considered for the MLB roster in what will be a transition year. Dorrian might get protected. I think he does. Neustrom should get protected, but again not one of Elias’ guys. 
 

We’re starting to reach the point where except for AAA/MLB that 90% of the players in the org are Elias’ guys. 

I'd like to see Bannon achieve a BA over .200 in AAA before he gets any consideration for the MLB roster.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tony-OH Hangout Grand Counsel

Tony-OH

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Interesting that Lebron was #3 in the organization in K rate. I could really see him getting snatched up if he isn't protected. 

You sure do love yourself some 28-year old, 5-11 right-handed reliever, with a 5/3 BB/9 between AA/AAA don't you? ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Grt 2BA FL Gator
      Ryan Mountcastle 2024

      By Grt 2BA FL Gator · Posted

      I think Mountcastle is the foremost person hurt by Walltimore. I honestly think we need to reconsider what type of right handed batters we throw out there. More Luis Arraez or someone with high OBP. I could see Mountcastle having a revival somewhere else. But not sure it’s really working here anymore, even though he was solid last year. 
    • baltfan
      Where are the pollyannas?

      By baltfan · Posted

      Who is the real MOO bat though?  I can't think of one other than Soto available.  I am all in on Soto, but I don't think the Orioles will even sniff him.  Absent Soto, who do you look to acquire? I agree that it is time to move on from Tony and Mounty, but I do think you are a little harsh on Tony.  He has won a number of games for this team in the clutch.  He is just prone to cold spells.  
    • Aristotelian
      Orioles try to come to grips with another playoff sweep and pending losses within clubhouse

      By Aristotelian · Posted

      OK, there won't be 30 making actual bids but Burnes is free to sign with any team at the highest price. There is one very big reason he won't sign with us, which is money. We do have payroll flexibility but that evaporates if we put $40m/year in one player. I would love this if it happens but my expectations are very low. Even if we are "one of the favorites", say the final four, we only have a 25% chance. Probably lower if any of the others are in larger markets. So I have to agree with Roch's assessment. 
    • waroriole
      Ryan Mountcastle 2024

      By waroriole · Posted

      In that case the question could be do we pay Mountcastle 6-7M or do we pay a AAAA guy league minimum and use his money on RP. The purpose of keeping Mountcastle was the hope he would eventually break out and have a career year. He’s regressing offensively and the odds of that breakout are shrinking. 
    • casadeozo
      Colton Cowser 2024

      By casadeozo · Posted

      With his season now over, curious what happened to the version of Cowser we drafted. looking at his scouting report coming out of Sam Houston State, the concern with him was would his power translate to MLB while his plate discipline and ability to draw walks being a plus. Certainly were concerns about the strikeouts but nowhere near the concerns of someone like Honeycutt.    He finishes the year with 52 walks and 172 strikeouts, with a 30% K rate. He was near the top of the league in strikeouts for most of the year.  is this purely his issues with off speed pitches? Can this be improved or do we accept the awful strikeouts and laud the plus defense.
    • LookitsPuck
      Elias and Hyde address the media today

      By LookitsPuck · Posted

      I want to also address the Harper point. I'm talking about RISP, not "late and close". We can talk about high leverage/late and close in a diff convo, but strictly RISP: Bryce Harper 2023: 272/.803 2024: 331/ 1.122 2023 was a goofy year for Harper coming off of Tommy John. He looked good in April, but was a disaster in May/June before finishing the season on fire that year. I don't think he's a good case study for your example. Besides, I'm not talking singular player performance. I'm talking as a team which is far less susceptible to SSS and "chance". FWIW, I do think luck somewhat plays into this.  But let's look at this as a team. 1,298 AB with RISP for the O's this year. A 251 BA. Last year they hit 287. That's a 36 point difference. Yeah, only 3.6%. But let's look at what 3.6% means with that many AB. That means: 47 extra hits. I don't believe that 47 hits explains "luck" or "chance". Maybe for certain hitters in certain situations. There is an element of BABIP here. In 2024, it was 317. This year? 289. So, if we truly believe 300 is league average, they were a little unlucky this year, and somewhat lucky last year. But we are still talking about a dramatic dropoff. Now, is that because of playing more rookies this year? Because of the injuries? Very possibly. And in a 2 game series that can rear its ugly head. But there was nothing unlucky about yesterday or the day before. They just came up completely empty. Maybe the only unlucky situations were Ramon and Westy rips being caught.
    • turtlebowl
      Where are the pollyannas?

      By turtlebowl · Posted

      I mentioned this once before but if you follow high end D1 softball the game has changed dramatically because the pitching is so dominate.  The theory is, you aren't going to score a bunch of runs by stringing singles together so most top programs only recruit athletes with game changing power or speed.  The speed aspect is important because you can turn a single into a double by stealing so now it only takes 2 hits to score a run instead of 3.   The O's lower minors seem to be stacked with guys that can steal bases so maybe that will be the change in philosophy moving forward.   It is just a thought but maybe the organization see's the pitching trend that is dominating because of the bullpen usage and OBP and runs scored across the board are down.  So stack your team with power and or speed and not much else matters.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...